Good day Hiveians!
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This is the second part to my previous post "Hive after the big crash"
In it we argued for a $5+ Hive target for this summer (or winter if you are living in the southern hemisphere ;) In this post I want to argue why this target is backed up by multiple factors and also have another look at the "fractal change" for Hive.
Let's actually start with this second point. In the post linked above I argued that Hive's fractal shifted recently. Have a look at the chart here again:
Now with more data it seems that this "shift" hasn't quite happened (yet?). The weekly chart still clearly shows the first fractal type. We'll have to wait and see if there are any big changes over the next months and years. What this means in practice, is that I would still expect this shape for the big and final push upwards in the next months. The problem with this fractal is that there is almost no chance to catch the peak; the second peak is also quite short, so be prepared if you want to sell at the top level. If you agree on my time line, you should probably power down some hive to have some liquid for May-August.
In the above chart we can also see how "beautifully" prices held at the long support line (it's the thicker blue horizontal line). This should be the base for the future push upwards.
Now the second point
What "evidence" do we have for a $5-$10 Hive?
Well first, there are the trend lines. Looking at the chart above we can see a very clear channel moving upwards. So far two times price has touched/established this trend line and it seems reasonable to assume that this could be a future target. For the summer time frame this would implicate a ~$5 area.
Second, there are fibonacci retracements that we can use. For Hive this seems to work very well. Applying this mehtod to Hive we get one retracement from "1" that predicts very well "2"
We can apply this for "2" as well to see where the possible price range for "3" is. When we do this we get this:
The retracement for "2" gets us the peak for "3" at around $10. This is higher than the $5 I argued in yesterdays post which I have said was a rather conservative outlook. This price range also fits well within the outer trend line for the previous peaks... So this is a target to watch out as well.
But beware, prices will very likely not hover around that area for long if this happens!
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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