What if HIVE goes to 10 cents?

Let me start by saying this is not a doom and gloom post. I don't know if HIVE will drop that low, I hope it does not. But for LBI, I would like to have a plan incase it does, because that kind of drop would present an incredible opportunity for us. This is just a speculative post, a thought exercise really. But it is also a planning post, where I'd love to get feedback from LBI holders on what moves we should make if this sort of HIVE price action comes to pass.

The thing is, we have a bit over 5000 HBD in savings. This represents basically a quarter of LBI's asset backing, at current prices. This gives us options, if the kind of HIVE price action mentioned above does come to pass.

We could...

Trade it to HIVE.
Trade it to LEO.
Trade it to HE income projects.
Some combination of the above.
Not touch the principle, but swap the interest for HIVE.
Do nothing different.

Let's look at each option in more detail.

Trade it to HIVE.

If HIVE goes to 10c, then our 5,000 HBD could buy 50,000 HIVE. This would change the dynamics of LBI, and give us lots of options. One option I'd like would be to power up half and hold half liquid. The liquid part would be just held, waiting for a recovery for HIVE back to 20c. Trade it back to HBD, then we have our HBD restored to 5K, and the profit on the trade would be the 25K HP we added. The other option would be to power up the full 50K and delegate it to income producing projects, and to build up much faster some currently small positions - like PWR for example.

This sort of move, if it was timed correctly, could be transformative for LBI. As HIVE recovered from its dip down to 10c, which I think most of us here would assume to be highly likely, LBI's $$ value would grow significantly. It's a nice thought, but there are other options also.

Trade it to LEO

We are LBI - LEO Backed Investments. If HIVE dropped to 10c, and the LEO/HIVE ratio remained as it is now, we could buy around 300K LEO. That would put us up to 500K and position us as one of the biggest LEO wallets out there. But could we buy that much in one hit? The HIVE/LEO pool has around 700K LEO in it. Us trying to buy 300K would push the price significantly. We could do it slowly, but who knows how much slippage we would incur.

I know there is mixed opinions amongst LBI holders about LEO, but it is worth floating as an option to consider.

Hive Engine income options.

This is a tricky one. That sort of firepower to buy up HE tokens would be nice, but what would we put it into. We could add to the DAB and EDS wallets, we could put a bunch into the PWR wallet and slowly fee it into the pool. We could pick up more BXT, INCOME, BRO tokens, or add in SIM BBH or other income tokens. We could also go into SPS, DEC or look at other HIVE gaming projects. Some one needs to bring me up to speed on @darkcloaks - I'm seeing it around but don't know what it is about.

All this could happen, but the age old problem with HE tokens is liquidity. Most of these would be hard to buy in size, and exiting the position down the track if we needed to would be even harder.

Combo.

Trade half to LEO and half to HIVE? That would give us 25K HIVE, and 150K LEO. That is still pretty transformative for the fund, and puts us in great shape for the recovery. We could add significantly to our PWR delegation, and build that wallet up much faster. Also, we would be positioned well if LEO takes off.

Lots to like about this option, more HIVE, more LEO and big $$ value gains when HIVE recovers.

Use interest only.

One good option, nice and safe and conservative, would be to leave the HBD untouched in savings, and simply pull all the interest out to trade to HIVE. This is much less dramatic, but our HBD interest is currently around 60 per month. we could buy 20 HIVE per day, roughly, with this.

Nice and safe, but if HIVE drops to 10c, how long is it likely to stay there?

Do nothing.

Stick to the plan, ignore the price and don't make any risky moves. The safe option, for sure. While HIVE, and presumably LEO, were down in this hypothetical slump we would be earning more, LEO dividends would be up as the portion of HBD interest that gets swapped for income would buy a lot more LEO. But that is about it, no transformative growth, no market gains from a recovery. Just slow and steady.

Does slow and steady win the race?

So there you have it, a bunch of options to think about for LBI if HIVE continues to drop to $0.10.

Will it happen, I hope not. But I think we should have a plan just in case. This is one I'd love to throw over to LBI holders, for advice and input. I do have some personal thoughts, but would really like to hear what you all think. There could be other options I have not thought about, feel free to make your suggestions.