Now let's analyze Hive (formerly Steem for you OGs out there) on its investment thesis.
This one took me a while, because Hive is a very intricate, full ecosystem with lots of moving parts. Thanks to @alex-rourke and @starkerz for helping me fully understand the system. Read this article on Hive's tokenomics to understand how it works:
Read this article for a little more info on how Hive's tokenomics work:
@alex-rourke/hive-understanding-the-currency-and-reward-system-312
Please read the below article if you haven't already! Just so you understand what I'm talking about here.
@thedessertlinux/stop-hoarding-gas-tokens-crypto-investing-for-the-modern-age-8ga
🪙GAS TOKEN: Hive Power
The gas token of the Hive ecosystem is Hive, or staked Hive. Unlike traditional gas tokens, however, you don't actually spend it to do things. Its capacity, which allows you a certain number of actions per day. Essentially a refundable deposit.
Instead of paying fees with capital, you're paying with capital opportunity cost.
You should buy and power up Hive as a gas token if you want to post content or upvote content for visibility or curation rewards.
🪙INVESTMENT TOKEN: Hive Power/Staked HBD
If you want to invest in the Hive ecosystem, i.e. earn from the network growing in users and usage, you'll either power up Hive to earn staking rewards, or stake Hive Dollars (HBD) in Savings.
Note: because Hive is a no-fee ecosystem, more users/usage does not directly contribute to this! It does, however, indirectly contribute if new users mean more people buying Hive. More on that later.
🪙PRODUCT TOKEN: HBD/content
The product token for Hive is either HBD for payments, or the capacity to post content and data to the Hive blockchain. You should acquire liquid (not staked) HBD if you want to use it as money, and post or consume content if you want to, quite simply.
Hive's investment thesis:
Hive is a content and data platform with built-in incentivization models for creating content, curating content, staking power, etc. etc.
In short, you would invest in the Hive ecosystem if you believe people will use it to create content, send money, and so on.
More precisely though: you should invest in the Hive ecosystem if you believe people will use it, and that will lead to people buying more Hive.
The "zero-sum problem"
Because it's a zero-fee ecosystem, Hive pays people exclusively from inflation (new coins created). This means that, all other things being equal, people are paid by non-staked Hive holders (or even staked Hive holders, if their rewards are less than the inflation rate).
Essentially, this means that everyone in the Hive ecosystem is competing over a piece of the same zero-sum pie. Creators in particular can get a piece of this while owning little to no Hive.
I heard a term I've not heard in crypto before: "extractive user." In fee-based cryptos, every user is a benefit, unless fees are artificially low. But Hive has to be wary of which users it attracts, since some will take from the ecosystem and not give back, due to its design.
I believe this design incentivizes competing for status within the ecosystem over growing it, particularly with the ability to downvote content.
Mitigating the zero-sum problem
The way around the zero-sum incentive problem is very simple, but tricky to get right: onboard users and businesses that use Hive but which get paid from OUTSIDE Hive.
If new users see Hive as a data storage blockchain primarily, they will buy Hive and drive up the price, benefiting everyone and offsetting the extra cost to node operators for storing their content. They should participate in earning from creator/curator rewards only as an added, but not primary, benefit.
In my opinion, the Hive ecosystem should prioritize projects which buy Hive as part of onboarding users, but which find external ways of profiting, both for themselves and their users.