This post is about how AI, AR, and other forms of augmentation will be as much of a shock to the system as the transition to the automobile and flight were at the dawn of the 20th century.
I wrote this over the last few days while doing research prompted by reading articles about how AI will impact our future, and the response of the wealthy in doing everything they can to avoid their impending demise.
If you happened to have been born in 1880, you would have been just old enough on a momentous day in 1893 to witness the unveiling of the first American-made gasoline-powered car; The Duryea Motor Wagon.
For thousands of years, mankind had had to make do with the horse and other pack animals in order to get around, and now, courtesy of brothers Frank and Charles Duryea, things would never be the same.
Today, we're seeing the start of yet another new sea-change that will be even more of a shock the system than anything that the Duryea brothers could have imagined: how AI and augmentation will completely change our world.
Modern-Day Buggy-Whip Makers
Westfield Massachusetts, was the center of the buggy whip industry in America, and was known as "Whip City" during the 19th century prior to the arrival of Ford's Model T car. Today, the last of the 42 whip manufactures: Westfield Whip, is all that remains from the pre-automobile age.
I wonder how they felt watching this new interloper destroy their businesses? The wise firms had the sense to adapt to the new realities, while the Luddites perished. I saw something similar during my time as a Directory Assistance Operator.
There I witnessed the first trials of an automated voice prompt intended to replace us. The early models wee kludgy and irritated callers who insisted on bypassing "the robot" in order to reach a real person.
However, just a few years later, I was one of the first reps to test a prototype system that sounded just like a real person. If it weren't for an artificial pause and an audible "click" at the end, the average caller would never had known.
In short, we were fucked.
I implored the less-than-tech-savvy management that we needed where people were then beginning to search for phone numbers: on the web. But they wouldn't listen, instead responding that there would always be a need for us. However all these years later, how often do you call directory assistance in order to find a phone number?
That's what I thought...
A couple of years after those conversations, they offered to buy out our contracts, and I wisely took the offer seeing the handwriting on the wall...
Yes, Virginia, You Can Be Replaced By AI
I'm seeing some of the same disruption that used to be "on the horizon" taking place right now, only this time, there's no one offering us a buyout.
With promise, will come pain.
I see societal disruption arriving along with technological advances. Chat GPT, AR, VR, robotics and massive lines of automation will result in job losses on a scale unimaginable in prior ages. The sting of change will be tempered somewhat by the conveniences offered by these new innovations. However, those that fail to see (and act) in the face of these looming new challenges, will be steamrolled and left behind.
But I don't see advances in technology affecting only employment, but worming itself into all arenas of life. I see us separating into two camps: The Naturals and The Augmented.
Imagine your favorite Hiveian, and having an AI version of him creating content just for you. A roll-your-own Meesterboom, a TaskBot, or a ANomadSoul to call your own. In ten years, Hive may look very different than it does today.
How many of us (like me), will still be hand-creating each post instead of resorting to automated Chat-GPT generated content? Will Hive consist of an ocean of AI-controlled and machined articles, versus tiny islands of original content creators casting about for an diminishing share of a rapidly depleting reward pool?
The Naturals vs The Augmented indeed. Time will tell...
Let's Get Physical
When it comes to physical augmentation, those of us who remain natural will be at a distinct disadvantage compaired to those able to afford the many add-ons and upgrades designed to extend your life and boost productivity.
Think of Neo in the first Matrix movie (my favorite movie BTW). Who's competing with that? If your co-worker gets implants in his arms which allow him to process items on an assembly line 10X faster than you, how much longer will you have a job unless you decide to upgrade right along with him?
It'll be like doping in the Tour de France. Everyone that can, will be doing it, and you'll have almost no chance to win unless you're doing the same.
Or imagine you're a billionaire, you've been very successful and are enjoying life to the fullest. A huge mansion, trophy wife, expensive cars, and pricless art. You're on a merry-go-round and you don't want it to end, right?
But then you run into this thing called: mortality. Unless we're instantly "snatched away" in The Rapture (as mentioned in The Bible in the book of 1 Thessalonians 4:16-18), we're all slated one day to die.
This is one of the reasons we're seeing the wealthy funding research into life extension and even immortality. Billionaire investor Peter Thiel has no intention of going quietly into that long sleep, and is putting his money where his mortality is, and even plans to have his body frozen after his death.
Cyronics is just one of the ways those flush with cash plan to deal with their impending demise. Jeff Bezos has Altos Labs, whose mision is:
to restore cell health and resilience through cellular rejuvenation programming to reverse disease, injury, and the disabilities that can occur throughout life.
Are you getting the picture? Success in these fields will change society forever, but will it all be for the better? That's the question we're all about to find out.
When AI Gets It Wrong
And then we have those instances where AI gets it wrong. There, we begin with the strange case of Dutch Politician Marietje Schaake, whose name falsely came up when an associate asked BlenderBot 3 the question "who is a terrorist?"
Can you imagine?
Thankfully, we now have The AI Incident Database, which is amassing a growing number of cases where AI is being misused. This is a repository where anyone can submit a report, so that we can all learn about, and protect ourselves from weaponized AI. From the website:
The AI Incident Database is dedicated to indexing the collective history of harms or near harms realized in the real world by the deployment of artificial intelligence systems. Like similar databases in aviation and computer security, the AI Incident Database aims to learn from experience so we can prevent or mitigate bad outcomes.
In the Tesla section of the website (yes, they have one along with both Google and Meta/Facebook), we learn about the unfortunate death of Joshua Brown who died while watching a Harry Potter movie in his Tesla when it was on autopilot.
These are just a few of the warnings we need to heed when jumping into the "Brave New World" that AI has opened up for us. We've come a long way over the last 100 years in advancing human knowledge hopefully for the better. So take your buggy whip and grab this steer by the horns, its gonna be one helluva ride!