Is QAnon real? That was one of the main topics of a rather interesting and lively debate I had with my friend last night.
First of all, for those of you who aren't yet aware what or who QAnon is, let me briefly explain.
QAnon A Very Real Movement
On 28th October 2017 on the internet message board 4Chan, a thread called Calm Before The Storm was started by a user calling him or herself QAnon.
The user claimed that he (I believe the user identifies as male) was a government insider with top security clearance. He also claimed that he was aware of a struggle within Washington between the Trump administration and the deep state.
The inference was that Trump is personally going around smashing nefarious covert organisations. From secret banking cabals, to celebrity paedophile rings.
Since the original post last year, QAnon has garnered quite a following, enough probably to class it as a movement. In fact many Trump supporters recently have been seen holding up large 'Q' signs at presidential rallies and appearances.
So back to my lively debate. As I mentioned above one of the main topics was; is QAnon real? Secondly we wanted to analyse Q's predictions in order to check their veracity.
Prediction Definition
Before we go on, I want to lay out the ground rules for what exactly a prediction is. The reason being that if you are going to reasonably judge whether QAnon's predictions have been coming true. It is prudent to be working from a template that anyone you might debate with is also working from.
So the definition that I am working from - and I hope you agree - is thus:
A prediction is a definitive and unambiguous statement that is made about a future event. Which at the time the statement is made, can clearly be defined by others as a prediction.
So for instance, if I say to you that Arsenal are going to win the English Premier football League on April the 21st 2019. Then that fits the criteria laid out above.
It is a definitive unambiguous statement, which you can clearly define as a prediction.
You may say; Cryptogee has made a prediction that Arsenal will win the league on a particular date. Later when we look back on that prediction, there will be no ambiguity, I will either be right, or wrong.
What a prediction is not . . .
If I say something like;
Red skies, hands raised, courage. Always done.
Then that is clearly not a prediction. It's an ambiguous, non-definitive, cryptic statement.
The difference between the two statements, is when we look back on April 21st, everyone will agree that the first was a prediction. Whereas most people would not say the same thing about the second.
OK great we both agree now what a prediction is and what it isn't. If not then it will make any rational discussion between us later, very difficult indeed.
My QAnon Prediction
As I said to my friend last night, I don't know whether he's real or not and I haven't read any of his stuff. All I know about QAnon is the little scraps of info my friend talks about now and again.
So in my mind if he isn't real then I'd expect to see a pattern in his posts. Which would basically be a bunch of cryptic messages and statements. Which may get more specific as time goes on, in order to keep followers interested.
I likened this to the technique that fortune tellers and psychics use, whereby they put out a bunch of sweeping generalisations. Then wait for their clients to feed them back information that they can map situations onto. Rather like the second example of my non-prediction.
Cognition Manipulation
When somebody makes a generalised statement, and then later tries to turn it into a prediction. They are taken advantage of the cognitive bias called confirmation bias.
The thing is, if you actually break down what is happening, they are not the ones doing the manipulating. It is you that ends up subconsciously manipulating your own mind.
So if somebody says to you;
Red skies, hands raised, courage. Always done.
You can then later attribute that to Bayern Munich winning the German football league. You'll use the red to say that is the colour of Bayern.
You'll say that hands raised signifies winning. Courage is code for how they fought from 2-0 down in their last game to win the title. Always done will point to the fact that they have won the league more than any other German team.
You'll ignore the fact that it says red skies, and not red team. Also that always done is not the same as mostly done.
QAnon Prediction Analysis
So at my request, my friend gave an example of a QAnon prediction. He told me that due to treasonous actions by ex-Republican senator John McCain. QAnon had predicted the exact day and time of his death.
OK, this is interesting. First I asked to see the reports of McCain's death. After viewing a few sites I saw that he had died at 4:28 pm on the 25th of August 2018.
Then I asked him to show me the QAnon prediction. What he showed me was a QAnon post with a picture of Senator McCain standing at a podium - presumably at some public speaking event - with his hands in the air and eyes closed.
The date of the post was 25th July, 18:28:35 EST (Eastern Standard Time). The caption to the post was: No name returning to headlines
(No name is what QAnon calls John McCain).
OK I said, this clearly is not a prediction of the date and time of his death. Because it doesn't fall into the earlier definition of what a prediction is.
At best it predicts an 81 year old man who had had a long battle with cancer was at some point in the future going to be returning to the headlines.
Given his age and political fame, you or I could have made the same prediction.
Time For A Lens
However when John McCain did die on the 25th of August at 16:28 pm local time, which was 18:28 EST. Q posted a cryptic message. His followers say that he is telling them that McCain's death was suicide. However he posts it as a question, probably to avoid being sued for libel by McCain's family if he's ever found. The post also alludes to his first post, being more than coincidental, implying that it was a prediction (after the event).
Suicide weekend?
Hands up?
[30]
[0:28]
Impossible?
Coincidence?
We are in control.
BIG week ahead.
Q
Funnily enough Q doesn't realise that EST is two hours ahead of local time in the place of McCain's death. So the [0:28] seems to just reference the fact that it was twenty eight minutes past the hour. Rather than the much more boast-worthy fact that it was the exact time. Perhaps this signifies that Q isn't even American let alone a government insider.
So just going by the facts of what happened here are a list of events.
QAnon posts picture of John McCain saying he will be in headlines again soon.
McCain is 81 year old man who has had several bouts of skin cancer and was fighting a particularly aggressive type of brain tumour known as glioblastoma.. It is common knowledge that he is at death's door.
25th August John McCain dies at the exact time Q made the 'No Name' post a month before on the 25th of July.
QAnon then posts a cryptic message which appears to claim some kind of connection between his original No Name post and the ex-senator's death.
Conclusion:
The date and time of post and subsequent date and time of McCain's death is merely coincidence. QAnon has made several cryptic posts about McCain, many of which can be interpreted as predictions about his arrest or death. They didn't match up, this one happened to.
At the time of the No Name post, it could not be clearly defined as anything, but a prediction of the Senator to be in the headlines.
McCain had been in the headlines on and off since announcing his glioblastoma diagnosis in June of last year. In a 2017 Newsweek article, it was reported that the chances of him living past two years was around 30 percent. The article then went on to quote McCain, saying;
“Some say 3 percent, some say 14 percent. You know, it's—it's a very poor prognosis,” the 81-year-old said during a 60 Minutes interview in September.
Therefore McCain was already in various headlines and had been long before the No Name post. So rather than it being a prediction, it was an observation.
Of course you could say that no, it was a coded message and that it was too great a coincidence..
However this argument falls down when you shine a light on all the other No Name posts he made. Plus the fact that he himself did not reference the exact time in his subsequent post, merely the minutes past. Also not forgetting the very important fact that nobody at the time could have defined his original post as a prediction.
Who Is Q?
My guess is QAnon is somebody who is into the whole deep state conspiracy, has studied it at length and feels that he has a deeper insight than most.
He is somebody who has frequented various chatrooms that agree with his point of view. However he hasn't managed to gain a following, therefore has created the QAnon persona in order to garner attention.
I believe that he genuinely believes most of the stuff that he puts out.
Furthermore if he really was a government insider with high security clearance, and - as his supporters claim - have Trump's approval to blab about insider secrets on the internet. Then I would hazard a guess that such an act would come under the umbrella of treason. Something that Trump or the rest of his security detail, would never sanction.
And On And On And QAnon
The fact is whatever I, or anybody else who doubts the validity of QAnon's claims says. He will always have his believers, and I'm sure the movement will survive many more years yet.
I have had a bet with my friend, that another QAnon 'prediction' will not in fact come true. Hilary Clinton will not go to the Guantanamo Bay facility, and will not be arrested on child molestation charges.
He said that will happen by the end of the year, I have been generous and said that I'll give it to the end of Trump's presidency. Which I predict will be in about 6 years time at the end of his second and final term.
If that is the case, then my friend has agreed to admit that he was wrong about QAnon.
If however she is arrested and sent to Guantanamo bay, or slits her wrists to prevent such a thing. Then I'll concede - once I've seen the actual prediction - that there was indeed something to that QAnon chap after all . . .
Sources:
John McCain Interview - Newsweek
Senator John McCain, an American Original, Dies at Age 81 - Time
What is QAnon? Explaining the bizarre rightwing conspiracy theory
Further reading:
Understanding Cognition: Life Through A Lens Of Confirmation Bias - Cryptogee
WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE? HAVE YOU HEARD OF QANON BEFORE? DO YOU THINK SUCH A PERSON COULD REALLY EXIST? IF SO WHAT PURPOSE WOULD SENDING CODED MESSAGES TO PEOPLE BEFORE THE EVENTS SERVE? OR PERHAPS YOU DID BELIEVE AND YOU'RE BEGINNING TO SUSPECT THAT YOU MAY HAVE FALLEN FOUL OF CONFIRMATION BIAS?
AS EVER, LET ME KNOW BELOW!
Title image: Tom Sodoge on Unsplash