What is the status of
nuclear weapons in 2017?
These are the lone catego-
ry of weapons of mass des-
truction still to be out-
lawed, although the very
rst resolution of the UN
General Assembly
pledged was regarding
their abolition. The good
news, in the form of the
adoption of a new UN trea-
ty, prohibits the testing,
production, acquisition
and transfer of nuclear
arms and seeks to punish
states for the environmen-
tal and humanitarian con-
sequences of all such ac-
tivity.
Are the world’s nine
ocial and unocial
Nuclear Weapons States
(NWSs) on board?
No. All of them, and their
allies, boycotted the treaty
negotiations. They still
swear by the deterrent va-
lue of nuclear weapons
and defend their position
citing North Korea’s nu-
clear belligerence, which
they simultaneously de-
nounce. The treaty pro-
vides a pathway for the
NWSs to disarm and join
the global ban.
How close is Pyongyang to
having the dreaded
weapon?
The government asserted
that the underground ex-
plosion the country con-
ducted in September, the
sixth and most powerful
since the 2006 detona-
tion, was a hydrogen
bomb. Experts view the
claim with scepticism but
there is near unanimity
that the North Korean nu-
clear programme is at an
intermediate stage of de-
velopment. Similarly, the
intercontinental ballistic
missile Pyongyang
launched in late Novem-
ber, named Hwasong15, is
believed to be bigger and
more powerful than the
devices tested previously.
Its ecacy must be
viewed against the Hwa-
song14, red earlier this
year, capable of landing
nuclear warheads on the
U.S. mainland.
Can the world halt
Pyongyang’s nuclear
expansion?
The UN Security Council
imposed its latest round of
sanctions on the regime of
Kim Jongun last week in a
bid to force the dictator to
give up his nuclear ambi-
tions.
Whatever the eects of
the punitive measures
clamped in the past, they
have singularly failed to
achieve that objective.
Beijing and Moscow advo-
cate a freeze on the coun-
try’s nuclear programme
in exchange for the sus-
pension of joint military
exercises between the U.S.
and South Korea. Wash-
ington has shot down the
proposal, opting to mount
international pressure on
North Korea to give up nu-
clear arms altogether.
Conversely, the game plan
of the Kim regime seems
to rst obtain recognition
as an NWS, then enter ne-
gotiations and eventually
win concessions from the
crippling sanctions. As
Washington confronts the
reality of shrinking room
for military action, the di-
plomatic argument could
win the day.