Reading hands is a gateway skill to expert poker play. It’s second level thinking. Beginners and other weak players only utilize first level thinking, What is the strength of my hand? Second level thinking is What is the strength of my opponent’s hand? Third level thinking is What does my opponent think I have? Fourth level thinking is What does my opponent think I think about what my opponent has? These iterations can go on and on in high stakes games between world-class poker players.
At a table filled with low stakes amateurs, second level thinking is about as good as it gets. But many of them try to read hands in a very limited way, better than first level thinking, but not really second. They will simply put their opponent on a hand, guessing at a specific hand that an opponent might have, and stick with that guess even if there’s evidence that might point to a different holding.
Instead of putting an opponent on a hand, effective second level thinking assigns a range of possible hands to an opponent and revises (typically, by narrowing) the range as new rounds of betting reveal more information.
A big fat caveat: hand reading can only work against opponents who are, at least, competent poker players. Newbies and other weak players play way too many hands and stay with them for far too long. This makes hand reading difficult if not impossible. How can you guesstimate the strength of their holding based on their actions if they don’t even know the strength of their cards?
I’ve been playing poker for more than a decade but have no illusions about my skill level. You will not see me on television playing heads up against Phil Ivey for high stakes. The biggest games I’ve played are 8/16 limit holdem, 2/5 no-limit holdem, and 10/20 Omaha Hi-Lo, games that you’d buy into for about $500.
A while back, I bought into a 3/6 limit holdem game for $100 at the Canterbury Park card room in Shakopee, Minnesota. Limit is not common in much of the country; no-limit is far more common. But the super geniuses in the Minnesota legislature have decreed that no-limit cash games are illegal and the largest bets can be no more than $100.
The main opponent in this hand is three seats to my left. I’ve played with him before, we’re both semi-regulars at Canterbury. We’ll call him Bob. He’s mid 60’s, a competent but not expert player, somewhat aggressive, not afraid to raise. In poker terminology, a TAG, a tight-aggressive player. He’s lost some pots and is down to only $25. I have seen in the past that he does not lose well. I’ve had little if any experience with other players at the table, but have played in games with Bob at least a dozen times in the last year or so. After having observed the other players over the course of about 40 minutes, my working theory was that he and I were the two strongest players in the game and that I should therefore single him out for attention.
In this hand, he was under the gun, first to act. He called the big blind. I started putting him on a range based on what I know of his playing style and his actions throughout the betting rounds. I removed strong starting hands from his range, things like medium to large pairs, ace-king, and ace-queen. He’s a good enough player that he would have raised with hands like that. I also removed all weak hands, garbage like 9♦️3♣️ or Q♥️4♥️. He would have folded such dreck.
That left maybe a few dozen starting hands in his range of hands that he’d call with from under the gun, out of the 169 possible starting hands in holdem. Small pocket pairs, bigger suited connectors like T♣️9♣️ (Bob would have folded the smaller suited connectors like 5♥️4♥️ from under the gun), suited one-gappers like Q♦️T♦️, and maybe a few unsuited big connectors such as J♠️T♥️.
Two other players called. Both were in their early 20’s, weak players who’d been playing 60-70% of the hands they’d been dealt. Both drinking Coronas. Do not drink alcohol while playing poker, no good can come of it. But if you must drink, come on, you can do better than Coronas. Have some self-respect.
I’m on the button (last to act on all rounds of betting except preflop) and peek at my hole cards to find K♥️J♦️. King-Jack offsuit is mediocre at best. Its poker nickname says it all - The Amateur Hand. It looks good to noobs, two face cards, yay. But if you’re facing a raise, it suddenly doesn’t seem so strong. In early position, it should be an easy preflop fold. But I am on the button, with three other players already in, none of whom has shown strength by raising. The blinds have not yet acted but both are passive calling stations who’ve yet to make a raise. So I call.
Both blinds call. We are six-handed, a very rare outcome at high stakes but quite common at low stakes. I have a tenuous holding given five opponents. I need to hit the flop.
J♥️8♥️3♣️
So I have top pair, second best kicker. Not a monster, not garbage.
The blinds check. Bob bets. Since he’s betting into five opponents, a pure bluff is very unlikely. So I start refining my read on his possible holdings. He might have Jack-something. If so, I am ahead, or perhaps tied if he also has King-Jack. It’s unlikely that he has Ace-Jack. Bob’s aggressive; with AJ he probably would have raised preflop (although he might have called preflop, if so, he’s ahead of me). He could easily have an 8 with a suited connector like 9♠️8♠️. And a heart-suited holding would have given him a flush draw, perhaps encouraging him to semi-bluff (T♥️9♥️ being the strongest of the possible heart-suited holdings). Another possibility is that he limped in with 33 and now has a set of treys. But he didn’t seem all that excited. I don’t have a strong tell but my gut says a Jack or an 8 are his most likely holdings. But I can refine my initial hand read by eliminating all non-heart suited connectors and one-gappers that don’t contain a Jack or an 8. The queen-ten offsuit type hands are also eliminated, as are the baby pocket pairs, except 33.
The Corona dudes both call. We are six-handed. I need to raise here. A raise serves several purposes. It might thin the field if one or both of the blinds drop out. It also charges people who might be on a flush draw with two hearts for the right to see another card, rather than letting them see it for cheap. And if somebody out there happens to have an ace, I also need to make them pay to see another card.
I make it two bets. Both blinds fold. Bob flat calls. Since his chip stack started the hand on the short side and has gotten smaller, this tells me that he does not have pocket threes. If he had a set of threes here, he would want to reraise and get more money in the pot. I have further refined my read of his hand. He has either a Jack or an 8.
The Corona guys both fold. This is another indication that they’re weak players. The pot’s gotten big enough that one more small bet shouldn’t scare them off after they’d already called a flop bet.
The turn comes, 8♦️. Bob snaps to attention, then slowly checks. I bet, for a million reasons. If he does not have an 8 in his hand, I almost certainly have the best hand. And if he does have an 8, I want to know. Instantly, he check-raises. This screams to me that he has an 8. Now, he might as well flip his cards face up, I know what he has.
I know that I’m behind. He’s got three of a kind to my two pair. Yet I call. In no-limit with deep stacks, this would be an easy fold. But in limit, against Bob who has only $4 left, it is an easy call. I have only two outs, the other Jacks. If neither comes on the river and Bob bets all-in, I can fold a largish pot to a small bet because I know that I'm beat.
The river comes, the beautiful J♠️. Bob slumps a bit and checks. I bet and he calls all-in. He shows T♠️8♠️ for eights full of jacks, my jacks full of eights takes the wind out of him. He mutters a few four letter words and gets up and leaves. I was hoping he’d buy back in and play monkey-spaz tilted.
Shuffle up and deal.
Image source: Pixabay (A Friend in Need by Cassius Marcellus Coolidge, 1903)