In part I of this series I explained how Asian handicap betting works in general.
This time I will show you a simple example how these kind of odds can be utilized to find arbitrage bets which lead to a win independently from the result of a soccer game (or any other sports event).
I chose an example which I hope you can even comprehend without reading and understanding every detail of part I. Depending on my available time (and my mood) in future I may add part III to present you a somewhat more complicated example.
Source: Pixabay
We need an example, let's choose the coming soccer match Portugal against Mexico!
Let's consider the odds of some European bookmakers for the coming FIFA Confederations Cup match between Portugal and Mexico:
| Bookie |
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|---|---|---|---|
| bwin |
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| Marathonbet |
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| bet-at-home |
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In this example European odds alone are not good enough for placing an arbitrage bet.
To check if an arbitrage bet is possible at all let's use the test formula which I presented in my article "How to make profit with betting exchanges?":
If inserting the best odds of the bookmakers above we get:
The result of this equation is about 1.014. However, as described before, it must be less than 1.0 - otherwise no arbitrage bet is possible.
Asian odds come into play and save the day! :)
Before continuing I should note that this is an example only so that in this case I chose Asian odds which in reality have already changed (odds change rather fast after big amounts of money were placed on them).
As this example should be as simple as possible, we will consider the 'Asian handicap +0.5' (AH +0.5) odds which you could get for Mexico. To bet on 'Mexico +0.5' means that you will win the bet in case Mexico wins or also if the game ends with a draw (compare my part I article to learn more).
To cover every possible outcome of the game we have to combine the best odds for a victory of Portugal with the best odds for 'Mexico +0.5'. That results in a new table:
| Bookie |
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|---|---|---|
| bwin |
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| SBOBET (an Asian bookie) |
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In this case the test formula looks as follows:
The result of this equation is about 0.994 which is less than 1.0 - an arbitrage bet is possible.
How to calculate the winnings?
The test formula tells us that a save win is possible, but how to calculate the stakes? Here is the 'recipe':
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Choose your stake (S1) on Portugal. Let's assume we decide to place 1000 euro on that team. Of course we use "bwin" as they offer the highest odds (O1) on Portugal in our example.
Our possible winnings (W1) in case that Portugal wins would beW1 = O1 ∙ S1 = 2.10 ∙ 1000 euro = 2100 euro.
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Calculate the stake for Mexico AH +0.5 (S2) using the formula
S2 = W1 / O2 = 2100 euro / 1.93 ≈ 1088 euro.
(Of course here you choose SBOBET to place the bet.)
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Our possible winnings (W2) in case that either Mexico wins or the game ends in a draw would be
W2 = O2 ∙ S2 = 1.93 ∙ 1088 euro = 2099.84 euro.
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That means if Portugal wins we win 2100 euro, if Mexico wins or the game ends as a draw we win 2099.84 euro.
If we consider the smaller of the winnings and subtract all stakes we win at least
Wmin = 2099.84 euro - 1000 euro - 1088 euro = 11.84 euro.
That might not appear to be much, but the good thing is that we win anyway, independently of the result of the game. Moreover, the higher the stakes and the better the odds, the higher the overall winnings.
Very often much more complicated combinations of odds are necessary to maximize the winnings, but then of course also mathematics is getting more complicated. An example would be to combine 'Portugal AH -0.25' with 'Mexico double chance' and 'Mexico win'.