In this article I am going to analyse what Trump and Clinton REALLY mean for the U.S. and the World, putting aside all the Populism!
Apologies for such a firm start but there are so many articles out there on Steemit and in the general press, discussing “immigration statements”, “health problems”, and “sexual scandals”, and ABSOLUTELY not focusing on real underlying economic and political issues. I feel obliged to complete this “pure facts” analysis.
So this post, is probably, not for a mass reader.
Introduction
As I explained in my last article – The World Elites: National Force Awakens – these coming elections are nothing like anything we have seen over the last 40 years. For the first time in modern history we can observe the biggest clash between 2 groups of elites : 1) the Global Financiers and 2) the Isolationists (here I am using terminology of the Russian economist Mikhail Khazin).
In the previous Part the second group was called “National Elites” in the sense that they think protection of the NATIONAL interest of the United States is more important than TRANSNATIONAL corporations and the GLOBAL financial system.
And to kick off I would like to repeat the sentence I finished my previous post with: “We can see that both parts of the Elites put forward their candidates: Hilary Clinton is coming from the side of the Financiers and Donald Trump from the side of the Isolationists.”
So, what will be different if Trump or Clinton becomes President?
Financial Policy
CLINTON: Decrease interest rates and Re-start Quantitative Easing programme
I already explained in one of my previous posts Why Global Crisis is Inevitable? Part 4 – Finale that all the growth since was 1981 was driven by the consumer and government debt increase. As a reminder, average debt per household in the UJS increased from 60-65% of annual disposable income in 1960’s to 132% by the beginning of 2008. Government debt jumped even more severely. Such a high amount of debt is only possible to maintain at current interest rates - close to 0%. So, Clinton will be lowering interest rates such that households and governments can maintain their obligations in front of TRANSNATIONAL banks (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs etc).
Obviously, Clinton is not formulating it this way. She is saying that through financing of the banking system she will be able to achieve the growth that her husband had in 1990’s… banks will be lending to corporates and consumers. However, we know that it is impossible that all the growth achieved in 1990’s was due to market expansion into ex-USSR markets. The only thing that Hillary will achieve is painful and slow decline of the world’s economy and a more severe downturn from the debt-inflated levels.
TRUMP: Increase interest rates.
Trump’s logic is simple. The economy cannot grow further because all households’ disposable income is spent on servicing accumulated debt (interest payments). Further debt increases are impossible because interest rates are already at 0%. So, in order to RE-START the economy we need to write off all the household debt. Ideally…corporate debt as well. This can be done quite easily – by increasing base interest rates: a ~2-3% raise will put the majority of households in the US into default and they will file for personal bankruptcy.
BUT, this will mean a bankruptcy for all of the INTERNATIONAL banks as all their assets will be written off….. Well, it is not a Trump’s problem, nor is it the problem of the average American household….
So it is most likely that the FED will not take actions until after the result of the Presidential elections and we can expect to see a move in either direction as early as this December.
Geopolitical Policy
CLINTON: Everything is controlled out of the US.
To maintain the global dollar financial system and maintain stability, you need to have a direct control over the regions. This control is happening via economic (IMF tranches, country ratings, tariff lifts), political and military (NATO) tools.
TRUMP: We do NOT have money to pay everyone!
I think this is self-explanatory given the Isolationists’ position: Money needs to be spent on our own economy! Political stability, must however, be maintained. That’s why we need to start looking for regional partners and rely on them. The idea is each regional partners get their own territories with an obligation to maintain stability and peace in the region. The U.S. will NOT influence these regional decisions. However, at a higher, cross-regional level, the US will play a main role in resolving conflicts.
Contrary and as explained above, from the Financiers’ point of view, these potential regional leaders, by no means should gain strength!
This conflict we can observe already now:
Middle East
We can see that in the Middle East region Hillary Clinton supports Saudi Arabia and Israel, while the current Secretary of the State John Kerry (who is by all means a representative of the Isolationists) supports Iran, such the US completely removed 30-year old sanctions.
One might ask: “What is the difference between Iran and Saudi Arabia?” Both are big countries… both have oil reserves….
The difference is the following. Iran is a self-fulfilling economy. Over the last 30 years Iran was under sanctions and was able to survive and provide social stability in the region WITHOUT any help from the US. At the same time, Saudi Arabia will not be able to survive without economic (high oil price), investment and political support from the United States.
China
From Trump’s perspective, China is a friend. Although more than 40% of Chinese exports go to the US. Trump will stop this, moving production back to the US - that’s why China needs to look for new markets. The only comparable market is Europe and China has already launched “New Silk Roads” to Europe
The Financiers can NOT allow China to strengthen; hence they are launching 2 projects: The TTIP (transatlantic partnership between the US and Europe) and the TTP (transpacific partnership between the US and all other Asian countries apart from China). And we could see that Hillary Clinton up until recently was very much supporting both of these partnerships. Trump, oppositely, was FIRMLY against both!
Europe
As soon as the European National Elites understood that through the TTIP the US is planning to penetrate the European markets they tried to stop it. The UK announced that they will bring forward the Brexit referendum (which eventually happened, and I need to write a separate post on that). The French President, Francois Holland, announced that France will not sign the TTIP. Brussels announced that the TTIP will be concluded only if all 28 countries ratify it (which clearly can’t be done because of the French announcement and the Hungarian position).
As soon as these announcements against the TTIP had been made, both Brussels and France (Nice) experienced terrorist attacks.
A similar story is happening with Russia as a regional leader. Trump is openly saying – we need to make friendship with Russia. The Turkish president, Erdogan, understanding that the Russian market is the only left after the failed deal with Europe, wrote a letter to Putin. Shortly after, terrorist attacks happened in the Turkish airport (with Russian passports found, of course) and an attempt at a state coup. At the same time we could see a massive public press attack on Putin regarding his involvement in corrupt offshore bank accounts in Panama and his DIRECT participation in the murder of the ex Russian spy Litvinenko.
Conclusion
In this article I have summarised what both Trump and Clinton will mean for the US and the World. Your turn to decide which side you prefer!