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Global catastrophe was inevitable
An international team of scientists from Austria, France, Britain, Germany and Switzerland concluded that thawing permafrost and the associated carbon emissions reduced the emission budget of carbon dioxide to almost zero. As a result, the excess of permissible greenhouse gas emissions, which can lead to a climate catastrophe, is inevitable. Article scientists published in the journal Nature Geoscience.
The emission budget of carbon dioxide is the permissible amount of carbon dioxide that can be released over a certain period of time so as not to exceed the level of global warming set by the end of this period. According to the Paris Agreement of 2015, the growth of the global average temperature should be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius to prevent a catastrophic climate change scenario. According to previous estimates by researchers, in order to achieve this goal with a 50 percent probability, the budget should not exceed 550 gigatons CO2. If the current level of emissions is maintained, it will be exhausted in about six years.
Scientists have estimated the impact of carbon dioxide and methane emissions caused by the melting of permafrost on the emission budget. According to their conclusions, without taking into account the influence of the cryolithozone, the emission of 2320 gigatons of carbon dioxide will lead to an excess of the limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius, while the emission of 3230 gigatons will exceed the limit of 2 degrees Celsius. Taking into account the melting of permafrost, these figures are reduced by 30 and 60 gigatons, respectively. At the same time, the allowable emission budget is reduced even more - by 60 and 100 gigatons, respectively.
There are several scenarios for reaching the limit. Some of them allow a temporary excess of the set values with a subsequent decrease in the average temperature. According to the Paris Agreement, the increase in average temperature can reach 2.5 degrees Celsius, but then you need to take measures to reduce this value to 2 degrees Celsius. However, in this scenario, the melting of permafrost will reduce the emission budget by 16 percent. If the limit is exceeded by one degree, the emission budget will decrease by 25 percent. For a limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius, the emission budget is reduced by 10-100 percent.
Thus, exceeding the limits is the most risky strategy, and in a number of scenarios for humanity, the emission budget is almost completely exhausted. Currently, the scenario of exceeding the limit is being implemented, therefore, scientists conclude, humanity must be prepared for the fact that it will not be possible to return to a safe level of warming.
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