In an interview at the Code Conference 2016, Elon Musk said:
"The odds we're in base reality is one in billions."
This was in answer to a question about where he stood on the Simulation Argument. [1]
If you haven't come across this argument before, then you have missed one of the greatest movies of all time, The Matrix. Oh, you did see that movie? Then you're familiar with the conundrum; are we in the real universe, or a simulation?
Musk is betting on the simulation.
Upon reading his words, most of us thought either 'meh', 'cool' or 'hungry, need bacon', and then continued sending birthday posts on Facebook (or stood up and headed to the kitchen).
But hold up... don't you think the possibility that we're in a video game is worth a five minute inspection? At the very least, you need enough information to discard the notion so you can sleep easy at night. Alternatively you might just need enough of a shock to...
Wake up, Neo.
Before I continue I want to say this:
I'm aware that The Matrix has become an overused metaphor on the internet, especially in conspiracy and new age circles. However, I hope you'll humour me in my use of it here since we're actually not talking metaphorically at all, and that's the point.
Where did this idea originate?
The idea that our universe might not be 'real' is an ancient philosophical concept dating back to the Vedic texts and Indian spirituality where reality is described as "that which exists, but is constantly changing and thus is spiritually unreal." [2]
There are also lots of other occurrences of the same general concept throughout history, such as the idea that we're all 'brain's in a vat' but let's not linger on those.
One recent event has slapped mankind in the face with this possibility more than anything else:
The development of computers and games.
It's from that viewpoint that Musk's logic ran. His thought experiment went something like this:
- Look at the rate that our computer power is increasing.
- Consider the 3D, almost photo realistic video games we have right now.
- Add in the coming of age of virtual reality.
- Plus a pinch of The Sims and WOW.
- Now project all this forward 100, 1,000 or even 100,000 years.
And then answer this question:
Will future generations be capable of creating a perfect simulation of reality?
This is starting to get a little serious... isn't it.
Let's all take a breath and look at this gif, to remind ourselves that humour is our greatest defence against 'reality'.
The Simulation Argument (Bostrom's Trilemma)
Elon Musk is a fan of the work of a Philosopher at the University of Oxford named Nick Bostrom.
Bostrom is famous for his explorations of existential threats to mankind. In 2003 he created the simulation argument in which he argues that one of three propositions must be true.
Here are Bostrom's three propositions:
- Intelligent civilisations almost never reach the stage where they're capable of creating an ancestor simulation.
- Civilizations who become capable of creating an ancestor simulation are almost never interested in creating them.
- We're in a simulation.
I should point out as well, that Bostrom proposes that we ourselves might be simulated, rather than real and asleep as in The Matrix. A humbling thought. I for one wish my creator had clicked + on the height button just a little more when deciding on my specs... but who cares, right?
I'm not going to attempt to debate all the propositions here, I'll leave that for you to nut out in the comments. I actually can't wait to hear your thoughts and arguments because I find this whole concept fascinating and (oddly) life-affirming.
So, where do you stand on this and why?
I'm going with number 2 (call me an optimist)
Closing thought
To be honest (as well as a little cheeky), it's not hard to understand why Elon Musk might believe that he's in a video game. Presumably, in his game, the aim is to:
- Start from nothing
- Become the most loved entrepreneur on the planet
- Save the world from fossil fuelled destruction
- Colonise Mars.
That sounds like a pretty fun game... and one he's well on the way to completing.
But if I'd been allowed to ask one question at Code Conference 2016, it would have been this:
"Elon, given that you believe you're in a video game, do you think it's a multiplayer?"
--
--
Sources
[1] Elon Musk's Interview at Code Conference 2016 (you have to watch this).
[2] M Hiriyanna (2000), The Essentials of Indian Philosophy, Motilal Banarsidass, ISBN 978-8120813304, pp. 25, 160-161
[3] Nick Bostrom's talk on his simulation argument.
[4] Wikipedia (I know, I know)
@gavvet features authors to promote new authors and a diversity of content. All STEEM Dollars for this post go to the featured author