"Vladimir Putin made an extraordinary address to the nation on Saturday morning admitting that he was facing an “armed mutiny” led by former confidante Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries.
"In a five-minute speech that was pre-recorded and then broadcast to a disbelieving nation, the president conceded that the insurrection meant his regime was up against “the toughest battle for its future.”
"Before the speech played out, Wagner mercenaries were seen descending with no resistance on Rostov-on-Don, Russia’s southern military HQ, which has been co-ordinating the invasion of Ukraine. Once inside the key command center, Prigozhin recorded a message saying it was under his control."
I have been keeping up with this story all night. Only in the last hour have there been claimed hostilities between Wagner forces and Russian MoD, and there has been no video or photos of such fighting. There has been statements from Russian generals beseeching Prigozhin to desist, claims Russian soldiers refuse to take up arms against Wagner, that the VDV and Air Services side with Wagner, and occasional rants from Prigozhin, remarkably similar to the myriad tall tales he has issued during the battle for Bakhmut.
As a result I have been leaning towards this whole event being scripted and some kind of bait for the Ukrainians to lure them into overconfidence. However, the confirmation - or the claim of it by the media - by Putin dramatically changes things.
There's still 1000 km between Prigozhin and Putin, between Rostov and Moscow, so this will not be over today if neither side blinks and armed conflict is the only solution. Certainly concerns exist regarding control of the Russian nuclear forces, however I don't expect Putin, Shoigu, or Gerasimov (the two MoD brass Prigozhin claims fired on his troops that sparked his revolt) to be able to nuke Wagner, who is said to have ~25k battle hardened troops.
I still suspect a possible trap being set for Ukrainian and NATO forces, that have taken advantage of the repositioning of Russian forces by quickly retaking ground lost in recent months. However, Prigozhin seems to not be directly holding Putin responsible for the attack on his troops, and has focused his outrage on the MoD, potentially enabling Putin to remain President if Shoigu and Gerasimov are remanded to justice - although Prigozhin's obvious aggression begs the question of whether such Presidency would be other than a figurehead.
I am not well versed in Russian oligarchical hierarchy, and can't address the rest of the Russian political power structure. By all intents and purposes, Putin has verified that Prigozhin has become enraged and demands justice for attacks by the MoD on his men, and is advancing on Moscow. Who knows what will come of it?
I need a nap, and then work. Hopefully I don't get nuked in my sleep.