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SPS is not really going anywhere it seems
But we have known this since the high inflation became apparent for SPS. Distributing 1 million (!) of the token to users is not really a good idea it seems. We are now 1/3 of the way of distributing the total 3 billion (!) tokens to players and it will still take a couple of years to get there. The only way that can mitigate the high inflation is by burning the token. There are several ways of doing that like starting the SPS > DEC burn mechanic flywheel or burning it through the sales of validator node licenses etc. So far these haven't really gone into effect or don't amount to much when compared to the high inflation. See @aftersound's YT channel where he has shown that the flywheel won't be enough to "combat" the high inflation.
In March we saw that SPS finally broke out of the falling wedge. This still holds true, but the price is now dangerously close to making lower lows. If so, the price is stuck dead in the water once again. I don't think that price can actually drop much more than 2 cents though. It seems that this price is a rock bottom for the token since there is too much actual value in the economy to let the token devalue much more. But staying at the 2-3 cents level is not very exciting. I honestly have to say that SPS is one of the few tokens I would currently advise against buying. Yes, we have LAND coming up, but that does not necessarily mean SPS will go up a lot.
It seems therefore, simply from a tokenomics standpoint that SPS could very well continue to stay at very low levels for the foreseeable future. There are many different ways that could effect price in the coming years. For example, LAND, Soulkeep, a new influx of players (perhaps due to Rebellion or Battles 2.0), the flywheel and also of course the conclusion of the SPS distribution (although there will probably new ways in which the DAO would distribute SPS, but arguably at a lower rate).
I suspect that price will basically move sideways for the next year or so with a slight upwards movement. The chart also agrees with that:
Price has fallen from about $1 to around 2 cents in the blue falling wedge. I am quite confident that this marks the bottom for SPS. There is simply too much value in the ecosystem to warrant another big drop. But you can also see that price will probably only very slowly start t o climb again. This is seen by the green area that has a very low inclination. For beginning of 2024 the lower area is only at around 3 cents and the top at around 11 cents. The good news I guess is that price will at least not continue to fall. Having a quasi stable like value is something on which one can build. If all goes well, perhaps in 2025 SPS could go to around 20-40 cents again (although this is based on guesswork currently, we will have to wait for some more months to see if we can get a better estimate of the upper boundary of this area). But that's still a long way off and much can happen!
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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