Trading the crypto markets is competitive by nature.
You win, someone else loses. That's just the way the cookie crumbles. Luckily crypto is such an absurdly good performing asset that we can get handily crushed in the trading game and still become filthy rich. If crypto goes x10 and my bags only go x5, I got annihilated in the trading game. But can I complain? Not really. x5 is obviously better than anything one could ever hope to achieve in the stock market within a similar timeframe. Everything is relative.
#wagmi
In my Post from Feb 22, I made some claims about the market.
I even cooked up this ridiculous chart:
While all of crypto Twitter was losing their shit, I was being rational and noting how much resistance we had at every single $1k tick from $23k to $22k to $21k to $20k. So where have we ended up 1 week later?
Exactly what I said would happen.
That we'd catch support at $23k, which is exactly what we did. You'll also notice that on Feb 23/24 the price wicked under $23k and quickly popped back up. There's actually an interesting story there. One of the perks to wasting so much time on crypto Twitter.
Turns out on both of those days massively overleveraged multimillion dollar longs were being headhunted on an exchange called ByBit. Never heard of this exchange before but it seems to be based in Singapore.
These ridiculously overleveraged long/short positions have happened a lot in the last week, and every single one of them has been head-hunted and vaporized with BTC price eventually centering back to the $23k area. These degenerates need to learn to buy spot and be patient because this is Ludacris ludicrous.
You'll notice that a golden cross has just happened between the MA(100) and the MA(200) on Bitcoin. Again another bullish reversal signal that I expect will play out over the next two weeks. The FTX contagion is long gone, but bears keep assuming markets are rational within this broken economy. A move like this fully solidifies $20k as a near uncrackable support line at this juncture. Wouldn't be surprised to return to this level eventually but it might be 9 months from now after a massive bull rally has already happened and everyone has gone full FOMO all over again.
Another piece of data of massive note is BTC hashrate.
Once again we see all time highs for Bitcoin's hash level and "security" of the chain. Honestly though I question how "secure" this really is. Cheap energy is scarce, and participation rate in the mining game is dwindling worldwide as the reward for mining goes into negative ROI. The real ones are being priced out. Average Joe can't compete, and I don't see this as a great sign for the network.
Imagine talking about how secure the Bitcoin network is even as it comes under a 51% attack. Is that's what's going on here? I doubt it, but it is pretty painfully obvious that mining is more centralized now than it ever has been. The math and price of energy seem to guarantee it. Maximalists don't care, because maximalists are delusional. High number means high security. Period. There is no reasoning with these people.
The other side of this coin is that miners may be planning for the future here in a big way. If miners are anticipating a much higher spot price for Bitcoin then it makes way more sense to be setting up these hashing warehouses BEFORE Bitcoin goes up. The scrambling of doing such things while we are in the middle of a bull run almost never works out. Mining equipment is cheap right now. The real cost is cheap electricity, if you can find it. Hashrate and price are often connected, so maybe this is just yet another signal that Bitcoin is wildly oversold as we move into a potential summer bull run (targeting the $50k range).
I would be remiss if I didn't say I'm a little worried about Hive's position here. The 44.4 cent level that I recommended everyone buy at seems to be doing its job, but we all know how support on Hive can fall away at the drop of a dime. While BTC's ultimate support is around $20k, Hive's is sitting at the MA(100) around 37 cents. That's not a bad spot to go all in assuming we actually flash crash to that level.
I bought another $700 worth of Hive today at this price and unwrapped another 5450 Hive from the CUB bridge. I only have 2000 HBD left to yolo all in if we crash a little more. Really struggling not just shoving all in like the true degen that I am. Trying to maintain at least some semblance of a balanced position so I can buy more given any dips. Really hoping to capitalize on any moves that Bitcoin makes to the upside given the recent golden cross.
Taking a look at Hive's value relative to Bitcoin we see that Hive is still firmly trading within the given channel of moving averages. This implies that we are basically just waiting for Bitcoin to spike up above the dreaded $25k resistance line before we can expect to get anymore action on our ragtag chain.
I am providing a little bit of liquidity to this market and one of my sell orders was at 2500 sats. You can imagine how annoyed I was that our last pump brought us to 2400 sats. So close but no cigar for Edicted. That's alright though because the real level I'm looking to sell is closer to around 4000 sats. Go big or go home, amirite? As long as we trade within this pocket it shouldn't be too hard to provide some liquidity and make some money along the way. As we can see today the price wicked down exactly to the MA(50)/MA(100) area that will soon experience a golden cross. I doubt this cross will do anything but ya never know.
I'd say all in all our ability to track Bitcoin is actually pretty impressive considering other tokens that consistently underperform in the long term. Hive is special like that I guess. Wen 10k sats per Hive? I need me some more BigCorns.
I told a maximalist yesterday that if Hive crashes to zero I will sell everything back into BTC and be a maximalist along with everyone else. Would you ragequit as well? I was being 100% serious. If Hive can't make it then well, Bitcoin only imo. Live and learn. I highly doubt this will happen but it's always good to have a backup plan. Maximalists are very welcoming of people who used to be "shitcoiners". Thems the rules of the cult. Bitcoin only.
Conclusion
Should I yolo my last 2000 HBD into Hive and hope for the best, or play it safe and wait for that dippity dip? Honestly at this point it might not matter much. $2000 used to be a metric shit-ton of money for me. After all, I was working in an Amazon warehouse part time for four years straight. Not a lot of money in the "warehouse associate" game.
Now I'm full time Hive and I've been thinking a lot more about my long term future here. Does not stop me from making these speculation posts from time to time. Window shopping is fun. People like the hype. Permabull, hopium, so on and so forth, "for entertainment purposes only".
Full moon on March 7th.
--- @brianoflondon