Ok, hear me out. The amount of Steem you're going to earn is very likely to go down. My favorite hedgefund is managed by a dude named Willy Woo who is an Austrailian. His fund is called Adaptive Fund. He doesn't read tea leaves like technical analysts like to do by inspecting chart formations and anticipating moves because of them. He uses the power of blockchain to determine his investments. He can study on chain volume between accounts, which is publicly accessible data, to determine where money is flowing and how much of it is flowing from old wallets, new wallets, and when people's behavior is shifting.
He and his firm went long on BTC a week ago because his on chain data of large scale investor fund movement supported that decision. This is crazy bullish to me because the market for BTC is still dealing with 500 tokens a day from the plus token scam and we have 1800 tokens a day from BTC mining. That's all sell pressure, and price is still keeping pace and climbing.
Bitcoin is roughly $9k. So if there's 2300 tokens for sale per day from just those two categories then there's 20.7M dollars a day coming into btc to push price up and hold it there. In may it'll drop to 900 tokens sold per day from those two sources. So, that's 8.1M. But the people going long will assume there isn't much that's going to alter the inflows, which means the $12M dollars a day will still be coming in, but with no new BTC to supply the market it'll simply push the price up. That's bullish!
We've seen this pattern skip alts. The last push skipped alts, but it looks like this one is hitting all of them, and Steem is doing pretty good. We're up higher than top 10 coins like Litecoin for the week. Thanks Koreans!!!
I'm not surprised by this at all. First, markets are designed such that large professional investors beat down prices to accumulate, and raise them to sell later. So, from a market perspective that's what I think is playing out. I also think there are technological and fundamental reasons Steem will do well.
I may be in the minority of thought but Steem solves a lot of problems really well. We need growth, but not in Ram. Thanks Mira. We need a way to promote what we're doing. Thanks blogging platform. We need a way to inexpensively make tools here. Thanks custom json. We want to know who we are doing business with. Thanks human readable account names. We're really well poised. We have a very large community. They're a little dormant now, but they're not dead. They'll come back in droves to play Steem when the price is high. I'll revisit my madlib soon to help them all out.
We can scale. Competitors like Eth and Eos seem to have some issues with that. We offer free transactions. It seems like blockchain transaction fees hurt real use cases like gaming because players don't like the idea of spending 6 cents for every action they want to take. We have real apps that real people use like steemit, dtube, 3speak, Steemhunt, and Splinterlands. I suspect they'll grow very strongly during this run.
Steem up amount of Steem down.
The good news is that the price of Steem looks ready to go on a tear. The bad news is that when the price of Steem goes up you earn less of it. The overall value of what you hold is likely to go up, you'll be getting less Steem. In a bull run you want as much Steem as possible since there's some funky patterns at play. the more steem you have the easier it is to get followers and thus get votes. So, getting in now is great. But as you're earning and your stake is growing during a bull run it's also increasing in value every day. So, the more you can get earlier in the process will benefit you throughout the full run!
So, for all the people who stopped posting during the Bear you've been missing out and you're going to keep missing out. The Steem you earned when it was 10 cents, when you could earn a lot of it looks poised to go on a full bull run. We hit 20 cent steem this week. The amount of Steem you'll earn is literally cut in half when that happens.
Who knows what it will be worth. I bet yabapmatt a nice dinner we'd hit $10/steem again before May of 22 (2 years after the halvening). That said, My own price targets are substantially higher than that. i think that's an easy bet for me to win.
But every time Steem advances what you had goes up, and the value of each steem that you previously held goes up, but the amount of Steem you earn goes down. So, when it's low like this is your best chance to accumulate it. Write stories, tell your friends, get people doing this NOW so that you're in the best position possible to take advantage of high Steem prices.
You don't want to have build at $10/steem. There will be too much competition. If you can grow your audience now you'll have a much better chance to make a reasonable wage by social mediaing here as part of your social media experience.
Lastly, you don't have to make Steem the only thing you're doing. If you're trying to gain influence in the space this is just one stop along the way. Post to youtube, use twitter, and leave your thoughts on the Steem blockchain.
Lastly, this isn't meant to be financial advice. I don't know you or your circumstances. So, I can't tell you if you should be selling your house for monsters, or paying off your debts so you can eat next week. This is meant to remind you that you should be posting. Play the Steem game and stop waiting.
You should have stayed posting, but you need to get back into it now. Yes Steem is 15-20 cents today, and your wage is only like $5 an hour right now, but with a little patience it'll kick the shit out of anything else you could possibly do with your time, and you can capture that now and spend later. Future you will thank me.