I think we reached preponderance of the evidence, at least for what the committee bothered to admit. I say this because Ford’s testimony was credible and Kavanaugh’s was obviously and frequently preposterous. He was simply a much less credible witness.
I don’t think Kavanaugh fooled anyone about his general conduct as a teenager, and he would have done much better to own up to it and say he’d become a better person in the meantime. This is an honourable course of action that has been repeatedly followed successfully by people of both parties in the past. A good society makes room for mercy and for personal improvement.
The fact that he didn’t do this, or that he couldn’t, makes him much less sympathetic to me. I mean... come on. Of course he drank excessively. Of course he was sexually demeaning to Renate. I wasn’t born yesterday, and neither were you. I have trouble even imagining the person naive enough to believe him on these matters.
That said, I still think doubts are very reasonable about whether the specific assault occurred as it was described. I would not convict on a charge like that, and I would feel insulted as a juror if this were all I had to go on.
What's the new normal after this? It could actually be somewhat better in terms of how we experience it from the sidelines.
It seems to me that part of the reason there's so much contention now is simply because of the pretence that the Supreme Court is apolitical. It's not, and it never has been, apolitical. But we have cherished the illusion that it was, and we have gotten increasingly angry as the illusion has dissolved.
But when that illusion is gone for good, confirmation hearings may become a formality. Vacancies will be filled only when the President and the Senate are of the same party. And all votes will be foregone conclusions.
Is this better or worse than how things were before? I don't know, but it's almost certainly a lot less contentious.