It has been more than a week since my last update, let's see if there are significant and noteworthy events that can help us decide further on how to invest/trade the market.
I. Middle East Cease Fire and Oil Movement
Tensions in the Middle East arose as Israel targeted nuclear sites in Iran due to non-compliance on nuclear safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran eventually retaliates and the US also joined the fray in support of Israel.
Right now, they are on a ceasefire; hopefully, it won't escalate further. In terms of impact to market, we can take a look at Brent Oil chart which is the global benchmark for Oil, especially representing the Middle East - linked supply.
While oil did shot up mid-June, it went back down immediately as soon as there was a ceasefire last June 23. Oil has been trending down since last year; hopefully it won't start to trend up.
II. US Market
The US market has been doing well despite the global tensions and during the 90-day Tariff pause which resumes on July 9. This shows the market's positive response as the US made deals with UK and China regarding Tariffs. The US market rally is generally driven by tech and communication sectors.
III. Philippine Market
The PSE Index still remains to be trading under the 200 MA since May. Latest close may indicate a bit of strength so it may try to breakout next week as long as the global uncertainties continue to subside.
GDP Growth Outlook Revised Down to 5.5%-6.5%
This reflects the Middle East tensions and the uncertainty with the US Trade Policies.
Rate Cut by 25 Bps
Philippine Central Bank (BSP) cuts its interest rate by 25 bps last June 19. There is more room for cuts in the near future.
IV. Hive
Hive is still trending down even moving away from its 200 day mean. Current levels are similar to last year essentially wiping up significant gains this year.
This is not financial advise. I use this as my trading journal/notes for ongoing reference for the succeeding week. The above technical analysis (charts) are just used for guidance while studying market behavior and trying my hand on market timing. Please Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
- Stock Charts from Investagrams