I watched this interesting and fairly neutral analysis of Israel's missile defence vs Iran attack.
Comments
Here are my comments:
Interesting analysis, but conclusion that there were 50 impacts and thus missile shield only 72% effective is dubious.
- Not clear whether these Open Source satellite photos can be relied upon.
- Even if they can be they show many hits in open areas. Israel's missile defence doesn't shoot down missiles landing in open areas. So nowhere near 50 hits on areas that were actually protected. Maybe 5-10, which is consistent with 95% effectiveness.
- While sat photos may be heavily censored, human casualties are impossible to hide in Israel. So if no-one was killed then very unlikely that anything important was hit..
- Sat photos themselves show that even hits in occupied areas of bases did not hit actual structures (with one or two exceptions). Hardened shelters provide protection against everything but a very accurate large warhead direct hit.
Conclusion
Iran missile accuracy very poor. Israel missile defence ~95% effective. Iran already at limit of numbers it can launch at once (only increased from 130 to 181 from April to Oct attack). Oct attack is last time Iran will be able to launch even 180 as Israel about to devastate Iran's launch capabilities.
Prediction
My prediction. Within 1 week Iran's missile threat will be severely degraded, just like Hizbollah's.
The pattern
The pattern from Hamas is repeating itself.
Stage 1. Mass missile attacks to attempt to overwhelm Israeli defences, with very limited success.
Stage 2: Israeli response severely degrades human and infrastructure launch capabilities. Weaker shorter range attacks continue while longer range attacked limited to a few at a time annoyance attacks that Israeli defences easily deal with. I personally experienced this the last two mornings back in Tel Aviv.
Stage 3: Further attrition of enemy by Israel leads to progressive drop off in attacks and loss of long range capabilities.
Stage 4. Enemy missile threat almost eliminated.
Stage 5: Enemy destroyed.
Hamas is between stage 4 & 5.
Hizbollah at Stage 3
Iran about to experience Stage 2.
In military terms this is a complete strategic neutralisation of the Iranian way of war.