The Industries of the Future
By Alec Ross
Summary by Ant Hive Media
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Overview
The book aims to provide a perspective from the inside of rising digital industries. What was once regarded as science fiction, technologies such as robotics, digital currency (i.e. Bitcoin), genomics, Big Data processing, etc., are now a reality after the growth of the telecommunications and personal computer industry, in the late years of the twentieth century. Soon, emerging technologies like enhanced robotics and genomics will be a part of the American lifestyle. Their economic potential is so massive, that genomics is projected as a potential rival industry to the internet, economically speaking. Also, cybersecurity will have to evolve along with these industries.
Globalization and the uprising of economic powerhouses such as China and India caused recession in places like the American Rust Belt and Appalachia. Cheap labor on these economic poles led to massive loss of jobs in America. Now, emergent digital industries promise to change the planet's economic geography entirely, and we all should be ready for it. Basic programming skills and proficiency in several languages will be crucial in the future job market.
Important People
Alec Ross
Once Hillary Clinton's senior adviser for innovation, Alec Ross also worked as adviser to Barack Obama, then a Senator, during his presidential campaign in 2008. Ross also serves in Johns Hopkins University as Distinguished Visiting Fellow.
Hillary Clinton
The former U.S. first lady also worked as a senator for New York and as Secretary of State.
Lukas Wartman
A leukemia survivor, dedicates his work to cancer genomics (assistant director to the program) at Washington University in St. Louis. Wartman is known for using technology as means to comprehend DNA analytics.
Marc Andreessen
Marc works as a software engineer and venture capitalist, played a crucial part in developing Netscape and Mosaic. Andreessen was inducted into the World Wide Web Hall of Fame, along with only other five inductees.
Satoshi Nakamoto
The developer responsible for the technology that enabled Bitcoin's existence is also suspected of being a pseudonym. Many believe he may even be several people, as Nakamoto is yet to be identified.
Jack Dorsey
CEO and co-founder of Twitter, also serves as CEO for Square. Dorsey was appointed by the Wall Street Journal as Innovator of the Year in the technology industry.
Charlie Songhurst
An emerging technologies expert, he once managed Microsoft's corporate strategy. Songhurst is a co-founder of hedge fund Katana Capital, which focus on the emerging technologies industry.
Barack Obama
A former Illinois senator was elected the 44th U.S. president. He used Big Data processing extensively during his presidential campaign in 2008.
Toomas Hendrik Ilves
A former diplomat and now the 4th Estonian president, advocates for technology matters since elected in 2006.
Paul Kagame
The president of the Republic of Rwanda seeks to keep Rwanda among the cyber-innovative countries in Africa.
Summary of Core Concepts
The opportunities created in the last ten years by the Human Genome Project.
Ten years from now, robots should take a large role in world economies.
Virtual encrypted currencies like Bitcoin will grow to a large role in modern economy.
Big Data will benefit from digital technologies and be a great part of economy in the 21st century.
Cybersecurity may struggle to keep up-to-date with digital transactions and data.
Economic geography may chance as the world grows towards new digital developments.
Governments will struggle to regulate modern digital economy in the 21st century.
Societies will have to adapt so every demographic group is taught the necessary skills to thrive in the modern economy.
Analysis of Core Concepts
Core Concept 1
The opportunities created in the last ten years by the Human Genome Project.
Analysis
Scientific research was helped a great deal when the human genome was decoded in 2003. At its time, in 1984, the human genome mapping project was the biggest of its kind. Before completing ten years, the project employed over 310,000 people in the U.S.
By 2020, the genomics industry is anticipated to surpass the $22 billion mark. The Asian market should be the fastest growing one. Decoding the brain and its functions has proven to be genomics' next challenge.
Pharmaceutical drugs to specific DNA groups will be possible with modern genomic research. These designer drugs should start expensive, but other nice benefits should be accessible. From using your smartphone to get accurate diagnosis or the taboo subject of the "designer babies", modern genomics have plenty to work with.
Core Concept 2
Ten years from now, robots should take a large role in world economies.
Analysis
Robots have overgrown many technologies over the years. Robots are expected to take on a larger role within households in the near future. Robot designers face limitations with electricity consumption and size, but achieving not only high levels of artificial intelligence, but complex communication devices, which may overgrow artificial intelligence itself.
Western culture likes to fantasize with artificial intelligence systems gone wrong, with its sci-fi stories. But robots are relied upon more and more relied upon. Their potential to spare hours of human labor and save lives make for a very compelling argument.
Core Concept 3
Virtual encrypted currencies like Bitcoin will grow to a large role in modern economy.
###Analysis
Digital currency was once thought of an open stream to criminal activity, but now is globally available and accepted, even by national governments. Bitcoin is by far the most available and widespread digital currency. Still, since its creation in 2009, Bitcoin remains the doubt of whether it is the future of currency or just another company to be overshadowed with time. Bitcoin was trusted as a way to avoid the possible bank collapse in the 2012-2013 financial crisis in Cyprus.
Bitcoin's rise into people's trust is similar to what gold did when it basically backed the whole global financial system. At the time, currency backed by gold was treated as more trustworthy than fiat currency. Like Gold, Bitcoin became globally accepted and no government or central bank can control its global supply. Bitcoin is also mined, just like gold, but from computers. Its limited supply might attract investors who once put their money on gold.
Core Concept 4
Big Data will benefit from digital technologies and be a great part of economy in the 21st century.
Analysis
Big Data consists of images, text, location logs, along with
user frequency from all over the world. Google's CEO Eric
Schmidt spoke in 2010 about how the world generates
over five exabytes of data. That would compare, in data
terms, to all known human knowledge recorded from the
dawn of times to around 2003. That rate is bound only to
increase. About 90% of all Earth should have high-speed
internet connections via broadband by 2020, along with
smartphones being used by 70% of people by the same
time frame.
Big Data analytics should improve the reach companies
have on customers. Alluding to the oil industry, not only
those who drill oil profit from it, those who refine it so it
reach end users also profit massively. With Big Data, that
"secondary industry" is whoever harnesses this data only
for commercial use. But not everything regarding Big Data
will have commercial purposes, such as Google's efforts to
track and contain flu season via Google search. Though
not all Big Data efforts come true, the possibilities are
almost endless.
Core Concept 5
Cybersecurity may struggle to keep up-to-date with digital transactions and data.
Analysis
As more people are using the internet, cyber-attacks also
rise. The same technology that now allows people to hack
into driverless cars, might help ill-intentioned people to
gain control of drones, robots and many other crucial
computer servers, like those that control power grids. Gas
and oil infrastructures have already been targeted in
Iranian terror attacks. Iran is also suspected of trying to
seize control of a power grid in the U.S. in 2013.
Unlike old military threats, cyber technology presents a
different kind of danger. Ash Carter, United States
Secretary of Defense mentioned the possibility of creating
a branch in the armed forces with the sole purpose of
overseeing cybersecurity. Taxpayers would ultimately feel
it, if that came true, as it takes much longer to train
someone to operate a $500 than it takes to learn to operate
a million-dollar military aircraft.
Cyberwarfare also brings up many legal questions.
Toomas Ilves, the president of Estonia, has spoken about
cyberattacks falling into international law, equivalent to
armed aggression. Russia's massive cyberattack on Estonia
in 2007 would explain his worries. NATO has a policy of
countries defending an alliance member from any attack,
which could aggravate situations even more.
Core Concept 6
Economic geography may chance as the world grows towards new digital developments.
Analysis
Extractive industries fueled the economies of states like
West Virginia in the early 1900s. But since the late 1980s,
employment rates dropped due to countries with cheaper
labor costs. The race for the cheapest labor on Earth is
bound to change, as new industries storm the market.
Silicon Valley is a direct rival to foreign markets, as it is
the center of the global digital industry. 3D printing should
change the way products are mass produced worldwide, as
it would end massive assembly lines and require fewer
workers, bringing back some of the manufacturing jobs to
richer countries. That would allow technology to reach
areas away from the major technology poles.
But Silicon Valley's rise also shows that these new
technological hubs aren't planned and can happen
anywhere. Hope City in Ghana and the Skolkovo
Innovation Center in Russia both failed as planned
innovation centers. Instead, governments should focus on
supporting these centers as they arise.
Core Concept 7
Governments will struggle to regulate modern digital economy in the 21st century
Analysis
Robotics and genomics face many major regulatory questions. Modern technologies tend to remove power centralization, so they can't be treated as new advances were treated in the past. But that doesn't mean liberal democracy will emerge from new technologies, though Ukraine and the Arab Spring can be used as examples of governments toppled by technology.
Regulation is necessary, as power become diffuse. Businesses, academics and citizens should be relevant stakeholders, to help the government decide the best practices and policies for these new industries.
Core Concept 8
Societies will have to adapt so every demographic group is taught the necessary skills to thrive in the modern economy.
Analysis
Education will play an even larger role in modern economy, as knowledge and skills like computer programming and foreign languages will be exceptionally sought after. Those hoping to tackle global economy will have to be proficient in languages spoken from emerging markets like the Middle East, China and Russia. As easy as programming has become, knowing programming languages will be desired even for extinct languages. Those able to code, speak and translate in many languages will be the ones the market looks for in the future.
This new economy will also bring accessibility to the table. With time, countries with low rates of working women will have greater female workforce involvement. In the U.S., driverless cars should give blind and disabled people the ability to take part in modern economy as never before.
Author’s Style
Ross takes a rather academic look into today's critical technological issues. He makes the book as readable as a notebook or a collection of lectures on the subjects.
Ross doesn't spend time working the political views of Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, despite having worked closely with both. Instead, he makes it very personal, drawing from his own life experiences from his early years in West Virginia and Baltimore.
Ross shows great eloquence and knowledge about the most different subjects, using clear examples to make the point of his arguments. However, that eventually leads to some generalization regarding "Asia" and "Africa” and that can leave the reader asking questions. Even so, Ross is able to make readable the most technical subjects.
Author’s Perspective
Alec Ross worked as an advisor to Hillary Clinton when she served as United States Secretary of State. He was able to visit 41 countries and observe closely these emerging technologies. His experience allows him to add an international view to technological changes. Ross often addresses technology almost philosophically, looking to avoid any bias. He offers an optimistic tone to technology, while admitting that it may be economically and politically disruptive at first. His optimistic tone only fades away when talking about cyberattacks, which can really harm economies and people, and it clearly is Ross' greatest concern.
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