Good day Hiveians!
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This is an update to last month's post
I don't want to change anything big from that analysis there, but since Hive just made a lower low against BTC I just wanted to share you my view on why I don't think this is a bearish development. As such I'll first post the chart from last month here again:
Since first analyzing the hive/btc chart I noticed a very strong 3 wave pattern. We can see it in the waves leading to the top as well as the bottom. As you will see in the updated chart below, however, the third wave that we are in now is still now quite finished. It's very hard to call the end of that movement since pattern analysis is not exact science. The general idea behind this analysis is that I think we will see a strong reversal pattern once this wave completes. See the last post about some more details.
Now for the updated chart:
We see a strong red candle for this week even though Hive is up quite a bit from last week. The reason of course is that BTC went up much more relative to Hive. The reason why this is not bearish for me is that this candle, should it close at these levels, gives us the required low to finally call this wave completed. This does not mean that price could do one more step down, but the general wave pattern should be very near completion, since this candle will then have closed lower than the second wave low. When we look at this area, we can also see horizontal support from the spring/summer of 2021. It's an area that has seen support and resistance in the past.
We can also see that should this thrid wave come to a close soon, it would fall in alignment of previous strong performances that happened in October-December. Here is my outlook for this chart:
After confirming the bottom and completion of this wave, I would expect a strong reversal and the price ratio reaching at least the thicker blue line. Of course the even better scenario would be for the ratio to head towards the thin blue line and beyond as well. If so, we will have an exciting 2024 ahead of us!
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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