塔勒布的文章《复杂性下的政治原则》，总共 11 条
塔勒布是谁？他自己这么说——
Nassim Nicholas Taleb：Flaneur(mostly), trader, and co-founder of the Real World Risk Insitute
Principle 1: Scalability, I
Between the concrete individual and the abstract collective there are a certain number of tangible fractal gradations
原则 1：延展性，I——在具体个体和抽象集合之间，存在一定数量的有形的不规则等级
An implication: politics is not scale-free. One can be "libertarian at the federal level, Republican at the state level, Democrat at the county level, socialist within the commune, and communist at the family level."
The notions of "nationalism" vs "globalism" is ill defined.
More technically, groups are never I (you) or infinity (mankind plus living things), but renormalize into clusters of intermediate sizes.
这意味着: 政治不是没有规模的。 一个人可以是"联邦一级的自由主义者，州一级的共和党人，县级的民主党，社区内的社会主义者，家庭层面的共产主义者。"
"民族主义"与"全球主义"的概念没有明确界定。
更准确地说，群体从来不是我（你）或无限的东西（人类 Plus 的生物），而是重新整合成中等大小的集群。
Principle 2: Scalability, Ⅱ
There exists a brand of peace only reached by noninterventionist localism
原则 2: 可伸缩性，Ⅱ——只有不干涉的地方主义，才能获得一系列的和平
Intuitively, people do better (to the least, act differently) as floormates than roommates. Any idiot realizes that in his or her own life but misses the point when it comes to political systems.
This is best illustrated by either Phoenician-style(non-Punic) decentralized localism or the fractalism of Switzerland.
从直觉上来说，人们比室友做得更好(至少，表现不同)。 任何白痴都会意识到这一点，在他或她自己的生活中，当谈到政治系统时，他们却忽略了这一点。
这一点最好地用腓尼基式的(非双语)分散地方主义或瑞士的分形主义。
Principle 3: Survival
Survival necessitates a minimum level of fractal tribalism
原则 3: 生存——生存需要一个最低水平的分散部落
Nobody has manged to prove that abstract(particularly Kantian) universalism can insure intergenerational survival.
The saying if you are friends with everyone, you are nobody's friend. And if you treat all mankind the same, in other words without some preferential treatment to your own children, you will turn out to be an unreliable parent - eventually threatening their own survival. Pure universalism at its ad absurdum limit implies you drop off a kid at school in the morning and randomly pick another in the afternoon.
The rules of societal symmetry cannot hold without some structure: you form a group with your own family; I form one with my own. This renormalizes to tribes that can be as self-defined as needed.
Yoram Hazony detected the necessity of tribal fractality (not his words): society can only work under such structures that have in-group vs. out-group behavior: "Me and my borther against my cousin; me, my brother and cousin against the outsider", etc.
没有人能够证明抽象（特别是康德安）的普遍性能够确保代际生存。
俗话说，如果你和每个人都是朋友，你就不是任何人的朋友。如果你对所有人类都一视同仁，换句话说，如果你不给自己的孩子一些优惠待遇，你就会变成一个不可靠的父母——最终会威胁到他们自身的生存。纯粹的普遍主义在其荒谬的极限里显示，你在上午把一个孩子送到学校，然后在下午随机挑选另一个孩子。
缺乏某种结构时，社会对称性规则不能保持：你和你自己的家庭组成一个团体; 我和我自己的家庭组成一个团体。 这种对部落的重新整合可以根据需要自我定义。
Yoram Hazony 发现了部落分裂的必要性(不是他的原话) : 社会只能在这样的结构下工作，这种结构具有群体行为和外群行为：“我和我的兄弟反对我的表兄弟；我、我的兄弟和表兄反对外来者”等等。
Principle 4: Greek vs Roman
The real difference in politics isn't the "right" vs "left" gradation but rather "Greek" vs "Roman". Greek: puts theory above practice. Roman: puts practice above theory.
原则 4: 希腊人对罗马人——政治的真正区别不在于"右"与"左"，而是"希腊"与"罗马"。 希腊: 把理论放在实践之上。罗马: 把实践放在理论之上。
Cleary this is not an ethnographic statement (in fact Byzantines were deliberately "Roman" in that, as well as many other, sense). It is inspired from the fact that the Romans got their political system by tinkering, not by "reason". Polybius in his Histories compares the Greek legislator Lycurgus who constructed his political system while "untaught by adversity", to the more experiential Romans who, a few centuries later, "have not reached it by any process of reasoning [emphasis mine], but by the discipline of many struggles and troubles, and always choosing the best by the light of the experience gained in disaster".
Other inspirations: the episode when Cato the elder sent Greek philosophers packing; Plato's disastrous chance at governing in Sicily; the Republic, perhaps what Popper deemed the most destructive book ever owing to Plato's intellectual brilliance.
Note that Anglo-Saxon common law would be the best idea of a self-correcting model.
很清楚，这不是一种民族的陈述(事实上，在某种程度上，拜占庭人也是"罗马"，以及许多其他的人也是)。这条观点来自于这样一个事实: 罗马人通过修修补补得到他们的政治制度，而不是"理性"。Polybins（古代希腊历史学家）在他的历史中将希腊立法者莱科格斯(Lycurgus)——没有经历过逆境，比作经验丰富的罗马人，在几个世纪后，他们“没有通过任何推理过程(强调自我) ，而是通过许多斗争和困难的训练，并且总是根据灾难中获得的经验选择最好的人。”
其他启示: 老加图送给希腊哲学家们包裹的那一幕; 柏拉图在西西里统治的灾难性机遇；共和国，也许是波普尔认为由于柏拉图的智慧才华而出现的最具破坏性的书。
注意盎格鲁-撒克逊普通法可能是自我纠正的最佳想法。
Principle 5: Asymmetries
A weak form of homophily (preference for similar people) is not xenophobia (distaste of the foreigner).
原则 5: 不对称性——同性恋的弱势形式(偏爱相似的人)不是仇外心理(厌恶外国人)。
A study of adaptive systems shows that a collection of people with a very weak preference of not being in the very small minority produces clustering and what may seem segreation may be just negative preference (the desire to not be alone). See Thomas Schelling's proof by cellular automata.
对适应性系统的研究表明，在极少数群体中，一群有着非常微弱偏好人会产生聚集，而看似隔离的可能只是消极偏好(不想孤独)。 细胞自动机可以看到托马斯·克罗姆比·谢林的证明。
Principle 6: Minority and Majority Rules
Neither the minority nor the majority should be able to impose their preferences on others.
原则 6: 少数和多数规则——不论是少数派还是多数派，都不应该把自己的偏好强加于他人。
An expansion to the concept "leave me alone and, in return, I will leave you alone".
It is clearly unreasonable that communities that represent 0.1% of the population impose their preferences on others, particularly when there is a high cost to that. But it is necessary that these individuals be treated with the proper amount of fairness.
对于这个概念的扩充“让我一个人呆着，作为回报，我会让你一个人呆着”。
很显然，代表人口 0.1% 的社区将自己的偏好强加于他人，是不合理的，特别是在这种做法的代价很高的情况下。 而是，这些人必须得到适当的公平对待。
Principle 7: Rationally Progressive
Rationally progerssive means embracing progress by accepting a certain rate of change deemed optimal. Too high a rate of change cancels the gains from previous mutations; while too slow a change leads to misfitness.
原则 7: 理性进步——理性进步意味着通过接受一定的变化率来获得进步，这被认为是最理想的。 过高的变化率抵消了先前突变带来的好处; 而过于缓慢的变化会导致不适应。
Again "conservative" or "progressive" are meaningless in that sense.
In addition consider that too fast a rate of change leads, simply, to regression.
Recall the metaphor: driving at 600 mph is certainly never the fastest way to get somewhere.
在这个意义上，"保守"或"进步"都是没有意义的。
此外，考虑到过快的变化率导致回归。
回想一下这个隐喻：以每小时 600 英里的速度驾驶肯定不是最快的方法。
Principle 8: Skin in the Game
No decision should ever be taken by someone who doesn't exit the pool in case he or she is worng.
原则 8: 游戏中的皮肤——任何决定都不应该由一个没有离开泳池的人来做决定，以防他或她是错的。
This is a case of filtering, not just incentives and disincentives. See Skin in the Game.
Every company under the backstop of the taxpayer should be treated like a utility, with its executives compensated like other civil servants.
这是一个过滤案例，而不仅仅是激励和抑制。 详见《游戏中的皮肤》。
纳税人支持下的每家公司都应被视为公用事业公司，其管理人员与其他公务员一样得到补偿。
Principle 9: Judeo-Christian values
"Christian" or "Judeo-Christian" values are not about religion, but the reverse: a secular tinkering tradition that arose principally from the separation of church and state in the West.
原则 9: 犹太-基督教价值观——"基督教"或"犹太基督教"的价值观不是关于宗教的，而是反过来的: 一种主要源自西方教会与国家关系的世俗修补（不断迭进的）传统。
Never conflate religion and legal system (Sharia).
See Skin in the Game.
不要将宗教和法律制度混为一谈(伊斯兰教法)。
看《游戏里的皮肤》。
Principle 10: Ethics of Governance
Every dollar made by a former politician or civil servant thanks to the fame and connection imparted by the office belongs to the taxpayer.
原则 10: 治理的道德——一位前政治家或公务员所赚的每一美元，都归功于该办公室的名声和联系，应该属于纳税人。
Consider Tony Blair, the Clintons, Al Gore, and... the Obamas.
Politics is not a resume enhancement.
想想托尼·布莱尔，克林顿夫妇，阿尔·戈尔，还有奥巴马夫妇。
政治不是简历增强。
Principle 11: Duration of Institutions
No public institution or agency should be created without an expiration date.
原则 11: 机构的期限
任何公共机构或机构都不应在没有到期日期的情况下设立。
Once public institutions are started, it is impossible to remove them; they are therefore extracted from the bottom-up selection mechanism and evolutionary pressures.
If a public institution or agency is vital, then it will be renewed.
一旦建立了公共机构，就不可能取消它们；因此，它们是从自下而上的选择机制和进化压力中涌现出来的。
如果一个公共机构或机构是至关重要的，那么它将得到更新。
往期回顾：
Incerto Time
In politics we face the choice between warmongering, nation-stateloving, big-business agents on one hand; and risk-blind, top-down, epistemic arrogant big servants of large employers on the other. But we have a choice.
在政治里，我们要么选择酷爱战争和民族国家的大企业代表，要么选择盲目的、在认识论上骄横无知的大雇主服务者，但我们至少还有得选择。
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