It is time to write my technical analysis of HIVE's price action. This time, I will be using five indicators:
Fibonacci Retracement
Series of Higher Lows and Highs
Trendline
Resistance, and
Elliot Wave Theory
Fibonacci Retracement
Even though I was too early in my trade entry, I don't worry because HIVE is a solid token that has a long-term prospect. Unlike DOMO, I got hyped by one Telegram channel spreading that the token could potentially reach $1 in case Trump wins the election. However, as I observed its price action since 15 September, I realized that the token is manipulated. I suspect that a few are controlling the token's price action.
Realizing this, I changed my strategy. I never chase the price. Instead, I have been posting a buy order near the floor, and once the price bounces 10%, I immediately sell it. As a result of my 21 days of trading, out of 31 trades, I lost 4 times but gained 27 times. Of course, my initial loss was big. It was $10.05. However, overall, I gained $16 in 21 days of trading.
In the case of $HVE, I made two mistakes:
One, I misplaced the starting price of the Fibonacci retracement, making the 61.8% pullback at 0.1960 and the 78.6% retracement at 0.1880, which I used as my entry price on 30 September and 02 October, respectively.
My second mistake was that I was too positive that the price of HIVE would bounce immediately. I was in a hurry to enter the trade.
After carefully checking the price action of Hive, I realized that the current rally started not on 16 September but twelve days earlier, and that was on 04 September. Making the price on that day the beginning of the rally, a technical analyst would come up with a different 61.8% Fibo retracement, and that's 0.1910.
In most bullish stocks, that line is generally respected. However, in the case of HIVE, what is unusual is becoming common. In that case, a more cautious trader would use the 78.6% retracement and that would fall at 0.1767. This time, the bears respected that number and the selling stopped at 0.1774.
Series of Higher Lows and Highs
In my post ten days ago, I mentioned that Hive was forming a series of higher lows:
0.1469 on 5 August
0.1583 on 4 September
0.1697 on 16 September, and
0.1930 on 23 September
I was wrong in that last number. That was premature. The bears were not satisfied with pushing HIVE just near the 0.1930 area. Instead, the sellers got exhausted only after reaching 0.1774. As such, our analysis based on higher lows still stands as long as the 16 September low at 0.1697 will remain intact. And so we have four higher lows now and the 03 October price at 0.1774 has just been added in that series.
Resistance and Trendline
The bulls will have another chance to break the 0.2381 resistance. And I expect it to take place within a month.
As for the trendline, as already mentioned in my previous article, as far as long-term price direction, Hive remains in a downtrend. Only if HIVE breaks the 200-day moving average at 0.2581, can we say that the long-term trend has already shifted.
Observing the trend line, 0.1820 provides support. It was temporarily broken for two consecutive days, 02 and 03 October, but the price immediately returned up to the trendline. And so, both the short-term and mid-term directions of HIVE remain bullish.
Elliott Wave Theory
Turning our attention to Elliot Wave Theory, I included the price history of Hive from 05 August for us to see a broader picture. As you can see, for 19 days, from 05 August to 24 August, five impulse waves (e.g. Waves 1 to 5) have been formed, followed by three corrective waves (e.g. Waves A to C) from 24 August to 04 September.
Based on this technical indicator, the current rally started a month and two days ago. A series of five impulse waves has been completed from 04 September to 26 September. It took HIVE 22 days to accomplish that. Naturally, we should not be surprised if that bull run is immediately followed by profit-taking. That explains the correction from 0.2429 high to 0.1774 low within a week.
Instead of being anxious about the price of HIVE in the coming days, we should expect the resumption of the buyers' rally. This is the reason why I don't worry, though I entered the HIVE trade earlier than what the technical indicators show. Besides, I only bought 20 USD worth of HIVE that I intend to sell once the series of five impulse waves is completed.
In summary, in this article, I shared a detailed technical analysis of HIVE's price action using Fibonacci retracement, trendlines, higher lows and highs, resistance, and Elliott Wave Theory. At the same time, I reflected on my trading mistakes and the necessary adjustments I had to make in my trading strategy to achieve profitable outcomes.