The Long-Awaited Open Mainnet
Four days to go before the launch of Pi on Open Mainnet. This has long been delayed. Many uninstalled the app in December 2021 when the expected Mainnet did not happen. It happened, but pioneers failed to distinguish between an enclosed and an open mainnet.
My Journey with Pi Network
Pi Network is the first blockchain community I joined in July 2021. At that time, I was exploring a crypto project that distributes tokens before its launch. It appears to me that Pi satisfies the requirement I was looking for. I have been active for a short time in the network, inviting my friends by sending them a mobile code. Consequently, I was able to come up with a team with 50+ members. After four years, the 55 members shrank to 3.
Market Buzz: Price Speculation and Past Predictions
Now that the core team announced the launch of the token to the Open Mainnet on February 20, Pi is getting attention once again. As I check Reddit and Twitter, the primary concern now is about the price of the token. This reminds me of the two articles I published on Reddit in July 2021:
Comparing Pi with Electroneum (ETN)
In the first article, I shared my initial excitement and cautious approach as a newcomer to Pi Network. Electroneum (ETN) caught my attention and caused me to compare it with Pi. I identified similarities and differences between the two. They share the same features like mobile mining, user-friendly apps, and mass adoption goals. However, the key differences include the absence of ICO on Pi’s part, ETN’s slower user growth, and Pi’s dislike for gaming and gambling apps. In short, while both projects share common features, their structural and strategic differences will likely lead to different market outcomes. I shared these insights with my team to temper their unrealistic expectations.
Pi’s Price Predictions: Theories and Calculations
The second article is most relevant to the current interest in Pi’s market price. Pi price prediction and warning posts are attracting commenters on Reddit. Some forecast as far as $80, and some bash Pi with a $0.0000005 valuation. As for me, if Pi touches $0.10, I would be grateful, though I prefer $0.314. Reaching $3.14 will be a dream come true for me, though I am clueless as to the basis of how Pi can attain such a price.
In my second article, I explore the wide-ranging price forecasts for Pi Network, from as low as $0.00004743 (comparable to KIN) to as high as $100.00 (popularized on Facebook). Some skeptics see Pi’s vision as unrealistic, while supporters highlight its unique aspects, such as validated apps, its exchange, blockchain, and low-energy mining.
As for Pi’s market price, I find an accountant's analysis intriguing. James Mayo made two price forecasts. In his first video, he mentioned that Pi's price would be 1.66 USD. And then in another video, James Mayo gave a different price. This time, it is 1.71 USD. This is how I summarized on Reddit the basis for his analysis:
The good thing with this latter video is he mentioned the law of demand and supply in determining Pi's price. After careful computation, he came up with a total supply of 83.5B Pi coins. To determine the demand, he used this equation: Price divided by Supply. But the problem is Pi has no price yet. How can he divide the supply from the price? I am not sure if his approach is valid but he compared Pi with Stellar and according to him, this kind of equation is also used in other cryptocurrencies and the result is more or less the same. At the time of his computation, Stellar has a price of 0.46 USD and the total supply of coins is 22.4B. He divided the price by the supply and came up with the following computation: 0.0000000021%. He used the same % in computing Pi’s price by multiplying it with the total supply and the result is 1.71 USD.
So far, that’s the price speculation four years ago. Now that the network has announced its Open Mainnet launch, it is just natural that people get excited about this. I think the warning of one Redditor four years ago deserves to be heard. Just like what happened to Tap2Earn games, many are bound to be disappointed when unrealistic expectations are frustrated by the reality on February 20.
Reality Check: Supply, Lockups, and Market Impact
One commenter on Reddit claimed that Pi's supply is 5.01 billion and 4.17 billion is locked. The quantity of Pi that will be available on February 20 is 843.72 million, 16.9% of the total supply.
In my case, I mined a total of 5,680 Pi, but 4,921 are unverified because, as I mentioned above, most members of my team either abandoned the app or forgot their usernames and passwords. Not only that, out of 745 migrated Pi, 50% of that is locked, and so even though I want to sell on February 20, the maximum amount I can sell is 372.5. I see such quantity as insignificant. How about if my case is not unique and most pioneers only hold a small number of Pi? I think only the core team and the big holders of Pi can crash its price.
If you are curious about Pi Network, you can download the app by following this link. You also need to have a Bitget account where you can transfer your Pi from your Pi wallet to a crypto exchange and exchange it for your currency.