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Watching SPS is like watching a dumpster fire
It just keeps getting worse :)
But! Last week was the first green weekly candle after 12 weeks of red. That itself does not entail hope of course, but the broader development at Splinterlands seems to be going in the right direction again, slowly. We saw Battles 2.0 yesterday which looks awesome! It feels like a completely new game. Then we have Dec-B which will probably burn ~1 billion Dec and leaves about still 5 billion left before the SPS>DEC burn mechanic can go into effect. Then there is LAND that seems to be on schedule and of course Tower Defense that will launch probably in Q2/3.
Overall this means that currently the Splinterlands economy is in a terribel state, but that fixes (not just patches) are coming this year. Currently, this has to be the hardest moment for Splinterlands asset holders, but there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel. There could be a complete 180 in 9 months+. So we should hang in there...
The Fall to ~2 cents was expected
Ever since the support at ~3-4 cents failed that was clear. I posted a chart back then:
While the drop wasn't quite as steep as shown here, the movement down to ~2 cents was confirmed. The good news is that price will not go all the way down to the bottom support which would be now at sub 2 cents. There seems to be a soft support at current levels due to the fact that SPS is completely undervalued at these levels. Again, not in the current state, but in the future state which will remove most of the rampant inflation we are seeing now.
The weekly chart looks like this:
The first green candle was made last week, and it seems that price could bounce off current levels. I see a fractal here as well. There are three fractals that repeated with the first and third one resembling the most:
If this continues we would see a fourth one playing out like this:
This would once again broaden the falling wedge, but still not reverse trend. We need something like what we saw in August: a higher lows. Ultimately this did not prevent SPS from falling to lower lows, but I think this makes sense due to the inflation we are seeing.
The situation could be quite different in spring when we could again be at a cross way: GLS progression, TD development (possible playable release) and LAND 1.0. This all could help the price of SPS stabilize. In the best scenario we would establish an ascending channel that would break us free from the falling wedge.
For this we need a higher low. I don't think that this falling wedge can continue for much longer since it would mean that SPS would fall to 1 cent. This is so ridiculous that I don't think the market would allow for it.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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