2025 has been a disappointment
So far at least... and only for the Alt market. Bitcoin has already made a 600% increase since November 2022. So it's clear this is an Altcoin "problem". There are many reasons for why this cycle is different (e.g., Memecoin mania, ETFs etc.), but here I simply want to give you my main reason for why I am still hopeful for an Altcoin bull run.
I already talked about it last month. It's nothing fancy - it's simply a look at the OTHERS chart (i.e. Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding the TOP 10). This is one of the most important charts for Alts and it's quite obvious that we can observce a cyclical pattern:
That is a 1-2-3 movement before the breakout and a new ATH. Different to last time, I am measuring the time from the lowest point in the retracement which is after the "1". This gives us
- 976 days
- 1066 days
to the next ATH. For the third cycle this could be (by extending the increasing time frame) around 1130+ days and would nicely fit into the Winter time frame, i.e. January 2026. I would even be open to extending this window into May of 2026 since spring has often been a bullish month. But for now the ATH still seems to be positioned for winter 2025/26.
In other words, we haven't seen a bull run for Alts yet! 3 years of stagnation has been a hard toll on any hodler. But it seems unlikely for the market to have topped off here. This is especially so, since we also saw a major dip just before the breakout in the last cycle. A 70% drop to be exact -albeit this was aggravated by the Corona crisis back then. Excluding the wick we get a 50% drop. And guess what? We are currently sitting in a 50% drop as well!
It's clear to me that hodling for another half a year or so is a no brainer atm. To miss out of this potential rally could mean to have hodled the last 3 years in vein. If so, we could see something like this:
Conclusion
Now is not the time for converting into a paper hand. If anything "buying the dip" is probably a good strategy (although most people are probably too frustrated/afraid of doing that or simply lack funds from doing this in the last years...) My bet has always been for a 2025 bull run - and I am sticking to that unless we see a major downtrend in the next few months.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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