Good day Hiveians!
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Yesterday we had a look at Hive's upward price movement
It is one of the strongest impulse waves in Hive's history with almost all days in recent weeks being green! But normally this is followed by a very strong correction - the difference this time seems to be that the momentum is still ongoing and therefore more sustained. In this post I want to outline 3 most likely scenarios of where I think price will be heading in 2023.
But before doing that let's see what Hive has been doing so far. When we look at the period between 2021 and 2022 we can see the main fractal for Hive. It is one big impulse wave and one correction ending in a higher low (this shape may not be completed if Hive closes below 25 cents this year). The impulse wave is also shorter as the correction. All in all there was an almost 2800% gain and a 92% correction.
We can also subdivide this movement into smaller bits. Here is one way of doing it:
My main hypothesis is that Hive will repeat this fractal at a larger scale for the next bull cycle peaking in 2025 as well as the bear cycle after it. You can basically think of this fractal between 2021 and 2022 as the first subwave of the larger fractal. If so, then we should see Hive coming out of the correction in January of this year and entering the next impulse wave.
We could then expect the future movement to look something like this:
The height of these columns is rather big as this marks the degree of uncertainty.
3 Scenarios
Here are the three scenarios which I think could transpire for 2023. They are sorted with likelihood.
- Scenario 1 (most likely)
- Scenario 2 (less likely)
- Scenario 3 (least likely)
Scenario 1 seems quite plausible. Nothing is too spectacular as a high of 60-70 cents and a fall back to 30-40 cents seems entirely reasonable. The correction could also last longer until fall/winter, before another impulse wave starts. Scenario 2 is already a bit more unlikely as it would suggest a run up to over $2 in the next months. But it would also have a very deep correction back to about 50 cents before heading up again. Scenario 3 seems to me the most unlikely, since price would be heading towards 15 cents before coming out of the bigger correction. While possible, this would almost need a black swan type event to unfold. Of course with the Ukraine war and economic uncertainty currently, this is definitely on the table...
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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