Popes and Horses

It's probably not kosher to compare popes with horses, and yet...the Kentucky Derby is tomorrow and the papal conclave begins Monday. The question in both cases is, "Who will win?" So, here we go...

Polymarket, or other such "prediction markets", are becoming go-to places for things such as this. At least to me, they're interesting because it's a bit more than an opinion poll. With these markets, people have to put up real money, or cryptocurrency, to make their predictions. They actually have to put their money where their mouth is.

Polymarket currently lists four cardinals as front runners for pope, as below:

And, thanks to Grok, here's a short run-down for leading candidates (ironically 3 are not on Polymarket at the moment):

And as to the Kentucky Derby, Polymarket has this prediction at the moment:

I know more about horse racing than papal politics. This is not bragging. I know very little about horse racing, which means I know zero about papal politics. But, one thing I believe with horse racing and especially with the Kentucky Derby is this...

...when the horses are making that final fourth turn, it's usually not the front runner you need to watch out for. All eyes are on that horse, of course, and the announcer is calling that horse's name, but that's not the place to focus. The dangerous horse is usually about two or three slots back, lurking and waiting for "the moment."

The Derby is the longest race these 3-year old horses have every run at 1 1/8 miles. That front horse often/usually fades, not always, but often. That horse sitting in the 3 or 4 spot is often a distancer, a stalker, and if a wise jockey is aboard, has been biding his time. That final 100 yards is go-time.

In the image above, I'd keep an eye on the blue/yellow jockey and horse...he's sitting in 4th place, directly positioned behind the front runner, hugging the rail, about to make a move and power ahead to win.

And back to papal politics, which again, I know nothing about...two things come to mind:

1. In political elections I'm typically a big believer in the pendulum swing of elections and movements. The pendulum swings conservative, then liberal, then back again. This is a religious election, so the pendulum effect may play less of a role here. It stands to figure that for centuries the pendulum should have been stuck on the "conservative" side of things. That's kind of how religion works...the Bible doesn't change. But, let's not fool ourselves, it is 2025 and people change their views on things...this election is political too. Both world politics and internal, unseen "Vatican politics" figure in. The pendulum may be at play is simply seen in Pope Francis himself. Pope John Paul was conservative, Francis swung the pendulum the other way, and if the pendulum is indeed swinging, then "conservative" cardinals stand to benefit in their chances of election.
2. However, if you want to win an election, you pick the voters. According to Grok, Pope Francis appointed 108 of the 135 voting cardinals. That leaves only 27 candidates from the conservative old-guard popes. Like gerrymandering a district, getting the right people to vote can yield a candidate-of-choice.

Voters, according to Grok:

Circling back to the front runners on Polymarket, I'd normally go with the horse, er cardinal, sitting in the three spot, Turkson on Polymarket. Or, I'd go with number 4 according to Grok, Peter Erdo, if I felt the pendulum effect is at play.

Yet, you win by votes and 108/135 are Francis-men. So, the top two, being continuity candidates have the best chances in my view. I still, can't go with the lead horse though. So, my prediction...

Luis Antonio Tagle will be the next pope.

And, the Kentucky Derby winner: Owen Almighty - This horse has good past performances with the exception of the last time out at the Bluegrass Stakes which is a mile and 1/8. This is concerning and might mean the horse can't handle the extra distance. No doubt this is what got the 30/1 odds. But, a jockey change was made. I like the new jockey Javier Castellano and maybe his experience can navigate the horse through.

We'll see how my predictions pan out.

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This article originated on Nostr

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