This was a post that I have been meaning to write for a few days... and now, I have a bit of extra time now that most of my work (I'm a musician...) has been cancelled for the forseeable future!
First of all, I'm not going to get into conspiracy theories about the Corona-virus... let me just say that I trust the CDC, doctors and experts more than a sensational YouTube video. I've seen some really idiotic things being shared around... but I'm not an internet warrior, and I just don't bother to engage on that sort of thing...
I'm not a doctor, but I have friends and family who do work in healthcare (ICU, Public Health and Infectious Diseases....)... these are the people who just get the job done without needing to put out Social Media and YouTube posts and about their grand visions. The sorts of people whose job well-done results in things NOT happening...
I think that people need to really get some things clear about the Coronavirus... mostly about the risks, which are both at a personal level and societal level, both directly and indirectly. Especially with the amount of mis-information and bravado that is going around. Much of it seems to stem from the usual misunderstanding of how Statistics and Probability work (real statistics, not marketing and political "statistics") and how small individual probabilities can result in near large-scale certainties.
Sadly, much of this story follows the well-trodden path of "Doesn't affect me, don't give a shit for unseen consequences" that is common to most rejections of Public Health measures (and climate change and economic inequality...).
Individual Risk
Unless you are in a high risk group (aged or pre-existing conditions), you are not really at much of a risk... The official death rate (across all groups...) is on the order of 2-4 percent with local variations... however, this is much likely lower due to the low certainty in the reported figures (which would make the death rate lower). However, that said... it is still a higher rate than seasonal flu.
... but seasonal flu has killed more people right? Yes, in absolute numbers that is currently true... with the emphasis on "currently". The absolute death numbers are low because absolute infected numbers are low (quarantining and other measures)... but with higher infections at a higher rate (due to lack of existing immune response) this could change relatively quickly if things got out of hand. Another way to put it... in the world, we have roughly on the order of 130,000 infected... seasonal flu affects several orders of magnitudes more! If this happened with coronavirus, we would be telling a VERY different story!
... plus, even the lower adjusted overall mortality rate is still roughly 10 times that of influenza...
Of course, the death rate is much higher for those with pre-existing conditions and the older population. Which means, that if a healthy younger individual gets sick... well, it is little risk for them individually, but it increases the risk of infection for the at-risk groups.
Again, maybe you don't really care about that... but you should, it is the same rational behind the herd immunity for vaccination programmes. It is not to necessarily protect the individual (although that is a useful side effect) it is more to protect the weak and at-risk groups. But if you don't see that directly, then it is easier to see the "curtailing" of individual freedom and not the unseen consequences of such "choice". It is the same in economic spheres, we don't care (much...) about the workers that were harmed in extracting the minerals required for our mobile phones and electronics... because we don't see it.
Societal Risk
Well... the most immediate problem will be the impact to the healthcare systems of countries. However, with currently low numbers of infected, and thus low numbers of hospital admissions, the healthcare system (except in Italy...) isn't overloaded. However, for various reasons, the healthcare system is NOT designed and funded to be operating in stretch mode for long periods of time. This is going to put a strain on the system... it isn't because of the people who get a little fever and then get better... it is the at-risk groups who will need intubation and help with respiratory problems. Again, not a problem yet, as the infected numbers are low... but run the numbers, it can and will get out of hand if the infected numbers increase out of hand. This is addition to dealing with the normal load of hospitalisations that are ordinarily required... and the lower number of active and healthy healthcare workers... .
... and then there is the impact to economies as the supply shock feeds through the system. This not the GFC from which Bitcoin was born, that was a demand-side shock. This is going to be different... and when economies tumble... well, strange things can happen in the political and the societal interation levels....
There will be people with compelling narratives about blame and fault... that will serve to demonise certain sectors of the population, this always happens... there will be those who try to capitalise on the chaos... but we don't have to be one of the predators and we don't have to support them by agreeing to their comforting stories about division.
Conclusion
Don't get me wrong... there are people who will face a difficult decision between working and quarantining. Freelancers (like me...) are not protected from loss of work... times like this, I wish I had a salaried job! I do think that governments need to step in and help here if they are want to strengthen the Public Health position. On the other hand, we were prepared for this... and can ride out the storm for a little bit!
So, there are few things that we can do in the health sense... we will probably get sick... just don't go out of your way to do it... and definitely don't think that this is just some sort of stupid thing that isn't anything to worry about. On an individual level, there is little risk (unless you are in one of the special groups...) and little impact... however, the sum total of all these little impacts will lead to a pretty large consequence for societies and the at-risk groups. Maybe that is something to think about...
Times like this (also like STEEM/TRON!) brings out the best and the worst in all of us... think about this as things progress and the dust starts to settle a bit, and as recession and economies start to feel the pinch... We should stand together and support each other and the weakest in our societies, even if we don't see the consequences of our "little" actions. Resist the urge for "convenient" explanations and "political" capitalisations... there will be some of us who will use this to divide society and demonise certain parts of our grouping, this is not the way out... but will lead to a worse situation for everyone.
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