Remember when these things were made of silver?
When I was a kid I used to think that antique coins got their value from being old and somewhat rare. Turns out the vast majority of value that comes from old coins is simply the fact that there is actually a lot of silver in them. Even "junk silver" coins can be 90% pure silver. That 10% makes them "junk" (not "fine) but the other 90% is still quite valuable.
But I don't want to talk about fiat today.
I'd rather talk about Hive. Our volatility is quite high right now. Hive is easy to pump, and it's easy to dump as well, as we are learning the hard way all over again in this moment. Still, now is a pretty good time to DCA and figure out where to be buying if that's possible in your personal circumstance.
Floor price is still 10 cents.
It's all about perspective isn't it? If we look at the image above, the high price has a frowny face and the low price has a smile. That's because when you're buying something you want to pay the lowest price possible, right? In crypto when the price is low the vast majority of us have the frowny face, even if we are buying. That's because we're so in the red already and most of us tend to be degen gamblers with very little dry powder on the outside looking for a good price to get in.
This all-in mentality is one of the worst aspects of crypto. We tend to make a decision and want to maximize the outcome of that decision. Within the context of crypto, mix/max is a terrible way to do business. Once you all in a 50 cents, price going lower is never helpful. The same is not true for users who responsibly DCA.
Bankroll
If you're playing poker and you run out of money, the party is over. pack it up and go home, you're no longer allowed to play without value to stake in the game. Crypto is a bit different than this, as the price almost never crashes to zero unless the protocol experiences complete systemic failure. Rather in crypto the price going down COULD BE an opportunity for everyone, but in these circumstances it is only an opportunity for an elite few: the ones with steady hands who DCA and ALWAYS have money left over after buying in.
Again, floor price for Hive is 10 cents, so we really should not be all in on it at any time unless the price is around that 10 cent level. 10-15 cents is the ultimate buy range, as many around here can attest to. As the title of this post implies, I think 25 cents has long been an amazing support to focus on. Remember when 80 cents was the support? Happened in 2018 and 2022, but always seems to crack to the downside. It's a shame, I was really thinking we might be able to hold there. No such luck, but again the buyers are getting a massive discount here at sub 30 cents.
If Hive, and crypto in general, could gain a bit more stability, far more people would be willing to park their money within this space. There's no intrinsic rule of crypto that says we need to be volatile, and it certainly doesn't help that deflationary economics and supply hardcaps are touted as the end-all be-all solution to fractional reserve banking. Crypto has a LOT to learn. Stability is key, and everyone just shrugs and thinks that nothing we do could make these networks more stable. I'd talk more on this if I hadn't written so many other posts to this effect.
Certainly there is an argument to be make that Hive can easily reach the floor price of 10 cents again given the current situation at hand. The recession we are in could easily push us to the floor. From this perspective, it might be smarter to just wait until the storm is over and the FED is forced to pivot back down to 0% rates + QE. History shows that the economy often bottoms when the FED stops lowering rates, at the end of the pivot, not the beginning. We could be another year away from lows, which is depressing, but there is a lot to look forward to.
For example, how many projects are going to be launched on Hive next year? So many... as quite a few of these projects have been pushed back and haven't been released yet. Infrastructure like HAF makes it even easier to build here, so that has to be taken into consideration as well. Anything we can do to pave these roads and stop hacking our way through this digital jungle is a high priority and worth keeping tabs on.
So while the market can still go lower, it is still comically oversold even now. I value Bitcoin at around $50k, and Hive at around 80 cents. I would not be surprised to see us bounce to these levels at any given time for any given reason, which is why DCA is so important even in these dismal circumstances.
The level of adoption crypto is getting during this recession is a thing of legend. If we take a look at Africa, we see how truly insane things are getting. These African governments are outright banning crypto in every way they know how, and yet the citizens are adopting crypto faster than anywhere in the world. Truly a sight to behold, and I believe we can use this as a template for what will happen in other countries on other continents later down the line.
Given the oversold nature of crypto combined with record-breaking adoption, I have to assume that the bull market that comes out of this slump is going to be one of the biggest runs we have ever seen. When will it happen? History is still on the 4-year cycle as far as we can tell, so... 2025? Yeah, it's a long time, but it also could be an x1000 from where we are today considering development, adoption, and the oversold nature of this recession after 3 MT-GOX level events in rapid succession.
Conclusion
Hopefully whales on Hive will move to defend the 25 cent level. If not we go lower, which isn't the end of the world, especially for users looking to consolidate during the bear market. Regardless of the price, development continues. In fact, development seems to grow in spite of the market. The bear is for building, even if the ride is quite bumpy.