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You might be aware that Israel and the Islamic Regime of Iran are in a pretty serious war right now. If one is honest, the Islamic Regime of Iran has been at war with Israel (and America) since 1979 even if Israel and America didn't choose to be at war in reply all the time.
At the end of this post is a little bit about how this started. But I'm going straight into the topic I want to cover.
Nuclear weapons
.... Interruption .... as I'm writing this the alarm goes for a 10 minute warning and I have to close the steel shutter in my shelter and my family are joining me here. Back soon I hope. ...
OK, back again.
I want to talk about what we're really fighting for here in Israel and want you to look past the hysteria about nuclear weapons. I'm not saying it's hysterical to fear nuclear weapons in the hands of an absolutely fervently anti-kuffar Islamic regime like the one in charge of Iran right now. This is obviously a huge danger for three reasons:
- They might use them on us in Israel;
- They might give them to terrorists who'll use them;
- We can't attack them if they hold these weapons.
But that's not the end of it
We can see the plan now: simultaneous land invasion by Hamas and Hezbollah, along with simultaneous massive missile and drone barrages from Gaza, Lebanon and Iran by complete surprise. This was Iran's ultimate plan to bring "death to Israel" as they've stated is their country's primary goal since 1979.
The Islamic Regime of Iran has spent trillions of dollars (probably more than we know) on this goal of destroying Israel (and if they did that they'd move straight on to their other goal of "death to America").
They have internally repressed and driven to poverty a once great nation in their pursuit of their apocalyptic Islamic Shia beliefs. More on that here if you're interested.
The Plan
October 7th was an abject failure by Israel's army and (most importantly) the Shabak (or Shin Bet) internal security agency. This agency is supposed to be responsible for "domestic" threats including Judea Samaria (the Arabs on the west bank of the Jordan river) and the Gaza strip which Israel took all Jews out of in 2005.
But what we found out was that Hezbollah had similar and much grander and larger invasion plans from the North. And they also had much greater and worse stockpiles of missiles and drones to shoot at the same time.
Defensive systems
It took Israel and the IDF hours to get its act together and stop October 7th and that wasn't before 1,200 had been murdered and 250+ taken hostage (and 53 are still being held, dead and alive).
Had that been simultaneous with the north and with more long distance missiles from Iran, the picture is very bleak.
We are dealing with the Iranian missiles again now. We had two single attacks from Iran last year and we got a picture of the scale. We are now being attacked by the Islamic Republic again but it's already a sub-strength attack against an Israel which is on the highest level of military and civil alert we've ever had.
It is very obvious that without Israel being on alert and ready, this plan of the Islamic Regime of Iran would have stood a damn good chance of succeeding.
And by success we really can believe that Hezbollah, Hamas and missiles would have slaughtered hundreds of thousands of us or even more. Without nuclear weapons.
Intelligence
Now I'm not saying this was close to succeeding to the same extent which Hamas's attack did for a number of reasons:
- The Mossad are responsible for watching Hezbollah and Iran;
- There would have been co-ordination between Hamas and the other two.
The Mossad are not Shabak. I won't discuss the internal Israeli politics of why Shabak failed (I believe of all the failures of Oct 7th, theirs was the most catastrophic though there was a lot of failing going on).
But The Mossad have proved beyond a shadow of a doubt, first with the extraordinary way in which they penetrated and took apart Hezbollah with the pager attacks, pin point destruction of huge missile stocks and decapitation strikes most notably against Hassan Nasrallah.
And last week when we woke up to news that The Mossad has been running drone factories in Iran and those were part of strikes with our astonishing air force to smash the military and weapons scientist leadership of Iran in the space of a couple of hours.
The Mossad has proved itself to be even more astonishing than we ever dreamed.
What you need to know is that The Mossad has never been tasked with doing anything much in Gaza.
8 days
All of this is why support for bombing Iran now is 97% with Jews in Israel. None of us have had a single night's true uninterrupted sleep for days and if you consider the Houthis I don't think we've had a week without an alarm for months. Members of my family have had their home wrecked in a missile strike which they survived in their protected space. We all support what our government and armed forces are doing.
This is also why the nuclear debate is largely academic. Are they building bombs, aren't they, why do they need enrichment equipment which has no possible use except weapons and why is it hidden in a mountain? It doesn't matter. It's something for talking heads to obsess over.
The rest of the war material Iran built from proxies to missile arsenals to terrorist sleeper cells all over the world, is more than enough to justify the attacks we're sending now.
Boots on the ground
But there won't be an invasion: Iran is nearly uniquely, geographically difficult to invade. So if the Islamic Regime is to fall, it will have to be the work of extraordinarily brave people on the ground there and many of them will be murdered by their regime.
It didn't start last week
Hamas's attack on October 7th 2023 was the Islamic Regime of Iran. Hezbollah's attack on October 8th was the Islamic Regime of Iran. The Houtis' missile fire and attacks on shipping are the Islamic Regime of Iran. Much of the Arab Palestinian terror of the last decades was the Islamic Regime of the Islamic Regime of Iran (or in the earliest stages the Soviets who also helped kick off the the Islamic Regime of Iran).
3am Alarm
So when we all our phones and the wailing sirens outside all lit up with an ungodly noise at 3am on 13th of June (Friday morning for us), something different was happening.
It is unusual for us to get a notification about "the preparations for a a significant threat". Normally we are told what the threat is: launches detected in Yemen or drones approaching. If they threat is immediate we get 90s warning to get in our protected space.
So this alert was not usual. We know now that President Trump gave Iran 60 days to negotiate the end of their nuclear weapons program. That 60 day period expired at midnight on the 12th of June and a 02:40 on the 13th of June (Israel Daylight Time) Israel struck Iran in a number of ways. They woke us to make sure if a huge barrage of missiles arrived, as many of us as possible would have time to get into sheltered places.
Since then we've absorbed dozens of direct hits but it does appear that our missile defense systems (Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow 2 and 3 and the American THAAD system) are managing to get 90% of the missiles. My brother in law and his family were bombed out of their home after an direct hit on their building.
We carry on with a few alarms per day and usually something in the middle of the night. But we know that our armed forces are smashing Iran's missile stocks and their launch equipment and that's what matters. The number of missiles fired in each volley is dropping all the time.
This was an inevitable fight. I'm glad this component of it started on our terms.
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