I've had my eyes on bitcoin for a while. Sentiment is awful on crypto twitter. So many people burned out of pump.fun and sol. NFT twitter has been obliterated. Countries are now rug pulling memecoins. I think there will be a rotation back to utility tokens and all the "shitcoins from 2017."
First, Bitcoin looks like it's getting ready to end this consolidation we've been in since November. Since January it's been a bunch of lower lows, but now in the second half of February we're finally putting in higher lows. That's a trend change, and here's hoping we're finally getting out of this range. I'm bullish. Blackrock didn't buy at 100k to sell it back to you at 100k. So, I'm positioning for a rally.
Second, Check out this Eth Chart.
I follow a bunch of people on Twitter that like to talk about the smaller inverse head and shoulders pattern. That's a bullish pattern. I'm more impressed by the 4 years inverse head and shoulders pattern in green that I see going back to 2021. I think Eth is finally getting ready to rally. 4 year consolidations with one of the most bullish technical patterns out there is sexy to me.
Oh, also, big liquidations tend to mark changes. On the far right you can see a big wick on Ethereum. That candle had billions of dollars of liquidation and I heard rumors of a major tradfi company getting whalloped. So, when billions of dollars get wiped off the face of the chart that's one of the things I look for regarding trend changes.
Also, noting that the sitting US president is buying it in multimillion dollar chunks every so often seems promising to me too. I imagine there's some world liberty financial news in the not too distant future.
Third, check out Hive.
There was a very experienced trader named Tyler Jenks that Tone Vays used to have on his youtube channel a lot before he died. Tyler had two really interesting ideas to me. The first is called Hyperwave, which is a way to trade mega bubbles. The other is called Consensio. Consensio involves looking at moving averages. With 3 moving averages there's something like 20 or different variations of how the moving averages can be moving in relation to each other, but the 2 main ones to look for are when the short time is above and rising above the midterm which is above and rising above the long term, and the long term is looking up. That's the most bullish posture possible. The second is the opposite when they're all point down. Consensio is really just a moving average way of tracking when the trend is your friend and you're riding the trend.
Well, since late December of 2024 Hive has been in the most bullish posture of Consensio. Sure, it still goes up and down, but for now the trend is our friend and we're seeing some steady trending up even as BTC has been ranging down.
That's pretty good. So, I'm anticipating steady token appreciation even if it feels like a grind.
I think that positions the rest of the Hive ecosystem pretty well. I've been surprised by how long this altcoin bear market has lasted. Some are saying it's never coming back. It looks pretty good to me for BTC, ETH, and Hive, so I'm hoping the rest of our ecosystem does well in the short run too.
Anyway, none of my ramblings are meant as actionable financial advice. I'm just documenting my journey so I can either laugh at myself or celebrate some bad ass calls.