Hello folks,
My English is terrible, but my background is superior :)
I have been working on HK stock exchange, several OTCs and both Huobi and OKex in HK before, so I know about trading a bit.
I saw a lot of graphs, and my passion is low/medium volume pairs in crypto, especially I found it interesting to analyze utility tokens. Unlike stocks, utility tokens, if you understand the model of their use, can tell a lot about the company, product performance, community, sentiment and so on.
To be honest I was freaking existed and totally disappointed about IMT and MoneyToken project several times. I hated it and I loved it during my researches since I bought tokens. Finally I found my way of making profit on it.
I made a lot of profit trading IMT on IDEX, and even since I lost after the token sale (I bought with 30% bonus), I earned even more during my day trading, during past several month. I am mostly got back all my loss in ETH and aquired more IMT.
I'd like to share my thoughts and the strategy with you guys to make profit too, and since this way of thinking is not only about IMT, you can apply it to other coins too, but be careful while curious.
So let's read the graph:
At the start we can clearly see bounty and airdrop dump. I hate this with every cell of my body.
The company didn't supported the price which is good from legal side (buying tokens at exchanges to support the price from company wallets may be treated as insider deals, or market manipulations in HK, USA etc.) and bad from the marketing side (FUD, PANIC), the overall picture went badly.
We can clearly see that the volume in total, during first several weeks is suspiciously equal to 3% of total supply at all exchanges which is 2% bounty/airdrop + 2-3% panicked users. (Remember to count the persentage with lower token cost and lower marketcap accordingly) Some buyers and sellers were day traders like me. Remember to keep in mind, up to 30% trading volume may be coming from day traders.
During first 20 dyas the volume was 50-200K in average accross all exchanges. So that should be around 2M, and without daytraders and panickers there sould be 3-4% from the total supply, as I said.
Then we found the ground, and here where I came into the game. How did I knew? Well I was really counting the bounty. Easy peasy, I was checking Etherscan for small IMT transactions going to IDEX and basically small holders TXs.
As quantity of penny traders became small, I got in. My logic was simple: small holders and airdrop users are ok to sell at any price, because of panic or "free profit" big holders may withdraw their IMT from the platform, but have no reason to sell at the price cheaper then the token sale price.
During the ground play, you can clearly see the volume and price spikes for 20-40%.
Too small to be PUMP&DUMP, too big to avoid making money on it.
With those spikes I found that the number of holders of IMT started growing, and they started changing.
From 48K at the start to 60K where about 20K were new at that time. That should mean some day traders + some new platform users. I found that the number of holders grew after the membership sale, that granted 0% loans. However, most of tokens, that went to the burn (special burning smart contract wallet at etherscan) were tokens from existing holders.
Interesting thing about growing number of holders. It's not so positive as you may think.
More holders is good for long term and moon, but in short term, you should understand that they bought IMT for 0.001$, and 0.002$ price is already 100% profit for them. The only thing they need is volume. This is what we can clearly see: as volume and price rises, it immidiately dumps with a lot of small deals.
If the price rising without volume, it can grow slowly for 2-5% several days, but if it's going up quickly with buyers support, it dumps immidiately.
What are those price/volume spikes about?
Well they are sighs of the platform use.
Since IMT is 0.05 on the platform, buyers are buying it at any price to repay loans. It's still super profitable. I am 99% sure those spikes are coming from borrowers, because, as I told you: they are too little to be artificial pump and dumps and during some of them there even was no any kind of news. Moreover, we can even count what kind of loan they guy repaid.
You can easily turn to the 5-10min chart, see the volume of the first several candles and multily it to get the interest.
As I understood the model, you can buy 60% discount with IMT paying half of 60% discount value in IMT with the 0.05 price (no matter what price you bought it).
So for example if you have to pay 2K interest, you can get 1200$ discount paying 600$ in IMT.
So in total that would be like that 800$ + 600$ in IMT, which is not really 600$. Because at IDEX IMT is 0.001, 50 times lower price than on the platform!!!
So, again for 2K interest, I may pay 800$ + buy IMT for 12$ at IDEX and pay like it's 600$ on the platform.(600$/50 = 12$).
So if the volume of the spike is 2ETH bucs, that means a person bought IMT for 200$ to pay it as 10000K for the half of 60% discount. That means the total interest was around 30K.
30K with current platform rates means 500-600K loan for several month.
Here is the example of somebody quickly buying IMT (I assume) for repayment.
When moon?
I believe the moon would not be happening in 1-2month, regardless what Market condition we would see. The moon is not depends on new exchanges, and even Binance is not really giving the boost. (Hello GoChain)
The moon is depends on lenders totally.
I think that the number of IMT sold is totally enough for new borrowers to pay for the interest. Especially with 50x platform and exchanges price difference.
New lenders may wider the possible amount of borrowers and if the team will be able to secure another 10-20M to give more loans I believe we can get back to the ICO price, even if BTC will go to 5K.
Moreover we may (basically I am predicting it) see bigger spikes on the chart. Since lenders have to buy IMT and Hodl it in the reserve fund, they should buy 1-2M from the market in total (10%, according to the white paper).
Please remember, that 2M for current price means 10M with ICO price, which is more than 30% of all tokens sold. If you combine all the sell orders from all order books/pairs/exchanges you will not get this amount. You may get only 3-4%, not more.
More interesting things should be happening when lenders will start to compete to each other to get last tokens in the orderbook, and will get to some kind of FOMO to get their peace of the pie in the credit fund. They may be buying IMT at any price.
Remember IMT is not 0.05 for lenders, it's important. They would have to buy a lot!
When should it start? Well I hope really soon. My hope is about lenders, I left the test order to their contact form and they contacted me in one day, discussing lenders membership. They should be discussing it with potential lenders right now.
So my suggestion is to buy at 0.001 and not to buy at more than 0.002 before it gets stable there. However, I do not suggest you to sell it cheap.
When it would be mooning, unexpectedly, well look at etherscan for more insight and set you sell orders very high.
I am calling my strategy "fishing", as I am catching the hungry fish, who need to get IMT at any price. No matter if it's borrower or lender. It's really easy to buy IMT at the "ground", set the sell order at 20-40% up and wait for a "fish" to jump and take it!
I am sharing my thoughts, ideas, observations not investment advice.