It's been fairly common knowledge since early February of 2019 that Jussie Smollett didn't want to notify the police and that it was an older friend of his who got the cops involved.
This should actually be a detail that we pay more attention to. If the cops remained uninvolved it's safe to say that Smollett's hoax would have worked precisely how he wanted it to.
Of course his story doesn't stand up to scrutiny; but, he knew that facts and logic are rare things among Hollywood leftists and the mainstream media. He managed to dupe a lot of powerful people - especially the people who could help his career.
This is the detail that shows that Smollett has the sense to know how the people who are useful to him would react. I also think that it shows that he's more of a lazy writer than he is a bad one. He knew that a gay black man reporting a hate crime by two Trump supporters would be too juicy a story for most celebrities and the media to question him. Anybody who would question him would (and did) be accused of racism, not believing victims, Trump supporters and so-on. He knew that the narrative is more important than the facts which is why he felt comfortable staging this hoax with such suspicious details.
He was proven right. Even after suspicions were mounting Kim Foxx almost got him off scott free while Smollett still had overwhelming support from the film industry and the media. Even after the conviction BLM chapters are maintaining support for him.
The one detail that made his plan not work was going to the cops. Yeah, there were a few celebrities like Dave Chappelle who called him out early while most didn't. It wouldn't bother him at all if conservative, libertarian, independent media or plebes like me don't buy it. Again, a lot of people who didn't buy it would keep their mouths shut out of fear of being slandered. Most people who matter to him wouldn't question him for a second if he said that he didn't want to go to the cops because he didn't trust them.
Alas the cops did get involved and Smollett needed to either commit a string of felonies or come clean. Strategically, I think Smollett took the only option he could. Even if he does serve three years in prison, which is unlikely, he'll still have plenty of supporters who are still either convinced that he's a prisoner of an unjust, racist nation; or, people who will find it easier to double-down than to admit to having been fooled.