Philippine Stock Market
The PSE Index is still trading within a tight range as the impact of Trump's reciprocal tariffs on the Philippine economy is still uncertain. While it sits along the 200 EMA line, chances are still 50/50 whether it will start going up or down. Still depends on upcoming events in the market. Maybe the August rebalancing of PSEi would trigger something?
Philippines- US Tariff Deal
The initial reciprocal tariffs imposed to the Philippines was 17% as announced last April. It was paused for a few months for further negotiations and was set to be brought back this July. The Philippine President recently just visited US President Trump at the Oval Office where they eventually announced the final agreements of the Tariffs.
Philippines ended up having a higher Tariff starting at 20% and eventually lowered a bit to 19%. This is still about 2x more than the current tariffs. Meanwhile, there will be an Open Market for US products for which zero Tariffs shall be imposed on US imports. Trump's claim here is due to the US Trade deficit with the Philippines.
What Does This Mean?
For the Philippines, a higher Tariff (i.e. export tax) will impact export products. Although it's not necessarily paid by suppliers from the Philippines, it would make Philippine made products less competitive in terms of pricing. Since these reciprocal tariffs are imposed in most of the countries, then I guess the impact is less. It would be inflationary to the US though since their imports would mean higher prices to be paid by their consumers.
On the Import side of things, PH consumers would be happy since US imports shouldn't go higher due to the zero tariffs. However, note that this is only for commercial bulk imports. One's Amazon orders would still go through customs taxes (unless de minimis threshold; less than 10k). Also, the government may think of other ways to tax its consumers in a different way (i.e. VAT on digital service providers).
For the US, Trump has succeeded in pushing the envelope in increasing tariffs across the board. While the intent seems good in reducing the deficit and encouraging industries to be built back in the US, there are still some nuances to this dynamic. It's not like the US can suddenly produce all agricultural goods and raw materials it needs. Job outsourcing is also not covered here. So probably this is just a start, more to follow.
Trade / Military Deal
Though the trade deal appears to favor more on the US side, this latest bilateral discussion strengthened the alliance of the Philippines and the US when it comes to the geopolitical tensions in Asia, specifically with China. This 'corrects' the previous China pivot of former Philippine President Duterte. Although PH cannot fully trust and rely on US in case tensions arise, there is not much choice other than to rekindle its relationship with its strongest ally. It's as if ensuring to get US' support on the territorial disputes in Asia was the main agenda during the Oval visit.
Hive
Hive prices look good. i like that it's now sitting above the kumo. I'd be happy to accumulate Hive at this point, just waiting for local P2P sellers.
This is not financial advise. I use this as my trading journal/notes for ongoing reference for the succeeding week. The above technical analysis (charts) are just used for guidance while studying market behavior and trying my hand on market timing. Please Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
- Stock Charts from Investagrams