Oh that Great Reset.... we are all waiting for it...
But it seems it has already happened in crypto.
No Mo ALT Season
As the crypto verse matures, volatility will diminish and so will your 1000X dreams.
We are seeing the initial impact already, both retail and VCs are no longer getting the returns they dreamed of.
Not everything will moon, those days are in the past....if you did not get rich before...you are now officially late.
The ALT Coin market is ruined as I mentioned several times before, and by the next cycle itΒ΄s regulated, so the crazy gains are out.
The bigger tokens and coins will grow less volatile, so even the smaller gains diminish... your get-rich-quick dream just became a nightmare.
There is hope
Not on a 100X, but there is a chance things will get better at least this year.
Last week I wrote that Trump hit the pause button and that markets need at least six more months to peak.
Crypto bull markets are not unique, itΒ΄s not magic...itΒ΄s just money.
Money flows, and has its own 4 yearish cycles. That is what drives the 4-year crypto cycle, not magic just money circulating,
The four-year crypto cycle aligns with the broader financial cycle and debt restructuring events due to key macroeconomic patterns.
Hereβs how they go hand in hand:
π The Four-Year Crypto Cycle
π Year 1: Post-Halving Boom
π₯ Year 2: Mania & Peak Euphoria
π Year 3: Bear Market & Crash
π’ Year 4: Accumulation & Debt Reset
π° The Traditional Financial Cycle & Debt Restructuring
The global financial system also follows roughly four-year cycles, often influenced by:
- Debt accumulation & tightening (boom period, leading to speculation).
- Debt defaults & restructuring (bust period, where weak institutions collapse).
- Central bank intervention (rate cuts, bailouts, and liquidity injections).
How This Connects to Crypto:
- Crypto booms when liquidity is abundant (e.g., QE in 2020 led to a crypto supercycle).
- Crypto crashes when liquidity tightens (e.g., Fed rate hikes in 2022 triggered a crypto bear market).
- Governments and institutions reset debt and inject liquidity every 4-5 years, which conveniently lines up with Bitcoin halvings, pushing capital back into risk assets.
π Real-World Examples of the Overlap
| Year | Bitcoin Halving? | Crypto Cycle Phase | Financial Cycle Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | β Halving | Start of Bull Run | Euro Debt Crisis, Fed QE |
| 2013 | β No Halving | Peak Euphoria | Stock market ATHs |
| 2014 | β No Halving | Bear Market | Chinese debt crisis |
| 2016 | β Halving | Accumulation | Trump election rally |
| 2017 | β No Halving | Crypto Mania | Stock & credit boom |
| 2018 | β No Halving | Bear Market | Fed rate hikes, stock crash |
| 2020 | β Halving | Start of Bull Run | COVID stimulus & money printing |
| 2021 | β No Halving | Euphoria & Crypto ATH | Inflation spikes |
| 2022 | β No Halving | Bear Market & Crash | Fed hikes, recession fears |
| 2024 | β Halving | Accumulation | Rate cuts expected, liquidity returns |
The macro debt cycle and Bitcoinβs halving cycle feed into each other, creating predictable booms and busts every four years.
And then Trump Happened
Trump Happened
The Fed was finally ready to cut rates in 2024 and then Trump happened and inflation became sticky.
Now sticky inflation is one thing, and hard to get rid of so it will slow things down.
Trump is another and just as hard to get rid of, and unlike many expected he also slowed down the recovery and expected 2025 crypto BOOM.
To refinance the debt Trump requires lower interest rates, and Powel our Fed Friend is more interested in less inflation.
Hence we have not so Mexican stand-off
And markets overreact.... so most things dumped.
They dump because of uncertainty, that damn U in FUD. But there is a beautiful big BUTT.
Uncertainty never lasts long....remember COVID
And how quickly we got used to the new normal, and then on top of that we got stimulus.
This is 2020 all over again
Trump dumps markets....
Tariffs raise costs for importers, who often pass them on to consumers.
Higher inflation could pressure the Fed to ease monetary policy further, cutting rates or even restarting QE to offset the slowdown in trade and growth.
Some X users have called this a βstealth QE,β where tariffs inadvertently force liquidity up by weakening the dollar and prompting Fed action. Which is what Trump wants.
The New Normal
So, 2025 could see liquidity climb if central banks juice the system to dodge a tariff-induced slump. Trade wars can cause the Fed and others to open the global liquidity taps wider, China is already doing so.
And on top of it all, due to that U of uncertainty, Trump might be able to strike some deals, create clarity, and by the 2nd of April the new normal will not be as scary as COVID-
Soon we will all accept the new normal again, markets stabilize, rates dump, liquidity flows and we will see that boom...itΒ΄s just gonna happen later than expected.
That is why I had to change and extend my plan.
My Plan
- Move away from Multiple Exchanges
- Move long-term holdings into a cold wallet
- Figure out 2 resilient and trustworthy staking coins
- Sell my Play To Earn deck
- Get my initial investment out
My plan was to get out on time, and not be caught by greed. Based on 2021 the safest time to get out would be March/ April 2025.
Not anymore, with this delay things will look more like 2017. Where the peak happened by the end of the year, maybe even early 2026.
My Plan Does Not Change Just My Timeline
Sell It
The idea to do at least a 5X on my ALTS kinda died...at least for now. And if I am right about Alt SZN it might be forever.
So now I am glad to get my total investment out of my ALTS. So I just keep selling the ALTS I hold on the Bitvavo Exchange.
Yes, even now at this dippiest moment in time, my holdings on that single exchange still cover my investment.
I mean, yes I hoped to get at least 20K out of there by May the 5th 2025. I will not, right now I hold 40% in stables. which is 3/8 of my total $ investment.
Not too bad, but I hope that by extending my timeline to April 1st of 2026 I might do a 3X or more instead of the current 2X.
So what is an annoying Baby to do now?
Nothing!
For now, I will do nothing, I will trust in cycles and have faith in what I foresee unfolding.
My plan to take a break from crypto as of May 2025 got 
ItΒ΄s a wonder that itΒ΄s just my plan, thank god we live in a world again where people no longer get canceled.
The infinite sadness of the lost cancel culture
That is a great title for my third novel....which also has to wait as I am stuck writing this nonsense for another year.
Anyway, I will spend another 6 months grinding because I expect the summer to be as slow as ever. I might even buy a little of the September bottom if any.
Then come October I will move into that selling mindset once again. And start talking about how great I am at taking profit, while all the moon boys call me paperhands.
But I am the Baby With A Plan
I am the Baby that loves blood in the streets.
Years of experience turned me from a trader into an investor, and as I have nothing to lose I will never panic sell.
I play this manipulated game without fear, I do not do leverage or meme casino.
I plan, manage risks, and I might not be smart but I do that one thing very well....
Bikini Bottom Line
In summary:
- Nobody ever got poor taken profit
- Better Sell Too Early than Too Late
- Take money off the table to avoid buying back too early
- Just keep swimming the market will turn one day
- Be a Man even if you are a girl or a pussy, admit your plans were wrong and you need to adjust
Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love and I am out of here!
