From the moment humankind realised the vast sparkling sea lights we observe in the night sky, are potential homes to worlds such as our own, we have asked; where are all the aliens?
The physicist Enrico Fermi famously postulated the question, asking why, if there are so many stars in our galaxy, and millions of those are just like our own sun. Why then have we not seen any evidence of a fellow, intelligent, alien species?
The question has been pondered upon by many in the prevailing decades since Fermi first stated his paradox, and has never been answered to much satisfaction.
However, maybe the most pertinent question to ask isn't, where are all the aliens? It is; what does first contact with an alien species look like?
The X-Files
A couple of years ago the United States Navy declassified a bunch of files that included video taken from the cockpits of military aircraft, of what appear to be a collection of Unidentified Flying Objects. Many people who've viewed the footage are declaring this to be the proof we have so desperately sought, that we are not alone in the universe.
However there is a saying in the astrophysics community;
It's never aliens, till it's aliens.
This basically means, until we get absolutely conclusive proof, be that little green men landing on the White House lawn, or an exotic alloy, or strange technology never seen before on Earth, then we just have to assume that we still haven't seen aliens.
I have watched the videos many times, and whilst I'd love to say they're conclusive proof of aliens visiting us, it is hard to keep that notion whilst thinking rationally. There are unfortunately other possible explanations, perhaps not very satisfying ones, however their presence leaves enough doubt.
However let's imagine for a moment, that at least one of the videos was indeed a shot of some kind of alien craft.
The question is; why didn't they stop to say hello?
In order to answer that question, I invite you to indulge me in a little thought experiment.
The Case For Contact
Let us imagine that we are a thousand years into the future. The human race has managed to socially evolve to a point that we have no wars, and technology has given us an abundance that makes a mockery to the need for money.
Without constant squabbling about resources or petty economics, we are left free to explore our own solar system and beyond. There are human colonies from Venus to Jupiter, and then one day, we crack interstellar travel.
In such a scenario it is not unreasonable to think that the same selfish things that drive us now, would not be so prevalent in such a future, therefore our desire to conquer would be replaced with one to explore and learn.
It would also not be such a stretch to imagine that in this future, were we to come across a species that were at a technological level similar to the one we are at now, we probably wouldn't talk to them.
Or would we?
The Prime Directive
Your ship drops out of hyperspace and you arrive in a system roughly fifteen thousand light years from Earth. In front of you is a small yellow/orange sun, rather like our own, the ship heads in-system and comes across a planet; let's steal from Futurama and call it Omnicron.
For the moment, you remain hidden on the edge of their system, more than twenty four light hours away from Omnicron. Your ship sends probes down to the planet to explore.
The data received shows you that there is a plethora of life on Omnicron, and there appears to be a clearly dominant and intelligent species. You see signs that they have visited one of their three moons, and have a number of satellites in orbit. You even see that, due to the smaller gravitational effect on Omnicron, they have managed to build a space elevator, and have a space station around their planet, and a moon base.
This all seems great, so you move onto the data the ship has managed to mine from their archives and communication streams. You discover a complex political structure, and many warring factions spread across the hundreds of countries on Omnicron.
Along with political instability, there is also a great economic disparity between the haves, and have-nots, billions of them haven't even got access to clean water.
On the one hand there is a case for active contact, you and your crew could fly down there, show them they're not alone in the universe and help them to reach the peace and success that you and the rest of humankind has achieved.
However, there is just as strong a case to leave them well alone. Whilst it is true that your appearance could help a lot of sentient life on the planet, if you do make active contact, you will change the future of that species. They will now develop at your pace, they will literally have you to thank for every advancement they make. That in itself is a large enough moral question to stop you rushing in.
Also, what if they're simply not ready to have as much power as you are about to give them? Maybe they are so far behind in their development, that the Omnicronians simply use their new found technological riches to cause havoc and destruction. Maybe they use it to wipe out other species on the planet, along with themselves.
Could you live with that? Knowing that you and your crew were responsible for wiping out an entire species, or even just damaging it beyond repair?
My guess is no. If we do get to this future whereby we have eradicated the need for war and money, via endless energy and abundance of resources. Then we'll be a lot more grown up as a species, and just like you don't give a four year old child a loaded gun (unless you're from Texas), you don't give a primitive alien species access to knowledge that can rip their planet apart.
The sensible thing to do would be to observe, study, learn, leave a marker so you can find it again, and then go on your way.
The Loneliness Of Knowing
Even in the scenario whereby we could jump from star to star instantaneously, it would still take us hundreds of thousands of years to explore just the Milky Way, let alone the billions of other galaxies, and the quadrillions of suns and planets.
This means that we would probably discover that locating another species at roughly the same technological stage as us, with of course the same peaceful sensibilities, might actually prove to be quite difficult. In other words, the hardest thing to do, would be to find someone else to talk to.
The plight of the future interstellar traveller may be that they either come across civilisations that are simply too primitive to contact. Or they're chasing the shadows of more advanced species that are avoiding them for exactly the same reasons.
Of course if life is prevalent throughout the universe, then it will be the same in the Milky Way. If that is indeed the case, there will be someone out there, that is like us. The problem is, the potential distances between civilisations are vast.
Let's say you take one hundred million ants, and randomly scatter them as you fly across the Sahara desert, and then you make a bet on two specific ants meeting each other. What are the odds that ant number 40,302, meets ant number 98,335,212, even if the ants can teleport to random places? The answer is, practically none.
Even if you increased the number of ants to one hundred billion, the size of the Sahara desert as opposed to that of an ant, is so vast that the odds of meeting another ant, let alone a very specific one, are pretty tiny. You could even increase the number of compatible ants, so that any one ant, could meet any one of another million ants, and that still wouldn't push the odds of a significant meeting far above zero.
Yet an ant is far closer to the size of the Sahara desert, than we are to that of the universe, or even just the little old 105,700-light-year-across, Milky Way.
The Wandering Alien
So our thought experiment has shown us that as an interstellar species, we could easily be in a situation whereby we discover a new civilisation, but don't contact it.
We have also seen that we may be in a scenario whereby more advanced species are avoiding contacting us, because we ourselves, are thought too primitive to have meaningful interactions with.
Lastly, this has led us to see that without encountering unthinkable luck, we could spend aeons wandering the galaxy trying to find the one-in-a-hundred-billion alien that is at just the right level to talk to.
Hence if we accept these summations, we have to admit that there aren't any aliens out there who would want to talk to us yet. Because if they're smart enough to get here, any interference from them, could be disastrous. Even saying a quick hello might trigger some kind of global conflict.
It would seem to me then, that the only alien species we are ever likely to come into contact with whilst we're stuck here on Earth, is most probably via radio telescopes. Then, when we do finally get out there, we'll most probably find new civilisations, but we won't meet them.
Humankind will eventually join the host of galactic wanderers, hopping from system to system, looking for some kind of meaningful connection with fellow nomad aliens.
WHAT DO YOU THINK; WERE THE US NAVY VIDEOS EVIDENCE OF INTELLIGENT STAR FARING ALIEN LIFEFORMS? DO YOU BELIEVE AN ALIEN SPECIES ADVANCED ENOUGH TO GET HERE, WOULD BOTHER TALKING TO US?
OR PERHAPS YOU DISAGREE WITH MY ASSESSMENT OF INTERSTELLAR EXPLORATION?
AS EVER, LET ME KNOW BELOW!