Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
In the past we had a look at the BTC-Moon Cycle connection
Whereas the first analyses have been rather positive regarding this, in the last post we arrived at an actually more conservative/realistic conclusion: there has been a short period for the year 2021 where the moon cycle predicted the movement of BTC with stunning accuracy:
Conservatively we then get for the green phases: 4 misses out of 20 cycles. Which means 16 out of 20 were right. Hence the 80% hit rate. If we dismiss the blue Xs this gives us even only 2 misses or a 90% hit rate!
But when we extend the period of our analysis we see that this relationship deteriorates rather quickly:
If you look at the chart closely you can actually see that the relationship deteriorates quite a bit. For 2020 the correlation is basically almost 0. We had 12 "green" phases and 5 of them had a correlation going in the wrong direction. This means that 7 of 12 were right or a chance of 58% of being successful with using this method.
Recently, the correlation has again taken a hit. Since the crash in June 3 out of 5 cycles were wrong. Overall we can get a picture which shows different time periods of better or worse correlation:
2020 was basically only slightly above chance; then we had the amazing performance at the beginning of 2021 where we has a stunning 10 cycles of accurate predictions. This is also when this connection was popularized on social media. The rest of 2021 and early 2022 was average (the blue Xs could actually still be counted as accurate predictions). And since June we seem to be getting a rather bad correlation once more.
It seems that mother moon's power over BTC is waning once again. Or was there a relationship at all to begin with? I would be wary in using this method for trying to predict the price of BTC in the future. But I will still look into it every now and then. Tagging @edicted here as he often talks about this.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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