Crypto Twitter has been unusually quiet lately. Instead of the usual flurry of tweets, I'm lucky to see one or two new ones on my feed every 20 minutes. What gives? Well, it's simple. The market took a nosedive, and when cryptos go down, everyone seems to go into hibernation mode.
What could have triggered this dump? One possibility is the SEC's recent assessment that altcoins like SOL, DASH, MATIC, AXS, and others might be classified as securities. Mind you, this is just speculation, not a certainty.
Regardless, the market decided it was time to tank, even though we haven't witnessed any major delistings of these coins. The SEC, spearheaded by Garry Gensler, seems to be on an anti-crypto crusade, though he himself is still grappling with the question of whether ETH is a security or not. The FUD seems to be primarily brewing within the United States, while the EU is preparing to enforce a new set of regulations next year.
Does that mean we should be celebrating these regulations? Not really. But at least there's some semblance of clarity in the EU when it comes to crypto, whereas America appears to be shooting itself in the foot with its recent crackdown.
Most altcoins are down 80% to 90% from their all-time highs, and it's been over a year since the market peaked. Yet, the majority is still panicking at the slightest whiff of FUD, selling at rock bottom prices in the hope of buying high when the market eventually recovers—which, in my opinion, it will.
2023 has seen a modest rebound, and if I recall correctly, 2019 was quite similar. However, amidst all the panic and FUD, many fail to recognize that 2019 presented the best buying opportunities for altcoins ahead of the 2021 rally. So, what if 2023 follows the same pattern?
What if we don't encounter these current discounts in 2024 as we approach the halving? I don't know about you, but I firmly believe that the halving is the primary catalyst, if not the sole driver, of bull markets in crypto. Some may argue that the crypto markets have merely mimicked the traditional markets, and halvings might be mere coincidences. Even so, we're still in promising territory.
The S&P 500 is on the verge of hitting a new all-time high, and if Bitcoin (crypto) is set to follow suit (it usually lags behind the traditional markets), then the worst is likely behind us. However, many crypto investors can't stomach the daily corrections of 20% to 30%, even though we've experienced them in every cycle.
It's obvious that we won't reach the moon in one swift leap, right? There's a lot of frightened money out there waiting for certainty before buying back in, having sold near the bottom. But here's the thing—it won't happen. Certainty is a rare commodity in crypto, and taking a micro view of things won't be of much help. Zoom out, and you'll see things for what they are—a normal price action.
You know the saying: "scared money don't make money"...
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian