At the moment the crypto space reminds me of that meme....
The Toy Story one....
Yes That One
I mean come on, the amount of people acting like itΒ΄s the end of the bull run is insane. And that Dear Reader is exactly why itΒ΄s not the end.
ItΒ΄s Not Over Until The Fat Crypto Lady Sings
The end always comes when everyone is firmly believing we will never stop mooning. When everyone is fully deployed, when there is no more money on the sideline willing to buy in.
That is when the bulls stop running, and right now there is a lot of money on the sideline.
But the headlines say:
Crypto Market Inflows Plummet More Than 50% by End of 2024
Long Time Holders just took profit at 100K, institutions sold to start the new year with clean balance sheets, and many ETF buying institutions have waited a year to get all the necessary approvals and to silently watch if a BTC ETF is something they want to buy into?
Of course, there are some macro issues and the Silk Road BTC overhang is kinda visible. But most people were not fully deployed, & retail just started turning up.
There is just so much FUD and PTSD in this market itΒ΄s sickening, I mean 75% that the top is in??
Yes, after the Trump Pump the market needed a breather, a healthy correction as I hate to call it. That is what we have been seeing, and nothing else.
On top of that there are quite some positives pending:
Trump wants to make the Dollar cheap again.
Plus he is a guy that knows how to get the public rallied up, and he will try to make a booming impression in his first 6 months in office.
This will trigger some similar Global reactions, basically, the first six months of 2025 will be market positive.
FTX to begin distributing $1.2B to creditors after Trump inauguration
Bill proposed for a strategic Bitcoin reserve in New Hampshire and North Dakota
In addition, the first three months of the year have been pretty good for BTC these last four years and I expect a similar pattern for 2025.
The best part, nothing of the above is financial advice because the only advice I give is:
Welcome To Crypto, you never know what you are gonna get....well that and maybe you should listen to the financial advice of the orange man:
Welcome To The ShitShow
It really was, these last 3-4 weeks really were the fudiest shitshow ever.
How many more times do I need to read the Top is In?
I mean seriously, yes the future is slightly priced in but we are getting a pro-crypto government in one of the richest countries in the world.
We are getting rid of Gary G and well Jerome P changes his mind as often as he changes his underwear so I do not really believe in only one rate cut if Trump wants to make the Dollar cheap Again.
But if we get only one, or the scariest of scenarios a rate hike that means that the economy is strong and long-term benefits BTC as well.
I am not saying the temporary bottom is in as really.....we only dropped what?
18K???
That is like 17%!
That is no drop, that is a baby correction, and yes corrections become smaller each cycle but a 20% drop should still be in the cards taking us to 86K BTC.
That is when the money on the sideline sees a new upside and is ready to buy (back) in.
What if I Am Wrong?
First, I am never wrong, but what if all pending positives are not enough to turn the market upward for a bit longer?
Wow, that would make me a legend.
That is also why I do not attribute a high probability to it, but if that happened I would be the Baby who started selling near the top and got 20% of his money out before we slammed into the bear market.
But:
Because I am no legend, not yet I am....
Yeah that is about right, I am a:
Still, as a Shrimp, I Am:
Okay. enough is enough:
I will stop talking in gifs and go back to being silly using just words:
I Sold My BTC
Yes, now itΒ΄s time for you guys to have a laugh because this last days of dumping probably will make my plan of swapping my $600 BTC look bad.
LetΒ΄s See:
Last week BTC was up 7% on the week making it $642, this week we are unexpectedly up 1.7% hence my BTC holding would have been worth $653.
But I swapped that BTC and bought:
I swapped BTC and Bought:
ETH: $150 and last week's worth was $163
Beam $125 and last week's worth was $137
SUI: $175 and last week's worth was $227
SOL: $100 and last week's worth was $114
Curve $50 and last week's worth was $53.5
Last weekΒ΄s total: $694 14% up on average over the week.
ETH: $150 and last week's worth was $163 down 3.5% = $157
Beam $125 and last week's worth was $137 down 7% = $127
SUI: $175 and last week's worth was $227 down 1.3% = $224
SOL: $100 and last week's worth was $114 down 3.5% = $110
Curve $50 and last week's worth was $53 down o.15% = $53
That Totals $671 which means I am up $18 on this trade after a shitty week. It seems BTC is recovering and that normally means ALTS lag a little.
Let's see if my trade remains a smart thing, at least I am less in a loss than I would have been a couple of days ago at 89K.
Playing Smart Not Hard
Yes, I sold all the BTC I held on the Bitvavo exchange but itΒ΄s not all my BTC. If you play this game you need to get two things straight when is BTC near its top and which ALT has more room to move up?
BTC is not an old lady lagging, itΒ΄s the first mover and a very certain mover. It is the safest crypto bet.
So if you bet against BTC you better time it right and be damn sure of yourself.
The thing is:
Making money should be boring, it should be work. Taking profits and compounding those over a longer period. We might never see another ALTSZN and the only way to profit will be through volatility and market trends.
That is why I started selling now the trend is up. And why I want to have sold all my ALTS on my Bitvavo exchange, which is the majority of my ALT portfolio by May The Fith as I expect a trend reversal over the summer.
Unfortunately in the dipshit market we had last week I did not sell a damn thing, I even had some old buy orders being filled so I am still at 18% of my holdings sold.
But there seems to be some light, maybe 89K was the bottom....
Maybe this week I can sell those buys at a nice 20% profit.
Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love and I am out of here!
