The Superumans #81 - Predict Brought The Prediction Markets On Blas...

Any user with a web3 wallet can bet on events and receive fair rewards if the bet is correct, but how did blockchain enhanced the user's experience? UMA's Optimistic Oracle played a major part in the prediction markets success story!

The UMA ecosystem is growing fast. The Optimistic Oracle, Oval, and oSnap serve a wide array of blue chip protocols. The most interesting segment of the ecosystem? I will say prediction markets without thinking twice about it!

Prediction markets have been a major focus in the crypto space ever since they were first mentioned in the Ethereum whitepaper. These markets enable users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events, like elections or sports results, in a decentralized and trustless manner.

Online bookies are bullies, charging high fees and even blocking successful players from betting. Online betting companies will enforce low maximum limits to customers and play any card in their sleeves to make profit. Everything changed with on-chain prediction markets!

Predic brought prediction markets on Blast. The Web3 platform helps users bet on current events in sports, politics and more. The OO uses game theoretical principles to find a Schelling Point for any outcome, which makes it a powerful tool for resolving Predict disputes.

Sometimes, disputes arise when there is disagreement over the outcome of a particular event. In blockchains, most problems are resolved cryptographically. Prediction markets however require blockchains to verify natural language statements, which can be subjective and open to interpretation.

Prediction markets are fun, but disputes aren’t. It’s a zero-sum game and intersubjectivity is inevitable, especially when the stakes are high. So, what is the best way to resolve prediction market disputes? The answer is ... a decentralized and transparent manner! This ensures that no single-entity has control over the resolution and establishes a trustless foundation to operate upon.

UMA’s Optimistic Oracle has proven itself to be the best tool for the job. The Optimistic Oracle uses a unique Data Verification Mechanism (DVM) to verify real-world information on-chain. The DVM effectively employs a Schelling Point approach for dispute resolution.

I noticed that Predict was cool from the moment they went live on Blast! I had a look at the yield-bearing prediction market and explored the range of available forecasts, from the outcomes of the presidential elections to upcoming crypto prices. Yes, the predictions you make are yield-bearing!

This is something different! You pick the market, place your bets, then you’ll earn 6% native yield on the stables you hold on Predict, whether they’re deployed in open positions or chilling in your wallet! No-brainer! That's not all! The users provide liquidity and earn Blast Gold and points!

I started small, predicting the upcoming price of $ETH and $SOL! Won one and lost one, then put the full amount on Kamala Harris! The value of my positions earns yield, blast points and hopefully a chunk of Blast Gold! The odds for Trump v Harris were about 50% - 50% when I placed the prediction, and every event or debate will change the odds. Waiting for the elections result to claim my win!

Another interesting market that I found on Predict was "Will Polymarket launch a token in 2024?" and I wanted to have a go! The rumors started few weeks ago, and the current odds for "Yes" were at 385 on the day I made my prediction.

I decided to go against the odds, and bought a batch of "Yes" shares at 39.2 cents each. Spent 10 $USDB to buy 25 YES and if Polymarket will launch their token before 1st of January 2025 I will win $25.51 for guessing correctly. It's not wow but it's fun! Due to Predict unique feature, I will also earn yield on my bet! Let's drop this token for Christmas!

Had some spare $USDB and decided to play a gamble on who will win the 2025 Superbowl! Bought some Kaiser Chef shares just because there's always a chance for the holders to defend their trophy, and then dived into the odds of the underdogs!

Spend $2 on those teams with the lowest chances to get into the Superbowl final, hoping that at least few of them will improve during the season. I could wait for the final, or trade the shares if they will help me make a decent profit. Will Buccaneers bring me joy?

UMA believes in the power of decentralized, community-driven solutions. The Optimistic Oracle allows us to resolve disputes fairly, transparently, and in a decentralized manner. As prediction markets evolve and become more integral to the DeFi ecosystem, the ability to resolve disputes fairly and transparently will continue to be absolutely critical.

How to make money? Work hard! Don't forget that prediction markets can't replace a real job, and should be just a way to have some fun. Never invest more than you can afford to lose! Use you clairvoyant skills to make some beer money but never ape into markets like there's no tomorrow! Always DYOR and touch some grass!