Asteroids with 100% impact probability.

We have new data on asteroid 2024 YR4 and unfortunately, for now I am going to baptize it as the Grinch asteroid because it can ruin Christmas in 2032, since the forecast is that it could impact at the moment is small, the probability of impact would be for December 22, 2032 but that small probability has increased now it is at 3.1, in fact it has surpassed what it would be a larger asteroid with 450 meters at most, while 2024 YR4 is between 40 to 90 m, we do not know exactly the dimensions, it is something that we plan to find out thanks to the James web telescope starting in March.

In the case of Apophis, we now know that it does not pose any risk to us at least in the next 100 years. On April 13, Friday, 2029, Apophis will pass about 32,000 km from the Earth. It will be visible to the naked eye from some parts of the planet. This passage so close will cause earthquakes in Apophis. On the surface of Apophis, Apophis is a very small asteroid even though some media talk about it. like a planet killer.

Apophis is so small that gravity is insignificant and what unites the rocks and dust in Apophis are other types of forces, much weaker, that hold the surface together. We do not know if Apophis has a hard core, but at least the surface of dust and rocks is united by other types of forces, not only gravity, which is why when it passes so close to the Earth, Earth's gravity, there are researchers who suspect that it will cause earthquakes on the surface of Apophis, it may also cause some change. In the trajectory, it is something worrying, which is why it is so difficult to know what will happen to this asteroid in the next century. We know that there is no problem for the next 100 years, but beyond that things can get complicated.

That is why NASA and the European space agency are going to send missions to study Apophis when it passes near the Earth, but neither this new one nor Apophis are the asteroids that have had the highest probability of impact, although it may sound a bit obvious, those that have had the highest percentages are the 100% that have impacted the earth, and I am not referring to those from the remote past but to those in which astronomers have detected the asteroid and have managed to predict in advance the time and place of impact, Therefore, at that moment when they detected it and saw that it was going to impact, its probability of impact was 100%.

The first was 2008 TC3 that impacted an area in northern Sudan in 2008. It had been discovered a few days earlier on October 7, 2008. The energy emitted by that small asteroid that was no more than 4 meters was 1.5 kilotons, that is about 10 times less than the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Even so, it caused a small shower of fragments, luckily in a desert area of ​​Sudan, and quite a few were collected. fragments and, in fact, the analysis of those fragments resulted in something quite curious.

The researchers have come to the conclusion that this asteroid, it was part, it was a fragment of a planet, at least a Ceres-type dwarf planet of around 1000 km approximately, which would be similar to the moon Europa, it must have at least an icy surface and an ocean of liquid water underneath, because they have found organic compounds that are only possible in environments with liquid water, that is, it belonged to the softest version.

In the softest version it had to belong to a dwarf planet or a moon with those characteristics of the moon Europa, that is, an icy cover and liquid water inside, that would be the soft version, the strong version would be that it belonged to a planet that was really already of considerable size, like Mars and that it did have liquid water on its surface, in both cases that small world or medium world was destroyed billions of years ago and that fragment ended up reaching Earth in 2008.

During the first hundreds of millions of years of the solar system there were many more planets and protoplanets and many more moons that ended up colliding with others, destroying others and others impacting with the planets. It was a time of Chaos and creation in the solar system. At that time, it was a small world but it had liquid water either under an icy crust or on the surface, the majority version is that it would be Europa-type.

Asteroids that hit the earth have already been detected and it was possible to warn them, there have been seven since 2008, of course they were all small and in the end it did not cause any problems except this one in Sudan, which if it had fallen in an inhabited area the debris would have caused some type of damage, that is, we are not talking about centuries ago but from 2008 until now.

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