Did you miss me?
I was hiding under a rock, because things did not go as planned...
You know that slightly overplayed and overrated song that goes.... Nobody said it was easy....
Well, that is exactly how I feel atm.
For years, I have been waiting for that bull market to take those bear blues away. All sunshine, rainbows, and unicorns....BTC would do its four-year dance, and ALTs will follow.
Then $Trump happened.... $TRUMP is the epitome of everything that was wrong with crypto this last year.
Memecoin mania, & pump.dump.trump messed everything up
I felt like Crypto Stalin with my 5-year Crypto plan. The cycle screwed me back in 2022, so I kept my enemy close and trusted in cycles.
And I told you all about it....
I wanted to sell everything in my trading wallet, or at least 80% by the 5th of May 2025, 05.05.2025!
I expected the boom to be in March 2025, but the biggest boom we saw so far was Dec 2024. At least for ALT coins, which are supposed to be the money makers when things go PARABO.
My aim for BTC was not so bad; I calculated a conservative 125K to be the peak, way before ETFs were even a thing. Just doing the math. BTC got to $108,786, and we did not have the Q4 pump yet.
To Buy or Not To Buy?
So BTC is still on my expected trajectory, on its way to $120 K. Should you buy now?
NAF:I am not buying. I bought my BTC at an average of 30K, and I did my math because 30K should be near the bottom of the next bear market.
But my ALTS, please donΒ΄t even ask.
Yes, this cycle is much more stable, so we take slow steps, well, BTC takes slow steps. But ALTS are almost back at bear market lows, and in my previous posts, I explained why.
Still, there is a part of me that has high hopes for a beautiful ALTSZN, if all is a little delayed, it might still come...it might...it might.
So, did I do the right thing selling since November 5th? I certainly did, I took all the XΒ΄s on OM before the dump, I took a nice 5X on PHA, and SUI. A 4X on the BTC I was holding in my trading wallet, of which I bought back half with a 20% discount. So all in all, I took profit as planned.
5th of May
May The 5TH came, the Dutch celebrated their 80th National Liberation Day, and Mexicans did their thingy, and I looked at my stacks.
I should have sold my Gold, I should have sold my stocks.... Gold peaked, but where would I put that money if I sold, I need to stay diversified.
Stocks, man, what a mess.
I thought I tried something new. I started buying my previous company's stock with a 15% employee discount and a tax benefit. And I am still down 15% on my purchases. I want to sell and move the money into some other funds, but selling at a loss, ughh.
BTC & ALTs, the only things I sold, and tbh I feel pretty good about that. I am now holding 36% in stables, and that is after buying the Tariff Dip. On the 5th of November 2024, that was 0.01%.
My current stablecoin holdings exceed my Altcoin investments.
Of course, many investments went belly up, mostly those where I invested time and took profit in the past cycle, but kept some money on the table. Yes, talking about TORUMΒ΄s XTM and BAKEΒ΄s DFI...hell yeah, those two crumbled to crypto dust.
Luckily, I was not too heavily invested in both anymore, but still, itΒ΄s painful if you remember their worth last cycle. Guess that is why I kept saying, buy the right new coins, not the Dino Poo from last cycle....
if during ALTSZN many will never come close to their ATH ever again.
So from that perspective I look good, but from the perspective that I expected my Dec 2023 $4.5K ALTcoin holdings on Bitvavo Exchange to do a 10X by Dec 2025...ughh. It was a 3X by Dec 2024, and we all know what happened since.
I guess this is exactly what happened to Stalin and his 5 year planning. It will never play out as expected, and you need to be agile.
Agile...after having a five-year plan....
I am so lost.
I mean, I was all ready to sell before May and get the hell out of here till BTC is back down at 30 K.
But now they are telling me that the M2 money supply will go up like me in the morning over the next 2 and maybe even 6 months???
You mean, no summer dipping this year?
You mean, I have 38% in stables, and everything will go up as of now?
Damn, now I feel even more lost.
At least for now, that whole hold thing is not paying off. Unless all you hold is BTC.
I started with 2/3 BTC and 1/3 ALT, and now that is 75/25....but that is the normal route, BTC damnation ehh domination first, when that dumps, altcoins pump.
There have just been so many tell-tale signs that ALTS might never pump like itΒ΄s your party again. That the ball game changed, that 1000 XΒ΄s are out.
That 5 X MAX is the new normal????
And I have not seen any proof that this will change any time soon, and we are nearing the end of this cycle at Max (Verstappen) Speed.
So, within a year, we should have Max(Verstappen) Crash
And we will feel Max Pain
If you have not sold your alts by then, you would feel......
Indeed, like there is nothing left to do but feel.....
Anyway, we are not there yet.
I gladly gave you the heads up, because this game that looks so transparent can be so confusing when you are caught up in it.
For now, I will follow the money, or rather M2 Money Supply, because among all the noise, if that goes up, so will my portfolio.
And as BTC did a nice dominance peak already, but might not have pumped all of it?
At 64% with a downward trend over time, and a 69% last peak, that dominance is about to reach its cycle peak.
So no matter how pessimistic I am, there might be an Altcoin season lurking in the shadows, no 1000 XΒ΄s, but maybe still enough to get close to that 10X I planned to go away with on May The 5TH.
This cycle might be like any other, or totally different. For now, I will trust in cycles and sell on the way up for the next year.
On 5 May 2026, I really want to be in BTC and USDC only....till then I probably feel lost but.....
Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love, and I am out of here!
