One of the best crypto analyses around is Benjamin Cowen’s Into the Cryptoverse. No, he isn't paying me to shill this. I'm posting because I think his content is great.
Ben, whose skill set is based in Math and not Youtube Hype Videos like 99% of other crypto 'thinkers', provides evidence for his claims and bases his positions on data. When he isn’t sure, he admits it. When he wants to remind that this is a “theoretical” situation, he is up front about it.
You can see his latest video here, discussing the upcoming bitcoin halving.
I can’t recommend his stuff enough. There’s ample content on his Youtube page. Check it out!
Anyway, for the halving.
In the past, how did the price change when the halving occurred?
In the first cycle, for the first halving, how long did it take for Bitcoin to increase in price by 100%
About 70 or so days. The first halving event occurred on the 29th of November in 2012. Bitcoin cost $12.45 that day. By February 12th, 2013, the price had doubled.
In the second cycle, for the second halving, how long did it take for Bitcoin to increase in price by 100%?
About 240 days or so. The second halving event occurred on the 10th of July, 2016. Bitcoin was trading at $652.14. In march of 2017, the price broke $1200, going up and down for another month or so. It took almost 300 days to get a solid 2x from the previous halving day.
I think from this information alone, we can deduce some things to expect.
Overall, you probably have a lot of time to invest in Bitcoin if you aren’t invested yet. If the halving represents cycles, and the price increase is based on those cycles, and those cycles are going longer, it will take even longer than previously for Bitcoin to increase 100%. Potentially longer than 365 days!
It is incredibly unlikely that we will see a sudden bullrun this year, based on the halving alone. This isn't even taking into account the looming crisis of capitalism.
That means, in 15 days from now when the halving strikes, we will likely not see ~$20k BTC. We probably wont see that price until 2021-2020. That’s a long time away! Why is this?
Each cycle takes longer to recover the previous ATH. On the level of real people, each cycle takes longer for new buyers to enter the market with fresh money, trading that money for BTC, and creating buy pressure that outweighs sell pressure, which in turn increases the price.
The cycles are getting longer! And the total return is getting smaller.
But, this doesn't mean you should wait forever. If you can get in, start DCAing now. If you can't, try to get in ASAP, but not by FOMO.
Don't be slaves to FOMO. Invest responsibly. And goodluck!