In Part 1, I discussed flattening the curve to prevent needless deaths from overwhelmed hospitals. Since that initial premise of three months ago, there has been a very deliberate campaign to move the goalpost over time regarding a proper response to the COVID-19/SARS-CoV2 pandemic.
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First, we were shown charts stating that a certain number of people would be infected no matter what we did in response, but a temporary economic shutdown and social distancing program would help us get through the disaster.
But then, there was no disaster.
So, if there wasn't much of a curve to flatten in hindsight, what next? People started protesting the economic shutdown. Governments can hand out some of the money they previously stole, hand out pre-emptive refunds for a portion of the money they plans to steal in the future, and print new money out of thin air to steal wealth by devaluing all the currency already in savings and circulation, but they cannot produce wealth. Goods and services are not being produced and provided. Consumption requires prior production, and wealth is the capacity to satisfy wants and needs, not just the number of monetary units floating around.
The economy itself was already in dire straits according to numerous measures. The treasury yield curve inverted in 2019, indicating a drastic shift in time preference to the short term, which historically presages an economic recession within the next year or so. Continuous quantitative easing and near-zero interest rates have been pumping another economic bubble, which I suspect is responsible in large part for the apparent health of the stock markets and housing markets despite other indicators to the contrary. When might that burst? We also have a massive college debt problem as the legacy university system colludes with banks and the government to shackle another generation with mostly-worthless diplomas and huge bills to pay off.
Add to that an entirely artificial economic shutdown, and we have a recipe for major potential repercussions. Small businesses have operating costs that cannot all simply be put on hold. Consumers have needs that governments deemed non-essential in their infinite wisdom arrogance. The web of economic interdependencies is far more complex than these planners can comprehend. The destructive reverberations from this impact are only beginning to show.
There may have been a need to take special measures and change practices to adapt to this pandemic. Remember, I'm not in the camp of coronavirus deniers. However, government is not in a sound position to make blanket statements and issue universal mandates. Conditions vary from state to state, city to city, and region to region. We, the economic actors, are the ones in a position to assess risk and adapt. We, the ones who must accept risk and reward for ourselves as we assess our individual circumstances every day, not politicians who get to rob us for their pay no matter what happens.
But the goalpost kept moving. It wasn't just a temporary shutdown and social distancing. No, it needed a plan from the governors to decide how we would be allowed to resume something resembling a normal life.
To be continued in Part 3
