Good day Hiveians!
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So we got the breakout that I was expecting
Everything was aligning for Hive to break out higher and the high of ~$1.25 was therefore no surprise. Coins/Tokens are almost guaranteed for such a price action once important resistances fall. But there is something else that I want to point attention to.
If you have been looking at Hive charts at all there is a peculiar curiosity that I have not yet seen discussed. It is the lack of volume since the ATH of $3.4. This is obvious when looking at the weekly chart going back the last years.
We see a huge drop off in trading volume since the peak (at the bottom of the chart). Volume was always much more elevated (except a brief period at the end of 2020) for impulsive as well as corrective waves. But starting in November 2021 volume dropped off.
This lack of volume affects price action as we are not seeing the price spikes that we saw before. Compare the volume high trading period with the lower one. There are many spikes evident in the former (to both sides), but almost none in the latter (blue oval).
What does this mean?
There are probably many possibilities as to why we are seeing this. The obvious one being that there is less interest in Hive. Hive is simply not traded as much as before. Note that this is evident across all major exchanges. I have checked Bittrex and Huobi as well with the same result. What is odd is that this pattern emerged just right after the big spike to $3.4. To me this could indicate that perhaps only several players (one person?!) stopped trading Hive after they sold their bag(s). If so, this would be somewhat unfortunate for Hive as we might get less buying pressure (which we are already seeing) not elevating the price as much as in the past. So far the lack in volume has not prevented the bigger corrections we are used to seeing for Hive as well. So I am seeing this rather as a negative. However, if my speculation is true, it could also mean that Hive could now be better distributed among more traders. We simply have to grow Hive and with that growth should also return a more diversified trader base. This is actually better for long term price development. Besides this, the former entity(ies) could also return, moving the price more once again.
We saw the breakout, but it seems that price was stopped just short of the big push. Nevertheless, a retesting of the former resistance is quite normal and if it holds, we should see the bigger push quite soon (seen here as the green arrow). I am still confident that we will see the price climax in summer of this year.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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