There will soon be a chaos in China, similar to the process of the dissolution of the Soviet Union or Yugoslavia: the economic crisis and then financial collapse lead to the collapse of the currency. Finally, the central authority collapses and the country fall apart.
Author: Liu Zhongjing. Born in Changji, Xinjiang, ancestral home in Sichuan, political commentators, writers, screen name "a few volumes residual", with a unique view of history, focus on the invention of the Xia nationality.
The following is a prelude to the future of China by Liu Zhongjing before he ran the United States in 2016.
Time point
Why 17 years?
According to the trend, 17 years should be the first year of floods. The reasons are as follows: No matter who came to power in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, there will be further blockades in your country and your good days in the international community will not be over. Beijing regime will formulate (si) should (si) policy. 17 years is a time window for the outcome of the policy to come into effect and the flood should start from here.
Q: Please estimate the flood of specific time? Can 2020?
Liu Zhongjing: You have to cross the node you can see. What happens in the next step depends on what you did at the node. The flood was an integral route integral made by the vote of all the parties at that time by the node. Before the decisive moment comes, you can not clearly judge which of the various roles in society will go in which direction and what kind of decision will be made; but after the node has passed, no one will make any decision Opportunity, can only be pushed by the times. Before and after a node Just like before you crossed the cliff and after you crossed the cliff: before you passed the cliff, where you go is not easy to say; after you have crossed the cliff, you can only go down and down. So what happens after 17 years depends on the choices made by all parties in the aftermath of the crisis 17 years later, and the choice depends mostly on the values that he has formed in advance.
China's international environment
The West closed the market to China and the Sino-U.S. Relations entered the Cold War mode.
Q: What did you mean for this node in 2017?
Liu Zhongjing: The disappearance of ambiguous space is like blocking East Europe after the Berlin and the East Asians after the Korean War. Before that, just as World War II was over, the nominal alliance could still be symbolically maintained and the face was completely torn apart. After tearing a face, smaller players, like Greece, Turkey, and Iran, must choose between either the West or the Soviet Union. Small countries like the Czech Republic and Hungary, before ambiguous space was destroyed, wanted to join the Marshall Plan and did not formally offend the Soviet troops in the Soviet Union. Then they would not be able to do so. The Soviet Union will directly adopt a positive tactic to overthrow its political power. Ambiguous space still exists, you can be different ... [1 minute]
Q: Liu Zhongjing looks forward to the prospect of China's policy after the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election in the end of the year and the judgment on the trend in East Asia.
Liu Zhongjing: If Hillary Clinton came to power, then several organizations that have been repeatedly mentioned between 10 and 14 years will begin to integrate. The first of these organizations is the expanding U.S.-Japanese security system after 1997; the second is the strategic partnership between the United States and India; and the third is unilateral cooperation between the United States and Southeast Asia, which has been continuously strengthened in recent years. . The Obama administration has already worked hard to bring the United States, Japan and South Korea together. The Democratic government should continue this trend. With the continuous increase of pressure in Beijing, it is logical that Japan and even European countries should be introduced into the mechanism of joint inspection and joint security assurance in the South China Sea. This security guarantee mechanism can even be beyond the scope of East Asia, India, all European countries are likely to join. If Trump came to power, he is more likely to take ... [1 minute]
Q: According to your judgment, if Trump came to power and the 18 post-Communist factions were ruined, how long would Guizhi still survive? Can hold to 2020?
Liu Zhongjing: I do not know how much Trump will put his promises into the running. If he really achieves 100% without a discount, then globalization is over. This can cause a chain reaction because every country has its own special interest in protecting one's hometown. If the United States wants to secure employment for the working class in the United States itself and leave the U.S. companies in the country at the expense of the free trade agreements that have been reached, then all other major economic zones will follow suit and the world will soon be split into In different economic zones, international trade has plummeted. Under such circumstances, the victims are most like Guizhi, there is no expertise, just by the relatively low cost of living, specializing in those who do not need professional and technical skills of living in the dirty The world division of labor in the industry chain is the most likely to be sacrificed. When you engage in globalization, you can contract your dirty work and living. When you are in your hometown, these things will remain locally. Then just ... [1 minute]
Q: If Trump won the election by the end of the year, look forward to China policy and the evolution of Sino-U.S. Relations.
Liu Zhongjing: When Trump came to power, the economic crisis swept over quickly. In this situation, Beijing faces a very embarrassing choice. Before the money is spent, war must be launched. A little later than three or five years, there can be no more money to support even a short war. Trump's administration will lead to a diplomatic shuffle, and the chaos in the shuffle will be a huge temptation. If we do not take advantage of such chaos, we will no longer have such a chance. Beijing, on the other hand, is actually preparing for both. As can be seen from his theory of "2049," on the one hand, he knows fewer and fewer opportunities. On the other hand, he hopes that he will continue to fiddle with domestic people for the benefit of domestic people I am still mixed in the world, but also very face-saving, so you can mix two years. These two paths are just like two different choices prepared by Chiang Kai-shek before 1937, not to the point of the final decision ... [1 minute]
China's internal situation
the real situation in China.
Q: How long do you think the economy can last?
Auntie: Soon. According to the present speed, can we support the end of this year are very problematic. Hold to October, up to October, foreign exchange is empty. You do not see pork prices soaring now? This is a harbinger of turmoil. Real estate is no impact on rising, it is a cage, super-money like the tiger was locked into the real estate of this cage. Because of this, the over-issued currency did not make rice, wheat prices. Now the cage is no longer closed, so the price of daily necessities is soaring. With the soaring food prices, large-scale civil commotion will surely rise. Once a large-scale civil commotion has started, the maintenance cost will have to rise sharply. This is actually a road to a civil war. Most of the cities in the northern and southern regions, below the second and third lines, now have a broken capital chain. Can not afford the mortgage, ghost city, and bank deaths these cases, basically the entire North China is now this way. Zhengzhou certainly is this way, to Wuhan is only a matter of time. At most, you can count on it probably will not rush to Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, Shenzhen, but in addition will certainly, the entire capital chain will certainly fall down. The speed of this fall is very fast, conduction speed is very fast, like a fire.
Q:China recently released a large central bank, how long do you think? If you have been reusing this strategy, what will happen?
Liu Zhongjing: let go a few months, but the effect is getting worse. This way is like when you are thirsty, someone holding a watering pipe, brushing the brush in front of you to continue to spray water, his purpose is to spray the water spray to the garden, not to spray You, but because you are lying in front of him, the splashes of water will be more or less splashed into your own mouth, and then a few drops of water will solve your thirst, so that you temporarily feel better, but the ejected Most of the water is flying over your head, falling into the field and not entering your body. The result is the same as the water. The largest beneficiaries of water diversion and the most active demand for water diversion must be the local governments in the Mainland. They have already thirsty and dying, and a little water is very precious to them. However, most of the water released just flows through their mouths, and a few drops into their mouths, the vast majority of which are rapidly turned into foreign currencies through the two ports of Shenzhen and Shanghai into various kinds of ... ... [1 minute]
Q: There is an analysis now that China because of the big site, HongLong casually handing over some assets or power will be able to change money for more than a decade without any problems, such as liberalizing education and medical treatment, liberalizing the land and allowing private direct As long as they carry the national defense and maintenance costs, China can not be a problem, the internal people and lower middle bureaucratic lift no spray, the outside world as long as the developed countries and China doing business profitable, Even if some of China's actions affect the world order, there will not be a flood. After all, no one will give up any interest when it comes to making money. Therefore, it is not a problem that China should last at least for 30 to 50 years. What do you think for this?
Liu Zhongjing: This thing is not already happened before it? And it is not a secret. This is one of the most controversial issues debated by people in the nineties. I think everybody's forgiveness is really too big. Actually adopted at that time was the same as that of Russia, except that Russia had a formal democracy, so it sold something and gave the common people a bottle of vodka, and then everyone was scolded for a mess; Like Russia, the things that can be sold are sold out, but not even a bottle of vodka was distributed to everyone, let Zhao family people to divorce. That is how it can support more than a dozen years, or when the nineties, civil servants are not playing white striped it? We should not forget so fast this time. Selling things support a dozen years, and then backed by air-to-air support for more than a decade, so we can maintain until now. The problem now is that the things that are sold, the mortgaged things, not only sell everything, but also sell everything that is not available and can not be sold at all, much like the one that Ding Baozhen went to the pawn shop The thing sent to the pawn shop was just an empty box, but it was still secured. Ding Baozhen pawn box can not be opened, because there is nothing inside, will both sides of the transaction into a fraud
Guilty The debt owed by city-finance companies in this way over the past decade is unclear even if the whole of Japan is sold, which is why PPP (Public Private Partnerships) is a must. PPP can not be filled, the next step is to close the door hit the dog.
Q: China is still the largest manufacturing base in the world at present. Have you underestimated the catastrophic consequences of the collapse of china for the global economy?
Liu Zhongjing: No matter what time, the most low-end industries are the most easy to replace, that coolies are always the most easy to replace. However, with the change of the ecological chain, sometimes it is regarded as a high-end industry in an earlier period. After a period of time it has become a low-end industry. This can not be generalized and judged according to the niche at that time. The textile industry used to be a high-end industry during the Puritan Revolution, but it is now a very low-end industry. The steel industry was considered a high-end industry during World War II, but it has now become a very low-end industry. No matter at what time, the industry is divided into high-end and low-end, center and periphery, and China these industries, unfortunately, always stand on the verge of position. Marginal industries are numerically easy to replace, no matter how large in number. Before the American Civil War, with the gross national product and economic profits, the South was not lagging behind and the pure net profits were even higher. However, Egyptian cotton replaced the cotton in the South for only 35 or 35 years.
Q: Southeast Asia is inferior to China in terms of population size. Can Southeast Asia fully assume the status of a world factory?
Liu Zhongjing: This question does not exist. There are 100 million people in the Philippines, 200 million in Indonesia, more than 100 million in the Indochina Peninsula, and more than 100 million in Myanmar and Thailand. This population, in total, has already surpassed the population of the coastal areas from Dalian to Guangzhou Bay. And their demographic structure is much younger than the demographic structure in the strip from Dalian to Guangzhou Bay. In fact, the available working population in China is no longer as good as that in Southeast Asia if it is counted as a young population under the age of 40. Most of these people come from peasants in rice-growing areas. Their personalities are very similar to those working in the foundry industry in the Pearl River Delta to Dongguan. They are able to tolerate prolonged work and discipline. Therefore, any processing industry that can be engaged in Guangdong has no problem in the two deltas of Vietnam. Indonesia, it may not yet be compared with Vietnam's labor technology, but on the ... [1 minute]
Q: How do you see the so-called China industrial chain in Southeast Asia and other advantages, as well as the engineer bonus?
Liu Zhongjing: Industrial chain advantage does not exist, but there are logistics advantages. As most of the industrial chains are in foreign countries, the factors that really constrain the movement of the industrial chain are the supporting facilities for finance and logistics on the one hand, and the compatibility of factors for production on the other on the other hand. Most of these factors Neither in China nor in Southeast Asia, both sides can not control the situation there. China's real advantage over Southeast Asia is that it has 20 to 30 years of road network and infrastructures built earlier than others. This advantage exists for the coast; but for the Mainland, this advantage is largely offset by the high cost of transportation to the coast. From now on to the next ten years, the advantage of coastal areas relative to the coastal areas of Vietnam and India still exists, but will continue to decrease.
Beijing's current strategy - the AIIB and the Belt and Road Initiative
The AIIB and the Belt and the Road is a gamble of death not only failing to fill the West's loss of closing down markets to China, but also a bottomless pit that is more likely to lead to the opening of China's western gateway and the massive invasion of various extremist groups.
AIIB is an extraordinary adventure. The adventurous meaning is - it is more like the French operation in India (1642, the establishment of the East India company in France, and in 1668 in India's Surat, Mo Sulipapram, São Tomma, Kindernagal The establishment of a number of trade points, but always with the British, Dutch and Indian native forces fighting constant, and gradually lost), but also worse. Because the places it invests are traditionally neglected by past financiers. The past, the reason why the financiers ignored it is absolutely not without their intent, they have no reason to live with their own business. After their examination, they feel that there is basically no debt repayment in these places.
The AIIB is the question. Why is it going to be invested in Pakistani or Afghanistan? To put it in a straightforward way: because former capitalists were not willing to invest in these places because the investment in these places is not guaranteed. These mines in Afghanistan are very good in terms of the quality of the copper mine. If you look at the quality of a copper mine, it should be expensive to sell. Mines in China, which may be a few percentage points, are desperately mined, and 20% of the others seem to have not mined yet. But why those places are not mined? Because of the political instability in Afghanistan, you also do not know whether the new government will recognize your property.
In the future, the Belt and Road will face two choices. Either you should take a big payoff again. I do not want this investment. Or you, like the Japanese or German businessmen before World War I, persuaded their own government to send a Kwan-East Corps to go there Taliban drove me out and took me back to that place. The fundamental motive of the September 18th Incident was that you attacked the Kanto Railway (the Wicker Lake incident) invested by our Japanese company, hindered our normal operation, and our Kwantung Army was to maintain order, drive you out and retake the place. If you do not want to be a victim of mischief, you should prepare an army and, if necessary, safeguard your property rights and interests. Without such preparation, the possibility of being a victim of mischief can be very great. In Pakistan, where you invest these places in the future, sooner or later, not sooner or later, you will face such a situation in the very near future.
The One Belt and One Road will certainly set numerous enemies for China in the next one or two decades. These enemies easily penetrate the western border of China. That is not something your bank delegation can handle. So if your investment covers everything from Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, to the Gulf of Aden and the dangerous road to Syria, the chances of recovering costs are close to zero and the possibility of creating a serious armed conflict is enormous of.
Whether these places can be maintained or not depends on whether you are on the east coast or not adopting an adventurous policy. If you, like the Turks, backed the EU against the Kurdish independence movement (about a quarter of the territory of the Kurds in Turkey and the Kurdish separatist movement has plagued Turkey for a long time), then you still have a long-term resistance to capital . If you are fighting on two fronts, wanting to back up the west as a back-up and launch new conflicts in the Pacific Ocean, your expedition will be very rapid. You will be finished as quickly as Chiang Kai-shek. When Chiang Kai-shek resisted Japan, his basic purpose was to take the Soviet Union as the rear seat of China and resist Japan. After Japan collapsed, China quickly passed the TG into the hands of the Soviet Union. If China takes Islamist forces as the back of the country and Pakistan as the back of the country and begins the war on the United States and Japan, it can be asserted that it will certainly fail. After the failure, perhaps the coastal zone will fall into the hands of pro-American forces, but the barren and unprofitable interior may be divided up by the Islamic world just as it was divided up by the Pro-TG in 1948. This is an easy-to-profit algorism because, for the U.S. and pro-American forces, the inland is unprofitable and has no value in occupation. This is a fundamental reason why it did not defend the Kuomintang in 1948. But for the poor Soviet Union, even landlocked is worth occupying. For the more impoverished Islamic State, it is profitable to infiltrate western China, but the United States and Japan will definitely not be able to justify the addition of the coastal economy Any place outside the area have any interest.
When the construction of Cistanche was completed, I think it is unlikely that the international militants will invade me toward the west on a large scale in the recent five years and are unlikely to be further delayed. Because Islamic State and the Taliban have already started announcing jihad in Afghanistan. The border facing the Chidachi and Wakhan Corridors is already a gateway. It is unlikely that they will not come. And my theory of self-comforting is that it has already bought the Taliban, and the Taliban's position is in favor of China. But this is useless thing. In the extremely complicated places of tribal and religious denominations in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan, if you buy a faction, the result is that all factions of that faction automatically become enemies, and you can not have all People buy it. This is the inevitable end of China's business in those places.
No solution to the Taiwan issue
The issue of Taiwan is a matter of TG's legitimacy
It is a window of opportunity, precisely because the future is not as good as now, so it is imperative now. So you see something that is apparently offensive and in fact defensive. The main reason for defensiveness is that now is not done well, and then can not afford to say no. Why was Chiang Kai-shek an irreversible war in 1937, because Manchukuo stood firm in another 10 years, so although I was not ready now, I would rather drag you to the water and die with you ... This is irrational, but In the reason. However, this person is unreasonable. Chiang Kai-shek initially started a civil war in Northeast China. Lastly, he wanted civil war in the Northeast. This is the reason for all. This is not the case for Jade's fragmentation. Instead of being northeast, I am a small court in the south. To die together, this logic is likely to play a role. Because now unlike Chiang Kai-shek, you may want to delay the situation may be even worse. And TG look at the feeling of Tai Wan KMT look northeast feel almost. This is not just a local problem, but also a question of legitimacy. What I just said is a little leaky. For Chiang Kai-shek, if the Beimu government did not do so when we did not judge the situation at all, Saying that they sold the country all day long, and as a result I came up with the logic of it to continue selling, then I am not as good as the Beiyang government. According to this logic, it is indispensable. Because he came to power the logic is that others are not as good as it is to safeguard the nation-state, and only if it is upheld, he will not be able to retreat from taking power. Now that the problem of Tai Bay is going like this. Now that opportunities are getting worse and worse afterwards. However, as a result, the logic of the revolutionary renaissance and the rise of the great powers and the rejuvenation of China have become entirely bankrupt. In order not to let the logic go bankrupt, this is a window of opportunity. The other countries are not armed yet, and your armed forces have not declined yet. The window opens. This is the same as before Germany, a German admiral posting with Hitler, the relative strength of Germany in 1943 peaked, will go downhill, why? Because Germany reorganized the army 20 years ahead of other countries, so when your army peaked, the others just started. However, if you wait 20 years for others to catch up, even though there is still some progress in the absolute value at present, In terms of value, the gap between you and other neighboring countries is shrinking. China increased military spending since the mid-1990s when all other neighboring countries except the United States cut their military spending, so China is now at The relative strength of the peak. But now other countries are beginning to catch up, and in 20 years you have to give up. So this situation depends on whether you have emboldened, and you now give up, your heart is clear opportunity no longer, can bet that is now. In this case, there are many people who can not resist temptation.
The road to China's future - internal collapse or foreign war
Internal collapse is hard to sustain. When the limit of social endurance is exceeded, rulers may launch an external war and come to an end
Q: China has been continuing to live like this forever, the possibility of maintaining the status quo more than 10 years?
Liu Zhongjing: It is the hardest thing to maintain the status quo. If you want to engage in immortality, then you must first consider the rationing of food. This practice has begun in some places, such as organizations like supply and marketing cooperatives have been revived, at least in some provinces in Northwest and North China. Then they began to give, for example, civil servants or staff and workers of state-owned enterprises and public institutions allotments of various kinds of materials, and those without such qualifications would not be provided with supplies. At the beginning, everyone also looked down on such things, but later less and less supplies, cheap rice, cheap food, cheap potato has become more and more valuable. The beginning of time can also eat dry rice, porridge even at the last meal can not eat. At the beginning of the decade, it seems that the difference with the past is not too big. In ten years, I am afraid that I could not wait for ten years. By the end of the decade, I am almost at odds with North Korea. In such cases, people who are unidentified, unaffiliated, not proficient at black market will be eliminated first, and by the end of this period they will have no chance of surviving.
Q: Please analyze the different results of the collapse caused by the two different countries, namely, the civil war and the collapse.
Liu Zhongjing: There is no difference in the long run, there are differences in the short term. But for many people, long-term and short-term represent very significant speculative opportunities, so there is still a need for differentiation. A civil war will surely cause internal collapse; no civil war, but suffocating only slowly. However, there is a good chance that a civil war-caused internal collapse can take place. You can put your responsibility on the conqueror's head and expect the Conqueror to enter you into order. In this case, you can get a certain amount of capital to start anew and get a better chance of regeneration than a complete collapse. If it is completely ruined, then, already in a highly Fei Lahua, all over Zhang Xianzong environment, you can get the end must be very miserable. Under such circumstances, the terrorist scene that the civilized world has considered absolutely impossible for many years ... [1 minute]
Q: Which of these two paths do you think are the most likely?
Liu Zhongjing: It depends on the very details of the accident. For example, the Marco Polo Bridge incident is not inevitable. When Chiang and the key policy makers around him faced the path of choice, they felt as if he was hesitant when confronted with, for example, two universities that all wanted to go to of. At this time as long as there is a small factor, we can dial the balance on the other hand. Of course, this will not change the overall trend. On the eve of the Lugouqiao Incident, it can be said that the basic strategy of the Kuomintang to join the Soviet Union in cracking down Japan has been established. The war will erupt sooner or later. However, it will not happen at the node of the Lugouqiao Incident. It is not always certain that Chiang Kai-shek will hold another Tanggu agreement. After another two or three years and then broke out, and these two or three years for him, actually a great influence. Now the situation is like this. In the South China Sea, Taiwan and the Diaoyu Islands, any subtle stimulus event could put the showdown crisis two or three years ahead of schedule or drag on for two or three years. And in my opinion, ... [1 minute]
Q: Auntie, I am a new fan. I am very interested in your flood theory. You spoke of the 2017 floods on several occasions. However, due to the high degree of economic interdependence and the war's scale, Is there any such cruel process that is ever present in the increasingly dependent life of peace? I think it is hard to imagine ah!
Liu Zhongjing: Dependence, so dangerous. Local disturbance easily spread, local war in the nineteenth century will be upgraded to the first world war. In the long run, small and complex ecological environment is the safeguards. However, such guarantees have to come at the cost of frequent, localized extinctions and substitutions or, conversely, mechanisms that avoid the small risks of continuity have in practice increased the risk of intermittency.
Q: Is there any possibility of an outbreak of war between nuclear countries? Will the United States really fight a nuclear war with its allies in Asia and China? "This is not afraid of all the nuclear level in the east of Xi'an," the same rogue attitude can intimidate the United States?
Liu Zhongjing: China is not qualified to fight a nuclear war. Since the Soviet Union collapsed, no one on Earth has been entitled to a nuclear war. The present nuclear war is nothing more than a unilateral massacre. That is to say, if you provoke and then be completely checked out, you will simply not be eligible to fight an evenly matched nuclear war with the other side. So you are tantamount to saying that I assume that the other party's reason for humanitarian or other bourgeois weakness will not be taken as a straightforward retaliation after crossing the red line. This is a very dangerous assumption. What does nuclear deterrent mean? Nuclear deterrence is the determination to use nuclear weapons. I think the fundamental source of this phenomenon is a self-deception. Since the Japanese launched the Pacific War, they assumed that the Americans were all young men. By the time Iraq believed that the Gulf War was presumed to mean that Americans would not go to the desert to suffer hardship, it is now assumed that Americans are equally offended Humanitarian, so come to Hiroshima and Nagasaki things like that.
Q: In the recent period of time, military exercises have been frequent. Do you think that if the United States and China start a war, will the People's Liberation Army be the same as the Sino-Japanese War?
Liu Zhongjing: As far as I know about the veterans and my understanding of the military procurement business, it is still a problem that the current army can pull out to fight a war with the DPRK. Do not say that it has fought the United States. With Japan, it will surely be annihilated by the whole army. There is no such issue at all. Although they have spent a lot of money, bought a lot of military supplies and made a lot of construction, the essence of these things is the same as that of contractors and the municipal government. It is mainly for the sake of sharing into each other. It is inevitable that workers should cut corners and cut corners. And those who are genuinely knowledgeable about the military know that combat effectiveness is an advanced weapon that does not come out to show off primarily on its own, but on the coordination of various weapon systems and professionals. Poor coordination, then your combat effectiveness depends on the worst part, not the best part. For example, you a football team, its ability to how strong, the first is not to see if it has a Maradona, but to see if all its players can coordinate well.
Beijing's current selection window
The time window is about a year. There are only three roads. A, stars, the sea one by one, must be prepared in advance.B, eight greatly re-create brilliant, there is more than one channel.C, southeast of mutual insurance civilized disintegration, there are more than one channel.
A need to be prepared in advance, the sign can not hide. From now on, the longer the time is delayed, the poorer the financial support capability is. The less the surprise attack will be, the smaller the relative advantage of the arms race in East Asia will be. The best hope in Beijing is nothing more than the U.S. withdrawal from the United States and the nuclear issue to be avoided. The DPRK war replaces itself with Taiwan as a replacement for North Korea and forcing the people to endure the hardships of the next two decades and proclaim victory in the blockade line. However, even with the support of the Soviet Union, Mao Zedong can not insist on a single year. The mainland system that Moscow and the Islamic world might provide could not surpass Stalin, and Moscow could easily betray Asians for the sake of a semi-European identity. As a result of this path, North Korea did not produce blood transfusions, and no more than 30 times as many blood transfusions were made to the guards in China. The border between Neya and Southeast Asia is much more complicated than the 38-line no man's land and the Tumen River in the Yalu River. The Ho Chi Minh trail can not be stopped The A channel thus leads to B or eight large.
If shamelessly retreated in Beijing, the choice of time will be almost a year. The logic of keeping a low profile and waiting for better opportunities can no longer be used because the conditions for international relations in the future arms race on the financial population will only deteriorate. After the withdrawal of only two or two way out. Returned to curry favor with the Western route, let the Lenin Ning campaign back to the slightest, into the usual flattery training. Thus, the trend of the rise of the male Hufu era re-play, open C channel or southeast mutual insurance.
Another option of retreat is that despite the total abandonment of external relations, the internal insistence on substantive redezining will not be enough to prevent the male masters from looking up. This means that it is impossible to substantially reduce the security spending burden in the same way that Deng Xiaoping did during the 1980s. Under the Trump era of regionalism and the return of the U.S. dollar, only the continental system can make up for the losses in the U.S. market. Therefore, Belt and Road must be promoted. Beijing's capital should integrate Islamic manpower. Among such an anti-Western alliance, the relations between the eight major powers and the seven major powers are precisely the relations between the Comintern and Chiang Kai-shek during the War of Resistance against Japan. As this path progressed to the next node, only the redefinition of Lenin, the two new exporters of B and C, would be more successful, sending the entire East Asia into its eight great hands. If unsuccessful, it would be dismantled Southeast mutual insurance and eight greatly separated.
The tragedy when the flood came
Q: If Guizhi into anarchy, what terrible things happen? Please describe the dangerous situation.
Liu Zhongjing: This kind of thing has happened many times in history. The first is the rationing system. Cooperating with the great development of the black market, the distribution is getting less and less. Finally, the entire control machine is disintegrated and society falls into the hands of rogue or bandit groups that still maintain combat effectiveness. Only they can stockpile materials in a robbery way. Most people who have no connection with them or who are waiting for rationing start to flee. Most of the refugees have no way to reach their destination, or they simply can not reach the right destination, where they want to go and what they want to leave The place is actually as bad, even worse. The overwhelming majority of the people who have left their hometown will never disappear in history and can not suspense how they died in the end. The greater possibility is that they experienced cannibalism before they died, such as the Franklin Expedition or Kong Rong Have seen the Han Dynasty that year-end situation.
The tragedy of the flood and life science
Aunt casually said that every time your country dynasty, the imperial capital will be emptied. Only the Manchu exception, many silly dolls still questioned, I can only say that they are too anxious to read. Aunt said is a very simple and conclusive fact. The mode of operation of the empire is to recruit resources from all over to support the imperial capital, and the imperial capital basically lacks any self-sufficiency. When the imperial order collapses, the imperial capital will immediately fall into a huge state of lack of supplies. In the first winter, more than half of them will die of hunger. Asmitov's writings of Chuan Tuo fall is this scene. Then there looters, and finally the Peasant Uprising army massacre. In short, after the change of the dynasty, the new DPRK must have been an empty former front and old capital. In fact, if no Qing troops enter the customs, the Pekingese will soon be massacred to death. During the Great Flood, your country will become a man-eating paradise overwhelmed by the deepest glimpses of any dynasty. The reference to any record of the change of dynasties shows that "in the last years of the certainty, banditry is rampant, people are not born fresh, and children eat easily". Auntie said that we can pay attention to the news of Russia in the next two to three years. The tragedy multiplied by ten times is the grand flood scene in your country.
Can people survive the floods, look at geographical endowments, look at the capacity of civil organizations. Geographical endowment is good to say that the more rich the land, the more able to feed more people, the stronger the resilience. In this sense, Manchuria, where Manchuria has a tremendous possible invasion of the Siberian Far East, will be forced to land in the land of abundance, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta more than the inland areas.
The ability to simply organize is the opposite of the degree of ferrarization. The diversity of traditional (organizational forms of human society) is a good medicine against the flood. Different organizational forms, the efficiency is different. Some organizations are fit for survival in harsh environments, but inefficient for a relatively rich environment; others can not survive in harsh conditions, but can have great advantages in affluent areas. But before a real test, no one knows which tradition is better, and once the tradition is destroyed, it disappears forever. Even if it is "regaining tradition," it is a tradition re-established as it is. In other words, there are many folk traditions that look vulgar but because they are spontaneously growing on the land, they tend to have strong vitality and in times of crisis these crude traditions may save many lives. The expansion of the agricultural empire is actually the process by which the empire eliminated its traditions with its own traditions. The agricultural empire tradition is Fei Lahua. But the empire has limited control and different control over different regions within the territory. To put it simply, the closer to the center of the empire, the more serious the fervor of the people is. The more it is in the area far away from heaven and high emperors, the easier it is to preserve its own traditions.
Aunt gave an example to let us understand the importance of traditional diversity: the social form under the imperial rule is equivalent to a highly homogeneous wheat field, and although it is high-yielding, it is easy to leave alien species once invading alien species . And the multinational system that adheres to its tradition is like a rainforest. All kinds of ecological niches are thriving. It is hard for you to have a creature that can destroy all other creatures.
In general, the floods are coming, the more dangerous the closer and closer to the imperial center, the more prosperous those areas of the imperial border that are honest and generous will be. In addition, the morality of the crowd you live in with you is also important. If you find yourself living anywhere in Sodoma, where you are puffer fish, you will be hit by floods even if the rich land where milk and honey flow Washed away together.
Everything is locked in the path
In short, the ideology of the Red Dragon determines the flood is doomed. For example, Green teach is a germ, parasitic body can live a very viable, but not the host can live, that is, live in the stick. But red teach is a virus. According to the teachings of the Red Sect, if the purpose of the Red Cross is truly fulfilled, the host will surely be killed and the virus will die as soon as the victim dies. As a result, Red Cross countries are in a position of infinite precision: on the one hand, they should promote their own ideological path and on the other, they should not kill the host carefully. Therefore, all Red Riding-country nations must all the way sing the song "From One Great Victory to Another Great Victory," walking the wire and finally ushering in the Great Crash. At the onset of the Great Flood, the state-owned economy resorted to various methods of reincarnation and seizing the nutrients of other members to make itself self-sufficient. This eventually led to a sharp decline in the efficiency of the economy, which was manifested in its ability to cope with the economic crisis. Only the banknote printing machine was prayed for and the last was hyperinflation And the financial crisis.
This ideology of the Red Dragon determines that the Red Dragon is a group of locusts, eating and drinking in a mature field of wheat and eating clean in the field without starving to a new field. 45 years of Manchuria, the demographic dividend of 78 years, is the red dragon face of the newly discovered wheat field when the plight of eating wheat field. Now, your country's demographic dividend basically eats, Honglong urgently needs a new wheat field, and the most likely to be your most recent crop of wheat in the bag is Hong Kong and Taiwan. Red Dragon wants to survive, then it is bound to swallow Hong Kong and Taiwan, with Hong Kong and Taiwan wheat to feed themselves, but time waits for people to not swallow the Hong Kong and Taiwan by 2030 the action will never have a chance. Because according to your country's demographic structure, 2030 is the era of full-scale aging and the demographic dividend has become a full liability of the population. Therefore, the tactics used to make a living by the death of this age may seem stupid (in fact, stupid), but this is actually a path that is locked down.