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It's kind of euphoria time I guess but the real max pain is still not happened, and that still is expected to happen in end of Q4 2022.
A lot of things are still not on track and there is no solution in sight either.
so for Q4 the expectation is
- Russian Politics doing naughty things, not giving needed energy to EU where they need it
- Credit cards unpaid percentage reaching even more heights than now (aprox 45% already unpaid)
- people's savings depleting
- mortgage unpaid
- more bankruptcies and companies being takeover by bigger sharks/whales in markets
- food shortage crisis intensified
- housing market crash
On geopolitical state I expect China/EU/USSA/Russia/AU etc etc behave in a manner where they only do some sort of threats and power show offs, but don't really go to the extent they harm the citizens. China seems to be already dominating without doing any sort of bloody war since their economic independence is far greater than any other country in the world, which means if china sanctions others, it will harm them, not the opposite 😅
In Q1 of 2023 I expect Fed and friends keep doing what they know best, inflate more money into the economies, like they did in 2000, 2008 etc etc. and markets starts to recovery path again, leading to bigger bubble than now, and prices inflating everywhere.
Watched a video from Milton Friedman, and understand a bit that politicians will give tax rebate/cuts to the citizens in new policies. But the result will be since with inflated prices they will have higher earnings, they will hit the higher earnings bracket ending up giving higher taxes anyway, with lower monetary value in hand even with higher income in hand the regular citizen still loses wealth power they had before inflation.
It's been repeating again and again and if that's how things will happen as Milton said, probably the same will happen again.