I was minding my own business last night when this video from EllioTrades came up on my feed ... because I am a long-term swing trader, I thought it was intriguing how relatively late in the four-year cycle pattern that he is planning to make his biggest buy (three years in), and so I listened.
What I learned blew my mind ... I recommend you watch the entire video, but I'll brief what for me were the key points: Elliot sees the old four-year cycle as no longer in play! He quotes the head of Binance as also saying he isn't sure because of the prevalence of institutional investing in Bitcoin now dominating so much of the market, while retail is not jumping back in to provide the later blowoff action previous cycles top off with.
Elliot then went to the chart and showed that Bitcoin instead has been showing us a breakout followed by a 6-9 month consolidation pattern since March 2023 ... a continuation of that would suggest a breakout sometime in July before the cycle would repeat into 2026, thereby telling the bears to go somewhere and sit down instead of roaring in on the old cycle math!
Now, I thought about this based on the existing cycle math ... 2022 was the big year down, and 2023 saw the bottom ... it could just as easily be that institutions caused the rise to start early from that bottom, but that the old cycle is still working. Even on the old cycle math, we know there should be one more big pump before November, assuming a bull run 18 months from the last Bitcoin halving on April 20, 2024.
In my mind, these two approaches actually overlay ... indeed the old cycle may be transitioning, but some of Elliot's analysis is dependent on his belief that the markets will get past the tariff trauma and drama and settle back down on the basic strength of the economy, along with the Federal Reserve eventually lowering interest rates. If that does not happen, and a serious recession settles in, that may create a situation in which the old cycle math appears to work out perfectly, with all markets way down in 2026 because of correlation.
But no matter what other markets are doing, the amazing thing to me was to realize that Bitcoin may be showing a pattern that shows the way to a more robust crypto market into the future ... no more boom and bust because of the strength of Bitcoin adoption picking up across all spheres of investment and everyday use around the world. Now, these does mean that the days of ridiculously big returns may be over (the NEXT video I watched showed that this for altcoins actually barely started, but I'll get to that tomorrow), but all markets that last mature, and mature markets reward those who faithfully learn and grow and work in them.
The maturity of the crypto market led by Bitcoin is also much bigger in importance than today's trades ... we are speaking of having money not dependent and controlled by banks and corporations, and in which finance we can transparently participate and bless each other. Bitcoin is the leader, and if it is showing us a new pattern in how it is going to be leading the market, it is important that we pay attention!