Preflop
I raise from the BTN with JTs and the SB calls:
Preflop Equity Estimation
If you haven't seen my post on how to calculate preflop equity quickly, check it out here.
I believe my opponent (as I don't have many hands on him) is calling here about 30% of the time.
My equity estimation is: J(11)2 +T(10) + 20 + suited(2) = 54%*
However, we have to take into account that a 30% calling range reduce a little bit our equity, so I estimate about 50%.
Equity Reality Check
The reality is that we win 47% of the time and tie 3%, so we do not lose 50% of the time against our opponent, not so bad:
The Flop
Our opponent checks, we bet 2/3 pot and our opponent min-raises:
What is he min-raising with?
I believe he is raising here with his FDs, OESDs, some of his top pairs and better. Also, considering he is a very aggresive player, he might be doing this with some of his A high hands. We now have a 69% equity, so our call was correct:
The Turn
On the turn, he decided to donk-bet 1/2 pot and I call:
What is he donk-betting with?
I think the 7s could have give him some FDs that he didn't have on the flop. He is only betting half pot, so I don't think his hand is great at this point and he should have bet on the larger side if he is trying to protect his hand, so I don't think he has top pair or better. He has some draw or weaker pair:
The River
He decides to bet 1/2 pot and we call:
What is he betting here?
I think that the fact that he is betting again might mean he is going for value on the river now, but I'm not sure what could he possibly have, it might be a monster now or a very weak hand, basically a full house (picking a pair of 7 on the turn) or a pocket pair lower than a J:
The Showdown
He showed up with A7o which was on his final range of 28 combos out of the 302 combos preflop. We had 53% equity against his final range, so our call was good here, just not the result we hoped for.
Summary
Well, although the hand was lost, I think this exercise was really good for honing up the hand reading skill. The hand he showed up with was in the final range we assigned him, so that feels nice!
If you like it, please upvote, comment and follow!!!
Best regards,
@daniel.dalo