Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
R.I.P. HIVE/BTC was the topic of my last post
And the HIVE/BTC ratio continued to drop like a stone as anticipated. We are now at a first potential reversal threshold with the second one being almost another 50% drop... that wouldn't be just awful to watch, but we could actually make a lower low on the chart which is never fantastic (unless you are holding BTC).
When we look at the chart, we can see that the last time price really moved up again was in early 2021. It was an impulse wave that lasted for almost one year - since then it has been more than 2 years of corrections. The important signal I see in the chart is how the last cycle ended and began. It was with a big crash and a sudden reversal - a "V" shaped recovery.
This is how I think we could see the next phase play out again. Apparently price has to fall really hard before Hive has a chance to redeem itself. And so far it's looking good for that: price has declined at an ever fast pace and only some days ago began its recovery. We can, however, really know if the bottom was in or not in hindsight and on the weekly chart. So for now I present you with a chance for a reversal. It may happen, but the ratio could also drop quite a bit more.
Since the current ratio sits at the infamous 0.236 fib ratio, I am giving the first scenario (reversal at current levels) a higher chance. Nevertheless, I don't feel very confident that Hive will break out to higher highs. We could see a 3 wave top pattern with Hive losing steam in the 0.00002 area. But that might still translate into a $5+price for Hive depending on where BTC is heading in this bull.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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